Not sure if this is the right thread for it, but aside from inflation, it's doubly compounded negatively by the fact you're not even getting what you're paying more for now. Home wrapper (siding, etc.) was talking about the quality of construction products becoming and being such utter shit that everyone should absolutely avoid any new homes built 2020-2022. And yet these new homes, at least around here, seem to be listing for 150%-200% of what they should...

Even if the bottom does drop out, I do wonder how long it'll take quality to rebound and be closer to a 1:1 ratio like it was once upon a time.

Oct 2, 2022 11:40:21 GMT 🤯 said:

Not sure if this is the right thread for it, but aside from inflation, it's doubly compounded negatively by the fact you're not even getting what you're paying more for now. Home wrapper (siding, etc.) was talking about the quality of construction products becoming and being such utter shit that everyone should absolutely avoid any new homes built 2020-2022. And yet these new homes, at least around here, seem to be listing for 150%-200% of what they should...

Even if the bottom does drop out, I do wonder how long it'll take quality to rebound and be closer to a 1:1 ratio like it was once upon a time.

A similar issue here, there is not enough of anything which is pushing prices up.



In this photo you can see that the studs are being made up of multiple pieces of short timber.

Deutsche Bank is also teetering, how to the central banks reign in inflation when some of the world's biggest banks are in trouble?

If central banks change tack to keep these institutions afloat with bond purchases, the markets roar back to life and hyper inflation will be inevitable.

Oct 2, 2022 12:07:44 GMT iNCY said:

Oct 2, 2022 11:40:21 GMT 🤯 said:

Not sure if this is the right thread for it, but aside from inflation, it's doubly compounded negatively by the fact you're not even getting what you're paying more for now. Home wrapper (siding, etc.) was talking about the quality of construction products becoming and being such utter shit that everyone should absolutely avoid any new homes built 2020-2022. And yet these new homes, at least around here, seem to be listing for 150%-200% of what they should...

Even if the bottom does drop out, I do wonder how long it'll take quality to rebound and be closer to a 1:1 ratio like it was once upon a time.

A similar issue here, there is not enough of anything which is pushing prices up.



In this photo you can see that the studs are being made up of multiple pieces of short timber.

Here that would be caught by inspectors… but every state is different. That said I work In The building materials industry. Material quality is way down. Even some of the expensive stuff is shit.

It's not illegal here if you join the timbers correctly All34LOL, but I would think you have a greater chance of cracks in the drywall later here.

The issue here isn't that people are cutting costs, it's that they simply can't get materials.
We have and a strong of large builders here going bankrupt because they have fixed price and fixed term contracts signed with customers before the world went to hell.

The only bright side at the moment is that freight appears to be coming down... Which we would normally cheer for, but in the current climate it could be flagging collapsing demand.

I went to look at a new car the other day and the dealership quoted 14 months best case scenario... So that is still crazy.

Fucking hell, there is a real strong chance that Credit Suisse and Deutsche Bank will get bailed out by the US if needed. Our banks bought their CDS, and they fall now our banks fall. And our investment banking systems knows the best investments you can make is buying votes.

US market soaring this morning with the Dow up 2% so far. Clearly market does not believe that these banks will fail.

Oct 3, 2022 14:19:23 GMT c said:

US market soaring this morning with the Dow up 2% so far. Clearly market does not believe that these banks will fail.

The reason, is that the market has convinced itself that the Fed will pivot to stabilize the economy the way that has been done in the UK.
So the bad news on Credit Suisse is seen as good news, because people infer that money printing will restart.

That is how addicted the market is to QE and why the rate rises haven't even come close to blunting the irrational exuberance of the market.
This bear trap will likely continue until Powell makes a public statement about staying the course with high interest rates and then the markets will capitulate again.

Literally insane that the market is inverse how it should be behaving
Bad news is good news and good news is bad news.

Oct 3, 2022 22:52:01 GMT iNCY said:

Oct 3, 2022 14:19:23 GMT c said:

US market soaring this morning with the Dow up 2% so far. Clearly market does not believe that these banks will fail.

The reason, is that the market has convinced itself that the Fed will pivot to stabilize the economy the way that has been done in the UK.
So the bad news on Credit Suisse is seen as good news, because people infer that money printing will restart.

That is how addicted the market is to QE and why the rate rises haven't even come close to blunting the irrational exuberance of the market.
This bear trap will likely continue until Powell makes a public statement about staying the course with high interest rates and then the markets will capitulate again.

Literally insane that the market is inverse how it should be behaving
Bad news is good news and good news is bad news.

As to it being insane, and forgive me as have I almost no knowledge of how any of this works. But isn’t most of the speculation done by machine? Like really computers and algorithms and what not?

Oct 4, 2022 2:17:49 GMT All34LOL said:

Oct 3, 2022 22:52:01 GMT iNCY said:

The reason, is that the market has convinced itself that the Fed will pivot to stabilize the economy the way that has been done in the UK.
So the bad news on Credit Suisse is seen as good news, because people infer that money printing will restart.

That is how addicted the market is to QE and why the rate rises haven't even come close to blunting the irrational exuberance of the market.
This bear trap will likely continue until Powell makes a public statement about staying the course with high interest rates and then the markets will capitulate again.

Literally insane that the market is inverse how it should be behaving
Bad news is good news and good news is bad news.

As to it being insane, and forgive me as have I almost no knowledge of how any of this works. But isn’t most of the speculation done by machine? Like really computers and algorithms and what not?

Yes, a lot of the large houses are running by computers following algorithms but they are influenced by market sentiment and trends.
So if 99.9% of trades were computer based, they could be swayed by the 0.1%
At the end of the day the stock market is not about economics, it is about psychology.

Oct 3, 2022 22:52:01 GMT iNCY said:

Oct 3, 2022 14:19:23 GMT c said:

US market soaring this morning with the Dow up 2% so far. Clearly market does not believe that these banks will fail.

The reason, is that the market has convinced itself that the Fed will pivot to stabilize the economy the way that has been done in the UK.
So the bad news on Credit Suisse is seen as good news, because people infer that money printing will restart.

That is how addicted the market is to QE and why the rate rises haven't even come close to blunting the irrational exuberance of the market.
This bear trap will likely continue until Powell makes a public statement about staying the course with high interest rates and then the markets will capitulate again.

Literally insane that the market is inverse how it should be behaving
Bad news is good news and good news is bad news.

Been telling ya the market is no longer rational for years.  Seeing the results in actions.  These big finance groups know they are too big to fail and will get bailed out one way or another whether it is US just giving them money or QE or something else.  

Powell made it clear we will not stop raising rates until we see inflation drop to target levels.  UN now is screaming if the US continues to raise our interest rates away from historic lows a worldwide recession will hit. 

Still think we should have been raising it by 2% to 3% per increase not .25% to .75%  But the wealthy now need near 0 interest rates to functions since they live off debt, and they control our government since money is speech.

Oct 4, 2022 8:53:48 GMT c said:

Oct 3, 2022 22:52:01 GMT iNCY said:

The reason, is that the market has convinced itself that the Fed will pivot to stabilize the economy the way that has been done in the UK.
So the bad news on Credit Suisse is seen as good news, because people infer that money printing will restart.

That is how addicted the market is to QE and why the rate rises haven't even come close to blunting the irrational exuberance of the market.
This bear trap will likely continue until Powell makes a public statement about staying the course with high interest rates and then the markets will capitulate again.

Literally insane that the market is inverse how it should be behaving
Bad news is good news and good news is bad news.

Been telling ya the market is no longer rational for years.  Seeing the results in actions.  These big finance groups know they are too big to fail and will get bailed out one way or another whether it is US just giving them money or QE or something else.  

Powell made it clear we will not stop raising rates until we see inflation drop to target levels.  UN now is screaming if the US continues to raise our interest rates away from historic lows a worldwide recession will hit. 

Still think we should have been raising it by 2% to 3% per increase not .25% to .75%  But the wealthy now need near 0 interest rates to functions since they live off debt, and they control our government since money is speech.

Not trying to defend the fed or anyone else with this statement… there’s plenty of blame to go around. But this inflation has been largely fueled by supply and scarcity of products. So conventional wisdom is to raise interest rates to combat inflation… but this isn’t normal inflation. So isn’t raising interest rates at this point just for appearances? Cause it’s what you’re “sposed” to do? Again this stuff is out of my wheel house. I just fail to see how raising interest rates gets us out our labor and supply issues?

Cheap interest makes growth explosive, and the US grew faster than we had workers to support. This strains the workforce as there are not enough workers to fill all the jobs. When you start to strain jobs in logistics or base production you fuck the supply chain too. Laying off people during COVID just made things worse, as now they want those workers back, they are in different jobs without people to replace them.

You increase interest rates to slow corporate growth by drying up their cheap loans and forcing them to invest in what they have, rather than just expand. It also makes buying back stock less attractive, and our companies are massively investing is removing stocks from the market.

Finally it eases consumer demand as cheap credit dries up.

No one knows if it will work. But many claimed the worldwide economy crashed six months back when the US entered a deep recession that the people who live in the US just did not notice. But we have few ways to combat inflation. It is basically increase fed rates or increases taxes on the rich. And taxing the rich is off the table, so all we have is taxing the cheap loans they live off of by rising the fed rate. 

Conservatives claim that if people will take pay cuts to drop labor costs prices will fall as well, but we never actually seen this happen as costs of labor drops due to automation.  We actually seen the reverse.  As production efficiency increases so do prices.

Oct 4, 2022 17:41:15 GMT All34LOL said:

Oct 4, 2022 8:53:48 GMT c said:

Been telling ya the market is no longer rational for years.  Seeing the results in actions.  These big finance groups know they are too big to fail and will get bailed out one way or another whether it is US just giving them money or QE or something else.  

Powell made it clear we will not stop raising rates until we see inflation drop to target levels.  UN now is screaming if the US continues to raise our interest rates away from historic lows a worldwide recession will hit. 

Still think we should have been raising it by 2% to 3% per increase not .25% to .75%  But the wealthy now need near 0 interest rates to functions since they live off debt, and they control our government since money is speech.

Not trying to defend the fed or anyone else with this statement… there’s plenty of blame to go around. But this inflation has been largely fueled by supply and scarcity of products. So conventional wisdom is to raise interest rates to combat inflation… but this isn’t normal inflation. So isn’t raising interest rates at this point just for appearances? Cause it’s what you’re “sposed” to do? Again this stuff is out of my wheel house. I just fail to see how raising interest rates gets us out our labor and supply issues?

Imagine you have to drive a car down a steep hill, the road has twists and bends but you have no steering wheel or brakes.
All you have is an accelerator that is either full on or off, and a hand brake.

That is pretty much all the Fed has in its arsenal to control the market.
It's crude and it is ugly, a bit like the way chemotherapy kills all cells good and bad, the interest rate rises work the same way.
During the pandemic the government created trillions of dollars,  this started the price rising before the labor and material shortages hit.
This would be my analogy:




We are in the stupid position that the government has spent a decade squirting lighter fluid into the BBQ.
Finally, the economy sparked and we have a forest fire.

The main issue is we can't put the lighter fuel back in the bottle.
The people hurt by raising rates aren't the ones that profited from the money printing (Not directly anyway)
But there is no other way to reign in spending.

Not to mention this is all a nonlinear system we are treating as a linear one. It is believed that you can reduce inflation down to the inverse of interest rates, but that oversimplifies everything to an idiotic degree.

And Incy, you will finally get your collapse moment in six months. This summer with the OPEC oil cut should see oil at 125 to 150. America will hit a real recession when people have to pay $5 a galleon for gas and shipping prices skyrocket. And since our economy is a house of cards right now, it should hit quick and hard.  Then the GOP will block any serious attempt to recover the economy as a bad economy will get Biden out and Trump back in.  One year of a shit economy is well worth it to them to easily remove Biden.  I assume they will be smart enough to force Trump to take DeSantis as VP so they can set up a pres to VP transfer when Trump dies.  

Powell: I'm going to raise rates until inflation is 2%
The market: LOL he probably doesn't mean it, he will pivot


Today unemployment actually dropped with 100k more jobs created than forecast...
Market realises this inflation business has a long tail.
Watch the markets wake up today...

The Fed is going to keep raising until this irrational optimism in the market is not only dead, but decomposing.

Markets are totally irrational now. And super volatile. The crash will be glorious since there is so much risk now piling up and investors seem not to care.

Oct 7, 2022 13:04:43 GMT c said:

Markets are totally irrational now. And super volatile. The crash will be glorious since there is so much risk now piling up and investors seem not to care.

It's not as much irrational as ill founded.

The market is addicted to the money printer and it responds to any sound like a dog when they here food hitting their bowl

asiatimes.com/2022/10/global-margin-call-hits-european-debt-markets/

The Fed has snookered themselves.
Its either stay the course and have a deep ugly recession or pivot and have the economy melt up into hyperinflation.

I expected this would happen, but I'm really shocked how quickly it's happening.
It's still not making the non financial news... And it should be.

Oct 9, 2022 12:17:57 GMT iNCY said:

asiatimes.com/2022/10/global-margin-call-hits-european-debt-markets/

The Fed has snookered themselves.
Its either stay the course and have a deep ugly recession or pivot and have the economy melt up into hyperinflation.

I expected this would happen, but I'm really shocked how quickly it's happening.
It's still not making the non financial news... And it should be.

Considering your foresight and forecasting, are you doing anything to help steel your personal or business finances against the coming reality check? Be curious to know, as I'd generally consider it pretty prudent advice for others to follow.

Oct 9, 2022 13:10:49 GMT 🤯 said:

Oct 9, 2022 12:17:57 GMT iNCY said:

asiatimes.com/2022/10/global-margin-call-hits-european-debt-markets/

The Fed has snookered themselves.
Its either stay the course and have a deep ugly recession or pivot and have the economy melt up into hyperinflation.

I expected this would happen, but I'm really shocked how quickly it's happening.
It's still not making the non financial news... And it should be.

Considering your foresight and forecasting, are you doing anything to help steel your personal or business finances against the coming reality check? Be curious to know, as I'd generally consider it pretty prudent advice for others to follow.

I don't give out Financial advice because I am just an ignorant bum without a college education at the end of the day.
If people are already in the market, getting out crystalises their losses, I have seen some forecasting SPY at 250, but it is a mystery as to what happens on the market because the Fed could restart the money printer today.
I have a not small amount of money to invest and as we stand at the moment I am using short term interest accounts, 3.8% for 12 months isn't bad.
Yes, it is behind inflation, but I can't see that there is a hedge at the moment.

My most serious advice would be that I wouldn't change jobs now because of the last in first out rule.

Oct 9, 2022 22:45:53 GMT iNCY said:

Oct 9, 2022 13:10:49 GMT 🤯 said:

Considering your foresight and forecasting, are you doing anything to help steel your personal or business finances against the coming reality check? Be curious to know, as I'd generally consider it pretty prudent advice for others to follow.

I don't give out Financial advice because I am just an ignorant bum without a college education at the end of the day.
If people are already in the market, getting out crystalises their losses, I have seen some forecasting SPY at 250, but it is a mystery as to what happens on the market because the Fed could restart the money printer today.
I have a not small amount of money to invest and as we stand at the moment I am using short term interest accounts, 3.8% for 12 months isn't bad.
Yes, it is behind inflation, but I can't see that there is a hedge at the moment.

My most serious advice would be that I wouldn't change jobs now because of the last in first out rule.

I don’t always agree with you man. But I do tend to listen to your financial/work advice. Because you do seem to know what you’re talking about eduction or no. Incy got his mind on his money and his money on his mind. But yeah changing jobs is risky right now. Not sure tenure is a definitive safety rail… but it’s good advice. Cause I’ve seen last in first out in action. Companies tend to operate from the standpoint that the easiest cost to control is payroll. And your tenured help is also more likely to perform better from a get the basics done aspect… and often have more loyalty than your newer hires (if they’ve “bought in” of course)Though you do get a Touch Of lazy with tenure…

Oct 9, 2022 22:57:41 GMT All34LOL said:

Oct 9, 2022 22:45:53 GMT iNCY said:

I don't give out Financial advice because I am just an ignorant bum without a college education at the end of the day.
If people are already in the market, getting out crystalises their losses, I have seen some forecasting SPY at 250, but it is a mystery as to what happens on the market because the Fed could restart the money printer today.
I have a not small amount of money to invest and as we stand at the moment I am using short term interest accounts, 3.8% for 12 months isn't bad.
Yes, it is behind inflation, but I can't see that there is a hedge at the moment.

My most serious advice would be that I wouldn't change jobs now because of the last in first out rule.

I don’t always agree with you man. But I do tend to listen to your financial/work advice. Because you do seem to know what you’re talking about eduction or no. Incy got his mind on his money and his money on his mind. But yeah changing jobs is risky right now. Not sure tenure is a definitive safety rail… but it’s good advice. Cause I’ve seen last in first out in action. Companies tend to operate from the standpoint that the easiest cost to control is payroll. And your tenured help is also more likely to perform better from a get the basics done aspect… and often have more loyalty than your newer hires (if they’ve “bought in” of course)Though you do get a Touch Of lazy with tenure…

I agree with you completely, Tenure is not the best way to determine who is your best staff.
When times get tough though and the accountant has the red pen, the simplest way to cut heads is to pick a recent date and let all the workers hired after that date go.
It gives you something that while not necessarily "fair" is something the existing staff will stomach.

That article has a lot of speculation but not a whole lot of information about right now in it. Seems all this could happen because this happened prior. Which is why no one else is covering this right now.

Man problem with companies now is they are working with no cash on hand. Banks are investing to insane risk limits and corporations are buying back stock at record rates. Everyone assumes they are too big to fail, and if shit hits the fans, the people will buy their losses to prevent economic disruption.

I do find it really weird that there is an assumption that the US controls all the US currency policy is the world and our fed rates and currency printing policies control what happens in other countries that do not even use the dollar.

Here's another one for you then c , with rates rising as they are.
The US Bond rate is pushing higher all the time.
If we aren't able to bring rates down, by 2032 the interest payments the Federal government is making... Interest mind you, not bringing down the debt at all is $1.2 Trillion



www.pgpf.org/analysis/2022/09/higher-interest-rates-will-raise-interest-costs-on-the-national-debt


That's 20% of the federal budget going to just interest payments.
Deficits and QE don't impact the bottom line with low interest rates, once they start increasing it gets very expensive very fast.

In the past 40 years the only two presidents who did anything to reduce the national debt were Clinton and Biden. The people who you claim are the ones who know the best fiscal policy for America, cut taxes and increase spending with no concern for the national debt. Republicans claim they care about debt when not in charge, but then cut taxes and spend like drunken sailors. Then they oppose bills that make repayments on the debt, while not making any payments themselves.

So fuck them. As the amount of poor people in the US rises, the rich only have themselves to hurt from these policies. It is not the poor getting cars stolen or mugged because they do not have anything take. Can't get blood from a stone. But you can get money from people who will be trillionaires when this all goes down.

Oct 9, 2022 23:38:48 GMT c said:

In the past 40 years the only two presidents who did anything to reduce the national debt were Clinton and Biden. The people who you claim are the ones who know the best fiscal policy for America, cut taxes and increase spending with no concern for the national debt. Republicans claim they care about debt when not in charge, but then cut taxes and spend like drunken sailors. Then they oppose bills that make repayments on the debt, while not making any payments themselves.

So fuck them. As the amount of poor people in the US rises, the rich only have themselves to hurt from these policies. It is not the poor getting cars stolen or mugged because they do not have anything take. Can't get blood from a stone. But you can get money from people who will be trillionaires when this all goes down.

You don't have to scratch very deep to see the hate spill out of you do we?
If you note I am as critical of Republican presidents fiscal management as I am of the Democrats one.
The only reason I am harder on Democrats is because socialist policies damage an economy, even there I am for a living wage and single payer government health care.

It wasn't that long ago that AOC and her merry band were trumpeting the benefits of MMT.
The idea that debt and deficit don't matter is currently exploding before our eyes.
You could tax every billionaire at 80% it wouldn't fix the situation.

The system is structurally broken by an ageing workforce and a globalised economy.
These two things are what is choking the West.


And yes, I think Biden is terrible... I don't know who his advisors are but the USA is sleepwalking into an economic Armageddon. 

Most of that debt was the result of Republican policy not socialist policy. Deregulation leading to a financial crash that needed a major bailout to prevent economic collapse, the Iraq war, and Trump's bailouts were what ran up the debt. Socialist policy does not need high debt since they believe in high progressive taxes. GOP policy needs debt spending since they do not wish to tax to pay for their spending.

I do love too the notion that Biden's advisors are leading us to armageddon when many were also Trump's advisors who were said to have brought a period of great economic activity with the same policy.  They were great under Trump but once Biden took over, they were the absolute worst?  

Oct 9, 2022 23:57:43 GMT c said:

Most of that debt was the result of Republican policy not socialist policy. Deregulation leading to a financial crash that needed a major bailout to prevent economic collapse, the Iraq war, and Trump's bailouts were what ran up the debt. Socialist policy does not need high debt since they believe in high progressive taxes. GOP policy needs debt spending since they do not wish to tax to pay for their spending.

I do love too the notion that Biden's advisors are leading us to armageddon when many were also Trump's advisors who were said to have brought a period of great economic activity with the same policy.  They were great under Trump but once Biden took over, they were the absolute worst?  

You don't quit do you, I almost wonder if you have replaced your online persona with a bit, it is something you would do.
1. Trump screwed the economy, yes as did everyone before him.
2. It's going to blow up on Biden's watch and he's doing victory laps on job numbers that show the interest rate rises have done nothing to dampen the economy.
3. Progressive tax systems don't work, they stifle economic growth. 
4. You cannot spend what you don't have, the idea that you can have a Socialist agenda without a plan is crazy. In an era where manufacturing and financial services go to low cost countries, what is the USA going to actually do to create this Socialist agenda? What are you going to make and export? Who are the employers going to be and in what industry?
5. Globalism is a thing, you cannot set policies for your own nation ignorant of what is happening in the rest of the world.
6. Whether or not someone gets in front of the economy and charts a plan to bring down inflation without the use of interest rates, it is going to get ugly.
7. Biden talking up the economy while Powell is raising interest rates to cool the economy is counter productive, it is like putting your foot to the floor on the accelerator and brake at the same time.

I hear this every time a democrat is in office and the economic collapse that ends the world as we know it never happens. And I called this two years ago. The second anything happened to move the interest rates over 0 would be met with calls that world economy's was at stake.

If the capitalism state fails then we will talk, but until then, this is all chicken little to me.