Well now, turns out that tweet from the White House that got everyone's panties in a twist turned out not to be entirely inaccurate. Gasoline futures dropped 10% in the last month while cost of gas at the pump only dropped 5%. Since the White House posted said tweet calling it out, gasoline prices dropped 15% more with fears of artificial asset inflation being a huge driver.  Same was seen with oil future today as people are unloading on fears that they will be stuck holding when oil corrects to $65, as is expected.

Bet if Bezos paid for gasoline instead of pushing the cost to employees, he would be far more concerned.

Sure the oil companies will have their hands out when the recession they forced hits.  Wall Street already saying if rates hit 3.5% it will trigger a recession.  At 2.5% now.  

So Russia has started turning off the gas and Europe is pretty much capitulating in the knowledge that Germany is beyond screwed.

Fox has been letting people know that lower energy costs are a bad thing, and the economy will collapse if the price of gas continues to fall.

Fear is always in demand.

Jul 11, 2022 21:25:42 GMT c said:

Fox has been letting people know that lower energy costs are a bad thing, and the economy will collapse if the price of gas continues to fall.

Nobody sees any irony in Biden pressuring the Saudi's to pump more oil while hailing the end of oil in his own country?
Why would anyone in OPEC be even remotely sympathetic to Biden's case? It makes ZERO economic sense to lower the cost of a product in the short term than is going to be phased out in the medium term.
Even though... That is literally impossible to do.
Have a read of how much energy is required to recharge the incredible number of prpposed electric cars overnight.
Electric cars that don't even exist....

Jul 11, 2022 21:26:26 GMT @ness said:

Fear is always in demand.

Yes, but in this case it is warranted.
It has developed to whole new levels of insane in Australia.
The banks are so afraid of woke campaigns against them that they won't even lend money to a fossil fuel company.
Imagine.... Coal fired power plants and oil rugs that can't get funding to do any upgrades for 50 years.... Until the magic leprechauns come to power our society with their harvested unicorn farts.

Biden needs to put an end to Musk's New Green Deal once and for all.

In free societies that are not socialist empires, there is still plenty of cash for fossil fuel. That is our largest export between the mix of oil, refined oil and natural gas. Funny how you all are freaking out over the impact of the New Green Deal when it did not happen here at all, but seems to have affected your countries. Maybe the rage should not be at AOC but your own leaders.

Jul 12, 2022 0:51:26 GMT c said:

Biden needs to put an end to Musk's New Green Deal once and for all.

In free societies that are not socialist empires, there is still plenty of cash for fossil fuel. That is our largest export between the mix of oil, refined oil and natural gas. Funny how you all are freaking out over the impact of the New Green Deal when it did not happen here at all, but seems to have affected your countries. Maybe the rage should not be at AOC but your own leaders.

It hasn't happened here either, but the problem is that it is sitting on the books.
We just had a change of government to a much more vocal opponent of fossil fuels and because of the threat of this happening it has stalled investments in fossil fuels and also caused the bank decisions to hide from the fossil fuels that are keeping their very lights on.

Here is the truth: There will be no meaningful action on climate change until there is bilateral support for it from major parties.
Without it we ar4e going to have a cycle of whiplash politics where progressive governments get voted in because of the hysteria on climate change, then voted out when the pain hits at the gas pump and in the heating bill.
The only way we get any sort of progress is to eliminate this.

It also needs to be multi-national, there is no point reducing the energy consumption in one country only to have the manufacturing shift to another that isn't bound by the same rules.
I see no way forward without carbon tariffs and I don't think that will be politically popular for whoever enforces them.

Further comment, the fact that there are so few "Good" electric vehicle options out there is not a sign that automotive manufacturers are addicted to fossil fuels, it is a sign that these things are hard to do well and at scale. Tesla does neither of these two things.

When Toyota has electric options for all the models in it's fleet, that will be the time we can have a serious talk about electric vehicles.


EDIT: Tesla is such a freaking meme.
If Toyota or GM tried to get away with Musk's quality and safety issues they would be drawn and quartered in the public arena...
Yet, look at their stock price:




It was more that the next 10 Automakers combined... And the other companies are actually profitable and ship cars on scale.





What happened to those who followed the Pied Piper?

America does not have these problems. With lobbies there will be no meaningful action on climate change. Filibuster locks into place. So you may at risk for it, but not here.

And the debate here now is if we should take tax payer money and give it to fossil fuel companies, and how much of their taxes we should exempt them from paying. That is progressive policy in the states as far as the Senate is concerned.

Jul 12, 2022 1:19:00 GMT c said:

America does not have these problems. With lobbies there will be no meaningful action on climate change. Filibuster locks into place. So you may at risk for it, but not here.

And the debate here now is if we should take tax payer money and give it to fossil fuel companies, and how much of their taxes we should exempt them from paying. That is progressive policy in the states as far as the Senate is concerned.

Then why is Biden pressuring Exxon to pump more oil?
Why is there no appetite for investment in the US oil market?
You can argue that limiting supply is beneficial to the oil company, but in reality they are all getting ready for life after oil.

If you had a Bipartisan plan for this, then you would at least be able to negotiate consistent supply up until a projected end date.
With nothing inn writing it's like a game of musical chairs.
You will see the same thing happen with coal generation of power, we are already seeing it, who does a refit of a power station when half the political spectrum is focused on your demise.
This is not a joke.

You can pedal your anti-capitalist nonsense, but it doesn't change the reality of the situation.
I think the big energy companies are all assholes, but you have to play the cards that you are dealt.

We are where we are because people value cheap energy over most things they maintain they care about.

Jul 12, 2022 1:27:29 GMT iNCY said:

We are where we are because people value cheap energy over most things they maintain they care about.

This is true of a lot of things. People say they really care about something until it's time to pay or be mildly inconvenienced.

Jul 12, 2022 1:38:15 GMT Gyro LC said:

Jul 12, 2022 1:27:29 GMT iNCY said:

We are where we are because people value cheap energy over most things they maintain they care about.

This is true of a lot of things. People say they really care about something until it's time to pay or be mildly inconvenienced.

Yes, I couldn't agree more.

As a tangential (most likely) uninteresting side-note... As part of my theological research I was looking at the Christian concept of 'love"
In the time of Jesus the word "love" meant something very different to now.
Love was an action (a doing word) it wasn't a feeling.

What we would call love now is actually the Greek word Eros from where we get erotic, it is the "feeling" of love.
Much of what is wrong in our society is that we believe what we feel carries social and ethical importance, even if it has nothing to do with what we actually do.
I have been reading a lot of the Stoics lately, mostly Marcus Aurelius & Epictetus and I think they were on the right track...
Take the emotion out of things and see them as they are... And more importantly, see ourselves as we are.

My number one self goal for the past two or three years has been to not bullshit myself.
It is only when you face yourself as you are, that you can hope to make changes to be better.

To loop back to theology for a minute, most of where Christianity has gone wrong is the premise that "only good people go to heaven"
That is such a broken understanding of the gospel which leads people to believe Christianity is about going to heaven when you die.
There was ONE good man, Jesus and my goal should be to emulate him because of what he did.

This nonsense need to believe good things about yourself and your cause is why the West is unwinding at a more rapid pace.

I have no idea why I wrote all this... I guess I don't have any other medium to share it... Sorry Gyro LC,

Jul 12, 2022 1:27:29 GMT iNCY said:

Jul 12, 2022 1:19:00 GMT c said:

America does not have these problems. With lobbies there will be no meaningful action on climate change. Filibuster locks into place. So you may at risk for it, but not here.

And the debate here now is if we should take tax payer money and give it to fossil fuel companies, and how much of their taxes we should exempt them from paying. That is progressive policy in the states as far as the Senate is concerned.

Then why is Biden pressuring Exxon to pump more oil?
Why is there no appetite for investment in the US oil market?
You can argue that limiting supply is beneficial to the oil company, but in reality they are all getting ready for life after oil.

If you had a Bipartisan plan for this, then you would at least be able to negotiate consistent supply up until a projected end date.
With nothing inn writing it's like a game of musical chairs.
You will see the same thing happen with coal generation of power, we are already seeing it, who does a refit of a power station when half the political spectrum is focused on your demise.
This is not a joke.

You can pedal your anti-capitalist nonsense, but it doesn't change the reality of the situation.
I think the big energy companies are all assholes, but you have to play the cards that you are dealt.

We are where we are because people value cheap energy over most things they maintain they care about.

Have you looked into what these problems are?  The reason Biden said to pump more oil is the oil companies been asking for protected lands to be opened to drilling.  Biden said no because there are ton of leases currently available not being used that they asked to be released previously.

There is private investment interest in the oil market.  They do not want private investment though, they want public investment, since you do not have to pay it back. 

The main complains that oil companies have is Biden cut their welfare so they will not get billions of taxpayer money anymore.  All of these other changes that you talk about are just words, that changed nothing.  No policy was actually changed, no action actually taken, except removing the money the government paid them each year.  

Then they threw their temper tantrum and stopped refining consumer gasoline and instead went all in on jet fuel to punish him politically over the last two months and fucked themselves when they collapsed the tourism industry, and other areas of spending pissing off major conservative donors, and now are rapidly dropping costs before they elect in a true democrat majority in 2022.

And fossil fuels are on their way out.  What I am hearing now is people basically claiming we should not be using cars in the 1920's because they will need roads be built and horses do not need gas. 

As for cheap power, the coil and gas industries lobbied super hard against nuclear energy, which is far cheaper than either, with less damage to the environment.  And fusion is nearly here.  Scaling production is the last hurdle with major tests planned in the coming years to ramp it up.

Jul 12, 2022 2:23:40 GMT c said:

Jul 12, 2022 1:27:29 GMT iNCY said:

Then why is Biden pressuring Exxon to pump more oil?
Why is there no appetite for investment in the US oil market?
You can argue that limiting supply is beneficial to the oil company, but in reality they are all getting ready for life after oil.

If you had a Bipartisan plan for this, then you would at least be able to negotiate consistent supply up until a projected end date.
With nothing inn writing it's like a game of musical chairs.
You will see the same thing happen with coal generation of power, we are already seeing it, who does a refit of a power station when half the political spectrum is focused on your demise.
This is not a joke.

You can pedal your anti-capitalist nonsense, but it doesn't change the reality of the situation.
I think the big energy companies are all assholes, but you have to play the cards that you are dealt.

We are where we are because people value cheap energy over most things they maintain they care about.

Have you looked into what these problems are?  The reason Biden said to pump more oil is the oil companies been asking for protected lands to be opened to drilling.  Biden said no because there are ton of leases currently available not being used that they asked to be released previously.

There is private investment interest in the oil market.  They do not want private investment though, they want public investment, since you do not have to pay it back. 

The main complains that oil companies have is Biden cut their welfare so they will not get billions of taxpayer money anymore.  All of these other changes that you talk about are just words, that changed nothing.  No policy was actually changed, no action actually taken, except removing the money the government paid them each year.  

Then they threw their temper tantrum and stopped refining consumer gasoline and instead went all in on jet fuel to punish him politically over the last two months and fucked themselves when they collapsed the tourism industry, and other areas of spending pissing off major conservative donors, and now are rapidly dropping costs before they elect in a true democrat majority in 2022.

And fossil fuels are on their way out.  What I am hearing now is people basically claiming we should not be using cars in the 1920's because they will need roads be built and horses do not need gas. 

As for cheap power, the coil and gas industries lobbied super hard against nuclear energy, which is far cheaper than either, with less damage to the environment.  And fusion is nearly here.  Scaling production is the last hurdle with major tests planned in the coming years to ramp it up.

There are so many points her to contest:
Firstly, I agree that Nuclear Fusion is the future and realistically if we don't hit any roadblocks, we are looking at 50-100 years before we see commercially ready reactors.
Like you, I believe that Nuclear Fission is the stop-gap measure we need in the middle.

The main issue is that fission is not a competitor to coal, but to solar.
What all the analysis about solar and nuclear bypass is that we already have fully working coal power stations.
When the funding analysis is done, it always crooked it ignores the sunk capital costs in the existing infrastructure.
They also conveniently omit the costs of storage.

The other enormous cost of solar and wind is the distributed geographic nature of the solar farms, we don't have the high tension powerlines to criss cross states to gather this power, so we would need a whole electricity network.
It is why I think that small scale fission reactors are the future, install them next to existing coal power stations and even if you keep the coal plant running at 50% capacity you have reduced carbon production significantly.
The point that makes all of these projects fraught is that with Fusion on the horizon, any technology implemented today will be redundant before we get a return on investment.

Your analogy about the horse and cart is wrong.
The rest of your post was about energy, how many kwhrs do you think it takes to charge a Tesla?
It's 18.8kWh/100km if you can speak metric.


The average miles driven per year by Americans has now reached a total of 14,263 miles.

This breaks down to an average of nearly 1,200 miles driven per month.
That sum would cover almost three round trips between Los Angeles and New York. As a collective, American drivers cover 3.2 trillion miles each year, enough to take nearly 5,000 trips to the moon and back.
Which is 4.809 trillion km.
Translating to: 904.1 Billion kw/hr
The total USA consumption of power is currently: 3,902.00 bn kWhr

Which is about a 23% increase on the total electricity used today.
So not only do we have to replace our infrastructure with greener alternatives, we have to increase the capacity by a quarter.
And let us not forget that cars by nature will be recharged overnight, when electricity grids are most overloaded.

I am not saying don't do it... I am advocating having a discussion about the problem, before advocating a solution.

Inflation Numbers just dropped...
Despite interest rate rises, CPI clocked in 1.3% higher pushing up to a new 41-year high of 9.1%
I think you will get a 75 basis point hike in the next Fed adjustment....

There's talk of going straight to 100 basis points with another 75 before the end of the year... Wow.
Minimum is 75 and 75.

When does the economy slow? How hard to they have to pull that brake before the wheels lock up completely.

Jul 13, 2022 5:54:16 GMT c said:

Interest rates are 0 for at least two more years.

I guess a lot changed since November 2021 c ?

Mine as well still be 0. We only moved to 1.75. 2.50 is what industry laid out as an unacceptable level and is the point the media will scream recession and everyone will demand bailout. Most of the world is already there or passing it.

According to most US experts the rest of the world is going to crash into worldwide recession though from being too aggressive with interest rates because the max acceptable interest rate for economic growth these days is 0.  Stories routine coming out now about how the housing market is collapsing due to rate changes, and that small businesses cannot survive in a world of positive interest rates.

///

Also the June numbers do not matter as we know gas was the primary driver and they retreated on their price already.  Homes and meat also are retreating.  

///

I would have killed to be a fly on the wall for the calls between the mega-GOP donors and the oil companies.  Largest donors could have pushed on the GOP to enact a windfall tax.  Gas prices were killing most GOP industries outside of energy so had to drop them silently.  And the rate of the drop seems to imply closed doors meetings.

Wish I could understand this thread. But prob best I can't.

Bloomberg wants you to know that up to 24% of people who quit their jobs in the antiwork movement regret. This is elevated from the 15% that is more commonly. What they do not want you to put together, is 76% in their sample had no regrets and the majority that left their jobs got higher paying ones they enjoy more.

Oil companies getting destroyed in the Senate after they are claiming the reason for high gas prices if the cancellation of the Keystone pipeline, which would not have been online for a few more years still and uses a form of oil they shut down refineries for. They are claiming unless the government gives them benefits, there is no reason to increase refining.  This got countered with even when the government gives them everything they ask for, they still have not built a single refinery since 1977.

So wish Biden had the balls to do what Cali is with Insulin and allow the government to refine crude directly for cars. Then we will see production skyrocket as big oil suddenly finds all this extra refinery capacity to kill the need for government paid competition selling at cost.

They learned from the 70's oil crisis if you can control the supply, you can control the price and been doing it since increasing profit from 1 dollar per barrel refined to 25 in 15 years, with the push to go to 50 a barrel during the Ukraine conflict being beaten back for now.

Shell reports that their refining strategy is a cornerstone for their success, seeing their profits improve threefold second quarter and increase profits over a billion dollars alone.  Shell CEO straight out said last week "Demand is not that easily destroyed," when asked about the dangers of demand collapse.  Different tune this week as the price sharply was pulled back with talk of investigations by conservatives in the Senate realizing they need to win their reelections.

Jul 13, 2022 16:39:30 GMT c said:

Mine as well still be 0. We only moved to 1.75. 2.50 is what industry laid out as an unacceptable level and is the point the media will scream recession and everyone will demand bailout. Most of the world is already there or passing it.

According to most US experts the rest of the world is going to crash into worldwide recession though from being too aggressive with interest rates because the max acceptable interest rate for economic growth these days is 0.  Stories routine coming out now about how the housing market is collapsing due to rate changes, and that small businesses cannot survive in a world of positive interest rates.

///

Also the June numbers do not matter as we know gas was the primary driver and they retreated on their price already.  Homes and meat also are retreating.  

///

I would have killed to be a fly on the wall for the calls between the mega-GOP donors and the oil companies.  Largest donors could have pushed on the GOP to enact a windfall tax.  Gas prices were killing most GOP industries outside of energy so had to drop them silently.  And the rate of the drop seems to imply closed doors meetings.

EVERY SINGLE segment went up.
That isn't usually a big deal, but every segment went up AFTER the interest rate rises.

As for the amount they're cranking the rates, I don't think it helps.
The problem is not the money being spent now, the problems is the trillions of excess QE and low interest rate dollars in the economy.
Again, where did all that M2 money end up?
Crypto... Stocks... GME....




The market is a poor indicator of the overall strength of the economy...
I agree that rate hikes will crash the economy, because we never recovered from the GFC, we just papered over the cracks with easy credit and stupidity.
Without it we would look like Japan since the recession of the early 90's, stagflation and no growth.

If you're a perma-bull you think NASDAQ corrections are temporary and the market bounces back soon
Some analysts might think my Green line is where the correction should land...

In reality it could come right down to the pink line.

I am below green the line. 7500 is where I expect tech to land. Regression on the last inflection point would drop to 9000. Will not drop to the pink line as that is two inflection points back. Path regression not likely explain this rush and crash as it is not likely the result of dual casual model. We know markets stopped acting normal in 2020, events from 2011 likely would not influence them in a meaningful fashion.

Green line should end closer to 10k too due to the higher spikes at the end of the line. That higher variance of price distorts regressions and would pull this line up as the sum of squares there will be far higher.

And you should look into regression. Want to play with these charts, regression is your weapon. To get regression you look into standard deviation and variance, sum of squares, then simple ordinary least squares regression. Then get data and play with in excel or any spreadsheet program. Ignore anything that presents this stuff in matrix form, you do not need to understand that side of the math at all, and the rest of the math is simple at the step level, and mostly done by having a computer do it anyway. Multiple regression gets a bit more complex but again, if you understand the numbers that a model generates and how it works in theory the matrix math a computer and handle. But what I seen you mostly are doing bivariate things.

When reading the equations the strange E(sigma) looking thing means summation, or do this equation for each data point then sum them all. Should you see a stonehenge looking motherfucker(capital-pi) that means multiple them all instead. Will see usually n at the top and i=1 at the bottom of the symbols. This means start at 1 and go to the last case, which is n. Formally they are the upper and lower bounds of the set you are examining.

That would let you know the basics but I think what you would love is bootstrapping. It takes a distribution and resamples using the information you have about it repeatedly allowing you to get confidence intervals, which should tell you where the true value of a parameter should lay 90% of the time. I suspect what you will find if you have a go at this sort of data is those confidence intervals are massive. Can bootstrap in excel but will need an addon. R will allow you to do it all, but will need to crash R syntax. Can even make API calls from R for Bureau of Economic Data or IMF data, plus all the stock data you could dream of. R too you could in theory use for your business and it excels for data visualization shit if you ever move into consulting. Learning curve sucks, but you tend to copy, paste and modify rather than generate your own code each time.

You ever get into the statistics, hit me up, and I will help as I can without political commentary.

Edit:  And of course I forget to include what started that tangent into regression.  Look into what heteroskedasticity is.  The main different in those three regions is the increase of heteroskedasticity.  Basically the variance between data points keeps getting bigger.  When we are talking your money, this is volatile risk, you and do not want to see big swings as when it swings down you are fucked.  What always kills WSB is they see this as a fast way to make profit, but realizing what regression to the mean implies, that swings up will be followed by swings down around the hidden regression line.  Can make the greatest returns here, but it is literally playing with fire as the regression line that ultimate determines the average value of the stock can be anywhere in increasingly larger ranges.

And intersection of green and pink would be investors realizing the commercial implications of the internet and heavily investing in it. Before then they dabbed in net sales, but around that point is when people realized that Amazon's model could work and return significant gains. Basically that was the start of net commerce as we know it where everyone started to shop online.

Deviation from the green line in 2020 should be obvious. Everyone that could, businesses included, invested their stimulus cash into the market. Money dries up and people realize that these stocks depended on this free money to rise. Once that rise stopped, money left there is simply stagnant, so people reallocated the cash elsewhere, mainly real estate or energy.  Once enough do that it becomes rats fleeing a sinking ship trying to save their investments in tech.  Or pulling their stock cash to cover the damage that came from their bitcoin investments vanishing overnight.

I was reading an interesting article last night on the number of nations ready to join Sri Lanka in the complete economic collapse in their nation.
It is a significant list which relates directly to their levels of foreign debt and this is made worse by increases in interest rates.
The Sri Lankan example is one that was accelerated by gross government stupidity... But there are a lot of nations on the brink of collapse with their inflation running wildly out of control.




Once Europe hits winter, Putin has them by their balls and it looks like he is going to bypass the old Squeezaroo and go straight to ripping them off.

Damn stimulus checks ruining the world now.

When have I ever claimed in this thread that it was about stimulus checks?
It's about reckless government spending due to a period of artificially low interest rates.

The IMF lending rate to these distressed countries has gone from 1% to 2.37% in the space of a year.
It's getting pretty crazy:




arynews.tv/default-risk-imf-sets-new-condition-for-pakistan/

Crazy numbers considering most of it is likely interest and not principal.

They should just let these countries go bankrupt and be sold to China directly, instead of just becoming puppet states via the belt and road project.