I don't know what this thread is about but eight years ago I got a shitty haircut for $8. Now you can hardly get one for under $30. But, I did just get a 5% for little more than asking after working at the company for less than a year and will get a raise in February

Jokes on you most of us have NOTHING.

Clearly we need to give billionaire more tax cuts so the money finally starts to trickle down.

This is a really interesting twitter thread on just how FUBAR the US economy is...

What? You mean cut taxes and spend like drunken sailors GOP policy causes the US to not have the income it requires? COLOUR ME SHOCKED. SHOCKED I TELL YOU!!!

We clearly need to elect another Republican to cut them taxes down even more and maybe start a war with a Russian or allow another virus to decimates the economy by pretending it is not real.

Sept 10, 2022 3:32:14 GMT c said:

What? You mean cut taxes and spend like drunken sailors GOP policy causes the US to not have the income it requires? COLOUR ME SHOCKED. SHOCKED I TELL YOU!!!

We clearly need to elect another Republican to cut them taxes down even more and maybe start a war with a Russian or allow another virus to decimates the economy by pretending it is not real.

You always make this partisan, I agree the tax cuts have done zero to stimulate the economy, but the idea that this would have solved the problem is nonsense.
Every government no matter it's particular political persuasion has done nothing to avoid the impending cliff.

Biden is still spending, not saying it's remotely his fault, but he's part of the problem.

Biden is spending far, far less than the past several presidents has. Majority of the shit people are slamming Biden for spending is the mix of military and non-discretionary spending as well. GOP donors think it is a good idea to cut and run and cancel social security and medicare that people pay their entire lives into, but the vast majority of the US thinks that is a bad idea.

But hey, I will take it. These people claimed we were in a recession 6 weeks ago, so now we will enter a period of a recession of that current recession, which should be a period of economic growth as the current recession recesses.

And it remains to be said, if the US fails we take the English speaking world with us. So LET'S GO TRUMP 2024!!! We can have total worldwide economic collapse!!!  Then again, when republican is president of the US, the economy of the US is not worthy of news.  

As I expected, inflation hasn't peaked




Energy prices are crashing, but the core inflation beneath it are edging up, double the forecast. (small as that is)

That is one of the lowest monthly increases in the past 10 years for context. Only seen smaller numbers in 2015 downturn and the COVID collapse.

And shows the catch 22.  If it goes up that is hyperinflation, if it goes down it indicates a recession.  No matter what way it moves will be spun as Biden ruining the economy by the media.

Will have a great test of what causes inflation in a few weeks. The stock buyback ban ends for airlines that took COVID cash. Most airlines are on the verge of collapse it seems, and it is very likely Congress will have to bail them out despite just bailing them out two years ago. Gonna be very interesting which buyback stocks then claim they cannot run properly due to the economic situation.

Sept 13, 2022 14:44:09 GMT c said:

That is one of the lowest monthly increases in the past 10 years for context. Only seen smaller numbers in 2015 downturn and the COVID collapse.

And shows the catch 22.  If it goes up that is hyperinflation, if it goes down it indicates a recession.  No matter what way it moves will be spun as Biden ruining the economy by the media.

It's not a small move in core CPI, at 0.6% it's a big number. Gas prices have eased which makes the overall number look better, but as far as general consumption is concerned, most other things are up... A lot.
Markets tanked on the news as it pretty much guarantees another 0.75 rate increase.

Everyone on mainstreet is acutely aware of rising prices but rate rises haven't yet bitten hard enough to change spending habits.

But of the last 120 months, how many were higher than .6%? Not a whole lot. Maybe 15 or so I saw last night. During the Trump economy, which was considered very strong until COVId was 1 to 2 the entire time.

Sept 13, 2022 22:52:07 GMT c said:

But of the last 120 months, how many were higher than .6%? Not a whole lot. Maybe 15 or so I saw last night. During the Trump economy, which was considered very strong until COVId was 1 to 2 the entire time.

0.6 annually would be 7.2 which is astronomical.
It is also worth noting that 0.6 is on top of where we had already been which was already overcooked:




Seems like the markets have spoken on the numbers:




The markets will probably bounce back because it seems the worlds longest bull-run has conditioned a whole generation of investors that stocks always go up, regardless of the fundamentals.

This is frightening

Wholesale inflation down .5 from July. Guessing this decrease will not be passed down.

S&P 500 everyone said was greatly inflated. A correction should have been expected.

Sept 15, 2022 1:54:43 GMT c said:

Wholesale inflation down .5 from July. Guessing this decrease will not be passed down.

S&P 500 everyone said was greatly inflated. A correction should have been expected.

That's the whole problem mate, everything is inflated and all of the Fed's QE is sitting in assets of one sort or another.
Unless we can deflate the prices of the assets this is going to be an ugly recession where we grind the value away through strangling the working class.

Personally, I do not give a fuck about the working class in the US. They make at least 50k a year, that is more than enough to live off of. That is 5 times what the federal government says I am worthy of living off of. They can cry me a river about not being able to afford their mortgages in suburbia while they work from home.

Sept 15, 2022 12:14:42 GMT c said:

Personally, I do not give a fuck about the working class in the US. They make at least 50k a year, that is more than enough to live off of. That is 5 times what the federal government says I am worthy of living off of. They can cry me a river about not being able to afford their mortgages in suburbia while they work from home.

This is the problem though isn't it?
Everyone cares about themselves, but to get anything done you need the support of the majority, who for the most part live in the middle class.
You are asking people to take food out of their mouth and put it in yours.
It is a tough ask, when everyone is telling they are doing it tougher than they ever have before... Which is false, but fear wins elections.

The middle class in the US is down to less than 30%.

The US is becoming increasingly poor. 56% of American would have to cut their food budget to pay for an expected $1000 bill. 20% could put it on credit, 10% would borrow it, and the other 26% are basically fucked. Only 44% of Americans even have $1000 or more in savings.

Things are a lot tougher here than they were in the 1950's by far. Poverty is increasing, not decreasing. You know how math works, inequality means the richer the rich get here, the less the rest of society has. And in the past 2 years, the rich got a whole lot richer. The purebreed healthy white man is doing better, not the rest of us. We are getting the shaft hard as fuck. 10% of the country cannot afford to eat regularly. In red states this goes up to nearly 20%. The levels as India. Thankfully I am in a blue state that gives me food stamps. I get $280 now a month in CT. In Georgia I would be getting $9.

So no, no tears here for people who have 5 to 10 times more than I do. And frankly the middle class should be pissed off as well. The reason they are losing wealth is can't get blood from stone, so the rich now target the middle class to get their profits. The poor saw their incomes rise about 50% in the fight for $15, the middle class got maybe 10% if they quit and went to a new job.  If they were idiots and stayed then are making about 5% less after inflation.  

US banks getting called out hard for not passing on increasing interest rates to savers while making records profits. They are also talking about how it may be time to break up some of the banks again.

Your dollar is strong right now. Canada raised interest rates and our dollar fell to yours. I'm losing $40 per every $100. I just lost $600 with the exchange, I'm currently in between breakdowns over it - not really but it did hurt. The almighty pound isn't fairing that well either. It's 1:1 right now which I can't remember the last time that was. Not in the last few decades at least.

That is kind of the great irony of this thread. Everyone is talking about the US economy is doomed because we gave some money to the poor a year ago, but instead our dollar remains strong while everyone else drops against us.

Of course as our dollar grows against international currencies, our prices still do not go down. That is just extra profit for resellers.

My friend just renegotiated her mortgage. I think she only owes like 100K and it was still an extra $200/month. Last time it was 5-6% was in early to mid 2000's. Not looking forward to when we renegotiate ours.

Everything here is just going up up but not wages.

Sept 22, 2022 22:09:33 GMT iron maiden said:

My friend just renegotiated her mortgage. I think she only owes like 100K and it was still an extra $200/month. Last time it was 5-6% was in early to mid 2000's. Not looking forward to when we renegotiate ours.

Everything here is just going up up but not wages.

If the monthly cost went up, why did she redo her mortgage? Was it not optional?

Sept 22, 2022 22:31:58 GMT Gyro LC said:

Sept 22, 2022 22:09:33 GMT iron maiden said:

My friend just renegotiated her mortgage. I think she only owes like 100K and it was still an extra $200/month. Last time it was 5-6% was in early to mid 2000's. Not looking forward to when we renegotiate ours.

Everything here is just going up up but not wages.

If the monthly cost went up, why did she redo her mortgage? Was it not optional?

No. Not sure how it works there, but here it's in 'terms'.  You can do variable and roll the dice, but most of us lock in for 3-5 years at a time.  Her 5 years was up so she can now decide to lock in again at the current rate or go variable.  Variable is usually lower its more of a gamble.  I've always locked in for 5 years. 

For instance when mom and I bought out house 2 years ago we locked in the rate of 2% over 5 years. The rate went down during those years so if we'd done variable it would have saved us then, but now we would be paying for it. This way we are guaranteed 2% for another 3 years until we have to renegotiate and hope the rate isn't crazy. Or maybe then we'll go variable for a year or two if things haven't regulated? 

Sept 22, 2022 22:40:41 GMT iron maiden said:

Sept 22, 2022 22:31:58 GMT Gyro LC said:

If the monthly cost went up, why did she redo her mortgage? Was it not optional?

No. Not sure how it works there, but here it's in 'terms'.  You can do variable and roll the dice, but most of us lock in for 3-5 years at a time.  Her 5 years was up so she can now decide to lock in again at the current rate or go variable.  Variable is usually lower its more of a gamble.  I've always locked in for 5 years. 

For instance when mom and I bought out house 2 years ago we locked in the rate of 2% over 5 years. The rate went down during those years so if we'd done variable it would have saved us then, but now we would be paying for it. This way we are guaranteed 2% for another 3 years until we have to renegotiate and hope the rate isn't crazy. Or maybe then we'll go variable for a year or two if things haven't regulated? 

I see, that sounds like what we call an ARM (adjustable rate mortgage). It's fixed for a few years then the interest rate changes based on market rate. Most houses in the US are on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. The rate doesn't change during that period. You can refinance to a different mortgage if the rate changes. My house started as a 30-year, then at 6 years in I changed it to a 20-year, and during COVID refinanced to a 15-year. Shorter term = less interest.

Sept 22, 2022 23:37:36 GMT Gyro LC said:

Sept 22, 2022 22:40:41 GMT iron maiden said:

No. Not sure how it works there, but here it's in 'terms'.  You can do variable and roll the dice, but most of us lock in for 3-5 years at a time.  Her 5 years was up so she can now decide to lock in again at the current rate or go variable.  Variable is usually lower its more of a gamble.  I've always locked in for 5 years. 

For instance when mom and I bought out house 2 years ago we locked in the rate of 2% over 5 years. The rate went down during those years so if we'd done variable it would have saved us then, but now we would be paying for it. This way we are guaranteed 2% for another 3 years until we have to renegotiate and hope the rate isn't crazy. Or maybe then we'll go variable for a year or two if things haven't regulated? 

I see, that sounds like what we call an ARM (adjustable rate mortgage). It's fixed for a few years then the interest rate changes based on market rate. Most houses in the US are on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. The rate doesn't change during that period. You can refinance to a different mortgage if the rate changes. My house started as a 30-year, then at 6 years in I changed it to a 20-year, and during COVID refinanced to a 15-year. Shorter term = less interest.

Yeah, I'm pretty sure we don't have anything like that.  Sounds good, but is it overall? 

Sept 22, 2022 21:59:48 GMT c said:

That is kind of the great irony of this thread. Everyone is talking about the US economy is doomed because we gave some money to the poor a year ago, but instead our dollar remains strong while everyone else drops against us.

Of course as our dollar grows against international currencies, our prices still do not go down. That is just extra profit for resellers.

Who is saying inflation is due to money being given to the poor? Is it tiring leading with your ideology every single bloody time?

The high dollar is not a sign of US economic strength, it is an indicator of the opposite. In times of volatility US investment dollars flee overseas markets and return to the USA. The historically high treasury bond yields make it attractive to go to interest bearing accounts. The more people exiting foreign markets the more they are buying the USD which in turn translates to a high dollar.

Sept 23, 2022 2:55:45 GMT iron maiden said:

Sept 22, 2022 23:37:36 GMT Gyro LC said:

I see, that sounds like what we call an ARM (adjustable rate mortgage). It's fixed for a few years then the interest rate changes based on market rate. Most houses in the US are on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. The rate doesn't change during that period. You can refinance to a different mortgage if the rate changes. My house started as a 30-year, then at 6 years in I changed it to a 20-year, and during COVID refinanced to a 15-year. Shorter term = less interest.

Yeah, I'm pretty sure we don't have anything like that.  Sounds good, but is it overall? 

In the Aussie market, the issue with fixed rate mortgages is that you can't pay extra into them to release earlier.
When we have a flexible rate we are able to have an offset account, which is like a savings account but instead of paying you interest, the money in this account is calculated like it had been paid off your mortgage reducing your interest. This is what I do with my mortgage, it leaves the money available but eliminates interest.

Sept 23, 2022 5:13:35 GMT iNCY said:

Sept 22, 2022 21:59:48 GMT c said:

That is kind of the great irony of this thread. Everyone is talking about the US economy is doomed because we gave some money to the poor a year ago, but instead our dollar remains strong while everyone else drops against us.

Of course as our dollar grows against international currencies, our prices still do not go down. That is just extra profit for resellers.

Who is saying inflation is due to money being given to the poor? Is it tiring leading with your ideology every single bloody time?

The high dollar is not a sign of US economic strength, it is an indicator of the opposite. In times of volatility US investment dollars flee overseas markets and return to the USA. The historically high treasury bond yields make it attractive to go to interest bearing accounts. The more people exiting foreign markets the more they are buying the USD which in turn translates to a high dollar.

People spent two years screaming about COVID relief and how it would ruin the dollar due to the feds expanding the money supply.   Now it appears the dollar is stronger than ever and corporate profits are increasing at record rates.