www.270towin.com

Post your prediction for the the upcoming election
using a screenshot of your electoral map above
and a brief reasoning if you like but keep in depth
election discussion in RT’s thread.

pwcom.proboards.com/thread/3616/usa-election-2020

Throw the winner some PW bucks & likes,
closest wins.

I did something in similar in 2016, sandylea won the closest.


My prediction:

My prediction:



I think PA and Wisconsin stay close with Biden winning and those are the states that Trump tries to steal/win back (not that it helps him because he still loses even with those states). Arizona flips blue because of the pro-McCain turnout and he probably contests that one too in order to get above 270. Florida and Texas are close but stay red.

From the other thread:


And my map would look like this:





I gave Trump the South due because there is active suppression going on, and I expect they will be able to disqualify enough of the early vote to cancel out Biden's lead. Blue Texas may happen, but again, suppression is pretty hard there, so I think they can hold for this election with disqualifications. Biden I think already locked up the West and I do not see hardcore disqualification there. Iowa has some funky stuff going on, so gave it to Trump but the rest of the of mid-west I gave Biden. One of them is likely to go Trump, but not sure which. Penn going Biden. Whether this holds in court remains to be seen, but the model I have does not require Biden to keep it. All of these will be weird since they are heavily monitored by both sides with constant lawsuits but this favors democrats I think since disqualification will be tough here. Did not split the districts, but 1 will go red in Maine and 1 blue in Nebraska. New Hampshire is going blue, not sure why people think it will swing. Now I fixed the map, Ohio is a legit 50/50 toss up so I gave to Trump.

Overall, Biden takes the election in a moderate lead, and Trump sues to overturn the results of Penn and Wis, Mich or Minn to give him the 270 he needs to win.

The map I think will happen sees Texas, Flordia, NC and Georgia flipping giving Biden a landslide victory, but for a prediction model based on data, this the one above is a safer option biasing Trump in close races due GOP efforts to toss votes.

C has the same one I went to post, basically giving Trump any states he had before that are within the margin of error. RT’s is generally my best case scenario.

Oct 31, 2020 21:00:58 GMT mikec said:

C has the same one I went to post, basically giving Trump any states he had before that are within the margin of error. RT’s is generally my best case scenario.

Its funny too because my map is basically what all the legit polls are pointing towards right now. Florida is currently grey/tied and Texas has flipped between grey and light red for the last few days. So I gave them to red because that's likely how it ends up anyway.

The rest I just made whatever colour they were when I clicked the map. So depending on margin of error and voter suppression (I can't believe i had to type that like its a normal thing), my map should be what we end up with on Tuesday.

EDIT: actually thats not entirely true. Georgia is currently light blue but I changed it to red because I would be very surprised if it stays that way. So if the polls are right it would be even more of a landslide than what my map shows.

Of the two light blue states that are normally red (Arizona being the other), it seems like there's a stronger chance Arizona flips).

Oct 31, 2020 23:00:57 GMT RT said:

Oct 31, 2020 21:00:58 GMT mikec said:

C has the same one I went to post, basically giving Trump any states he had before that are within the margin of error. RT’s is generally my best case scenario.

Its funny too because my map is basically what all the legit polls are pointing towards right now. Florida is currently grey/tied and Texas has flipped between grey and light red for the last few days. So I gave them to red because that's likely how it ends up anyway.

The rest I just made whatever colour they were when I clicked the map. So depending on margin of error and voter suppression (I can't believe i had to type that like its a normal thing), my map should be what we end up with on Tuesday.

EDIT: actually thats not entirely true. Georgia is currently light blue but I changed it to red because I would be very surprised if it stays that way. So if the polls are right it would be even more of a landslide than what my map shows.

Of the two light blue states that are normally red (Arizona being the other), it seems like there's a stronger chance Arizona flips).

Yeah I’m fairly cynical about things going against historical trend, so you have just about every state I think Biden has a good shot in.

Our two maps differ by NC RT . In NC today they just pepper sprayed people marching to vote who kneeled for George Floyd. That is why I save that state to Trump. Also they are tossing a lot of the black votes attached to mail in ballots saying the signatures are not a close enough match. Biden needs to up a lot more than 3 for me to believe he will overall suppression effects. The entire state is politically set up to deny democrats power despite democrats being the majority.

While I hit the same conclusions that Mike did, when races were close I gave them to Biden for places that are likely to engage in suppression, which would keep the trends in favor of the GOP.  Once the GOP has power in a state, they can suppress fairly easily, so you need to have a greater lead to win the states.  I do think some may flip, but not it is more likely that Biden wins, then votes are disqualified after the election to turn the areas back to Trump by tiny margins.  

And yeah we should not be talking about voter suppression in a free country in this day and age.  But since we are, I would love to see a short civics questionnaire be attached to the ballot <.<  Like name the two houses of congress or what does GOP mean and if you cannot you do not get to vote.  GOP would SCREAM about it and it would be hilarious.  

Oct 31, 2020 19:00:51 GMT c said:

I think this is pretty close, I'd add Arizona for Trump and have him at 283.
Either Trump wins or a blue landslide...
My surprise is one of: MN, WI or MI goes red

I have zero faith in this country right now.....

Nah, just kidding:



Though he's polling better than I ever expected, I have little faith in Biden winning; Trumpism still runs rampant. I think it definitely could be closer than what I'm predicting though. Either way, we're fucked. Wish I was living in Australia, Canada or UK right now, must be nice.

Edit: Woops, I meant to have Colorado going blue on here. Disregard that fuck up.

You wish you were living in the UK?

Fuck, I didn't know it was that bad.

Alternate scenario...

Nov 1, 2020 15:48:03 GMT Todd said:

You wish you were living in the UK?

Fuck, I didn't know it was that bad.

Yeah at least want to live in Canada where we are basically the UK with more snow and our racists are still closeted.

For now. Remember Americans can come to visit and will export our extremism and COVID to Canada when borders reopen.

What's wrong with the UK?

They have socialist healthcare and do not allow guns. Have you seen that shithole country? They completely collapsed. People cannot afford to own a car because gas prices are so high, the government take 70 percent of your wages and they cannot afford full cups of coffee so they have to drink tiny ones instead, they cannot afford to leave tips for waiters. Hell you have to bring your own pillow to the hospital when go, imagine that. Stores also charge you for bags and people cannot even afford mailboxes.

They have no pride in country and no one would ever fly their flag proudly. Hell they do not even celebrate Halloween, can you believe that? Another thing the socialists took away.

But God, what slobs they are. They leave their food at the table when they are done eating, they do not refrigerate things like eggs and it is always hot as they do not believe in air conditioning, pools or even fans. People also will walk out straight in front of your car. They also piss in the fucking streets.

This is the America that Joe Biden wants.  One where slobs piss in the streets.

Nov 1, 2020 22:23:29 GMT c said:

For now. Remember Americans can come to visit and will export our extremism and COVID to Canada when borders reopen.

At this rate we will be starting our own wall in early 2021.

Nov 1, 2020 22:29:36 GMT Ness said:

What's wrong with the UK?

The people there are deranged!
They took their worst criminals, put them on a boat and sent them here...




Seriously, I have been to the UK...
If I lived there, I would be like you criminals stay here... We're going.

Nov 1, 2020 17:22:48 GMT pduh said:

Please explain

Kanye blowout!!! Except for DC.

Biden has a better chance to win Mississippi than losing Mass where he is up 40 points.

Ah the Contingent election situation.  This would make Nancy president for a while

An even more likely tie scenario.

mikec, what happens if there is a tie?

Trump retains. Time limit draw!

Nov 2, 2020 8:05:18 GMT System said:

Nov 1, 2020 17:22:48 GMT pduh said:

Please explain

I wasn’t actually serious about that lol 

Nov 2, 2020 23:48:31 GMT nazzer said:

mikec, what happens if there is a tie?

As I understand it - State Delgations in the House of Representatives will choose the President, so there’d be one state per vote, which Republicans would currently control but could change I guess. The Senate would decide the Vice President. So Trump-Harris maybe?!?

Nov 3, 2020 1:19:29 GMT mikec said:

Nov 2, 2020 23:48:31 GMT nazzer said:

mikec , what happens if there is a tie?

As I understand it - State Delgations in the House of Representatives will choose the President, so there’d be one state per vote, which Republicans would currently control but could change I guess. The Senate would decide the Vice President. So Trump-Harris maybe?!?

Could you imagine the bloodbath in the Senate? There is no way 10 people don't put their hand up for the job...
I do think the tie is impossible, I cannot see any way where Trump takes PA but loses NC and some of the other requirements.