As I hurdle towards my 40s, my mind is drifting more and more towards retirement.

As part of that, I’m starting to more closely monitor my net worth. It’s not bad, but no where I’d like to see it. Some bad choices in my early 30s hurt me.

Knowing this entire board is getting older too … are y’all starting to do the same? How do you feel you’re setup for retirement age?

This is a tough one, I find that it's human nature for your goals and your aspirations to drift higher as you achieve them.

I tend to have several goals:
1. Safe Goal
2. Aspirational Goal
3. FIRE Goal - (Financially Independent Retire Early).

At the moment I am probably in my above scoring somewhere around 1.10 out of 3

I’d agree with that, Incy.

I don’t foresee FIRE in my future, but maybe that’ll change.

My challenge now is I have a statistically high income, but I live in one of the highest priced cities in the country.

Will say this for FIRE models, when calculating inflation, if you calculate it being linear you will find yourself rapidly running out of cash. Inflation is curve-linear as each creates a new line, the next increase starts from.

Seen a lot of people's estimates of what they need to retire early, and they are grossly underestimate costs, sometimes by magnitudes. Also base costs expand as you get older due to healthcare if not in a socialized country, and a lot of people are not accounting for that. Even with insurance, costs will increase due to things that are not covered.

Some of those FIRE kids on reddit gonna end up in a third world country, broke really fast as costs rise due to the influx of people looking for a cheap place to retire. Vietnam is seeing cost of living rapidly spike as people jack up rates for white people in the cities as they are now flushed with foreign cash. Also people are not familiar with duel fees. They think the costs for Vietnamese people will apply to them because they live in countries that do not allow racial discrimination. This is not the case at all there though and they are absolutely milking the retirees for all they are worth.

Dec 16, 2023 3:28:39 GMT KJ said:

I’d agree with that, Incy.

I don’t foresee FIRE in my future, but maybe that’ll change.

My challenge now is I have a statistically high income, but I live in one of the highest priced cities in the country.

Yes, it'd tough to strike a balance.
Never understood the lean fire model where people live off rice and beans so they can retire at 50... and live on rice and beans.

Dec 16, 2023 7:27:49 GMT c said:

Will say this for FIRE models, when calculating inflation, if you calculate it being linear you will find yourself rapidly running out of cash. Inflation is curve-linear as each creates a new line, the next increase starts from.

Seen a lot of people's estimates of what they need to retire early, and they are grossly underestimate costs, sometimes by magnitudes. Also base costs expand as you get older due to healthcare if not in a socialized country, and a lot of people are not accounting for that. Even with insurance, costs will increase due to things that are not covered.

Some of those FIRE kids on reddit gonna end up in a third world country, broke really fast as costs rise due to the influx of people looking for a cheap place to retire. Vietnam is seeing cost of living rapidly spike as people jack up rates for white people in the cities as they are now flushed with foreign cash. Also people are not familiar with duel fees. They think the costs for Vietnamese people will apply to them because they live in countries that do not allow racial discrimination. This is not the case at all there though and they are absolutely milking the retirees for all they are worth.

Experts agree a 5% draw down rate is safe without diminishing the principal over market dips. That's where I'm not sure if I could ever fire, because that would mean something in the vicinity of 4-5m invested.

That is the problem though, 5% draw down assumes no inflation. And some people already found out hard as the pandemic and post pandemic inflation already sent them back to work. Sure there are ways to make this all work, but got to be a lot smarter than just picking a number and hoping for the best. 250k today is not what 250k will be 20 years from now, but this 5% drawdown does not take that into account. Also this is why people say these are fragile models. Deep shocks to the market, which are not uncommon, can really mess with your figures.

FIRE overall sees like a dream that many are now realizing for the common person, is just that. The numbers to pull it off are far higher than people are estimating, which is why so many regret stories are popping up. Also many are realizing they do not want to be home all day while they also have to aggressively budget spending. They thought they wanted early retirement, but they really did not at all. Seeing some transitioned to doing light work from home stuff and were happy with that, others just part time work doing stuff they love.

Think that second part is def something to account for when thinking retirement. When you retire what do you plan to do with your time. Boredom gets costly and hobbies are subject to inflation. Seems silly to think about but living on a fixed income you really do not want to be spending cash simply because you are bored and I know when people become disabled they struggle hard with this. Few seem to account any cash towards hobbies in their planning, which seems like a recipe for disaster or misery depending on whether you spend or not.

Dec 16, 2023 15:56:24 GMT c said:

That is the problem though, 5% draw down assumes no inflation. And some people already found out hard as the pandemic and post pandemic inflation already sent them back to work. Sure there are ways to make this all work, but got to be a lot smarter than just picking a number and hoping for the best. 250k today is not what 250k will be 20 years from now, but this 5% drawdown does not take that into account. Also this is why people say these are fragile models. Deep shocks to the market, which are not uncommon, can really mess with your figures.

FIRE overall sees like a dream that many are now realizing for the common person, is just that. The numbers to pull it off are far higher than people are estimating, which is why so many regret stories are popping up. Also many are realizing they do not want to be home all day while they also have to aggressively budget spending. They thought they wanted early retirement, but they really did not at all. Seeing some transitioned to doing light work from home stuff and were happy with that, others just part time work doing stuff they love.

Think that second part is def something to account for when thinking retirement. When you retire what do you plan to do with your time. Boredom gets costly and hobbies are subject to inflation. Seems silly to think about but living on a fixed income you really do not want to be spending cash simply because you are bored and I know when people become disabled they struggle hard with this. Few seem to account any cash towards hobbies in their planning, which seems like a recipe for disaster or misery depending on whether you spend or not.

It's not that 5% is necessarily wrong ... it's that people vastly underestimate the total sum they need to draw that 5% from.

Lean fire makes sense if you absolutely hate your job or working in general and are content with a minimal lifestyle.

The key to retirement, and especially fire, is to have your home paid off since that is most people’s biggest expense. I don’t know how anyone could retire while renting.

I used to read MMM a lot years ago and that made an impression. Own your house, no debt, don’t buy dumb shit, invest constantly, learn to DIY.

I’m probably a 0.6 but it’s going to snowball the next 10 years.

Dec 16, 2023 18:03:56 GMT KJ said:

Dec 16, 2023 15:56:24 GMT c said:

That is the problem though, 5% draw down assumes no inflation. And some people already found out hard as the pandemic and post pandemic inflation already sent them back to work. Sure there are ways to make this all work, but got to be a lot smarter than just picking a number and hoping for the best. 250k today is not what 250k will be 20 years from now, but this 5% drawdown does not take that into account. Also this is why people say these are fragile models. Deep shocks to the market, which are not uncommon, can really mess with your figures.

FIRE overall sees like a dream that many are now realizing for the common person, is just that. The numbers to pull it off are far higher than people are estimating, which is why so many regret stories are popping up. Also many are realizing they do not want to be home all day while they also have to aggressively budget spending. They thought they wanted early retirement, but they really did not at all. Seeing some transitioned to doing light work from home stuff and were happy with that, others just part time work doing stuff they love.

Think that second part is def something to account for when thinking retirement. When you retire what do you plan to do with your time. Boredom gets costly and hobbies are subject to inflation. Seems silly to think about but living on a fixed income you really do not want to be spending cash simply because you are bored and I know when people become disabled they struggle hard with this. Few seem to account any cash towards hobbies in their planning, which seems like a recipe for disaster or misery depending on whether you spend or not.

It's not that 5% is necessarily wrong ... it's that people vastly underestimate the total sum they need to draw that 5% from.

Good point.  With enough cash to start 5% will remain strong enough.  But people looking at like 2 mil to retire at 30 gonna be in serious trouble.  

I follow a Mens Financial Advice page on Facebook and was astonished how little many people have in both savings and retirement.

The majority of men on this page who were being honest were in their late 30s and 40s had less than $50k in superannuation and much less in savings.

Realistically speaking, I know people well into their 50s living pay cheque to pay cheque and the general consensus for a lot of people since 2021 is they're banking on their property continuing to rise in value at the extraordinary rate it has since the pandemic and this will be the magic bullet.

Speaking openly and honestly, I have a few hundred thousand in both savings and superannuation respectively, a handful of shares. Mortgage naturally.. and having previously owned and sold and benefited from an investment property a few years ago now. We own all three cars with one appreciating in value due to rarity and condition.

I know guys who put every cent into super and live on sausages and mash potatoes, others who put every cent into their home, others who accumulate assets.. cars, toys, and others who live well below their means. And all of these guys will dish out financial advice like they're reading from the bible, yet I haven't seen one retire early yet.

The lesson here, perhaps naively.. do whatever works for you.

Dec 16, 2023 20:24:41 GMT NATH45 said:

I follow a Mens Financial Advice page on Facebook and was astonished how little many people have in both savings and retirement.

The majority of men on this page who were being honest were in their late 30s and 40s had less than $50k in superannuation and much less in savings.

Realistically speaking, I know people well into their 50s living pay cheque to pay cheque and the general consensus for a lot of people since 2021 is they're banking on their property continuing to rise in value at the extraordinary rate it has since the pandemic and this will be the magic bullet.

Speaking openly and honestly, I have a few hundred thousand in both savings and superannuation respectively, a handful of shares. Mortgage naturally.. and having previously owned and sold and benefited from an investment property a few years ago now. We own all three cars with one appreciating in value due to rarity and condition.

I know guys who put every cent into super and live on sausages and mash potatoes, others who put every cent into their home, others who accumulate assets.. cars, toys, and others who live well below their means. And all of these guys will dish out financial advice like they're reading from the bible, yet I haven't seen one retire early yet.

The lesson here, perhaps naively.. do whatever works for you.

I think you're doing nicely.
With Cs comment about draw down, if you're taking 5% that total number will increase with inflation.

For the non Australians when we talk about Superannuation it's what you would call a 401k except that here you are forced by law to pay a percentage of your pay.

About a decade ago I set up a self administered superannuation fund which means I can control it, we bought the warehouse that my business now operates out of, so we rent it to my company. The return rate isn't as high as the stock market, but I like the security of it.

I don't salary sacrifice much into super because I'm uncomfortable with the fact the government can change the rules at any time.

Stock market set for a deep crash. Market is operating around infinite growth being something that can be maintained forever. It is utterly irrational and when people realize it, gonna be a nasty correction. Manipulating earning reports with strategic layoffs that are then immediately rehired is showing that there is a lot of deception in valuation of companies as well.

Things are looking pretty good for me. I live in one of the lowest cost of living cities in Canada, combined with living well below my means, makes it easy to invest. My pension through work has always been great, and currently on year 17 of the same job means there's a nice chunk of change in there. 5.5% of every pay, matched by employer. My wife also came to the relationship with about 400K invested (only child, mom died when she was 18, had life insurance) so that gave us a big leg up to add to my pension and investments. Like others, property is a biggie. Bought our house just over 7 years ago for $480k, best guess on valuation based on houses in my area...probably 630K.

My mortgage will be done shortly before I turn 60. So hoping things chug along in the next 18 years, make that final mortgage payment, toss in my retirement papers. Wouldn't that be nice? I don't think I'll have expensive hobbies...reading, cooking, maybe tennis if my body can handle it.

As of about a month ago, Mrs. Foos finally makes more money than me. She was offered a new job with a substantial pay increase. She brought that to the attention of her Executive Director, who decided to match the offer. My wife was/is very happy in her current job, so that worked out wonderfully. Now we have even more to invest/add value to our home and lives.

I'm 49 and I have come to the conclusion that I will not be able to retire. I have a small retirement plan that I got started in my late teens early twenty that I basically contributed the minimum for several years. Then something happened and they stopped taking draws from my checking account. Which I was ok with at the time because I had debt that I was trying to payoff. I have a plan started by my old boss which I did not contribute as much as I wish I would have. I have a new plan with the new boss which is nice but I feel like I got too late of start to make a real difference at my current age.

30 years ago it was if you can put $200 a month in to a retirement plan you would be set up for retirement. The problem was in 1995 when your 20 years old and making $7 a hour you did not have extra $200 a month to put in to a retirement plan.

Since becoming debt free I've bumped up what I contribute but I still feel like its too late. Especially with the inflation of the past few years.

After reading this back to myself it may sound like thing are worse that they really are, but after talking to friends and family members that are in the same age range as I am and we've all seem to have come to the same conclusion. Its going to be hard to 100% retire and maintain our current life styles.

Dec 17, 2023 1:27:35 GMT c said:

Stock market set for a deep crash. Market is operating around infinite growth being something that can be maintained forever. It is utterly irrational and when people realize it, gonna be a nasty correction. Manipulating earning reports with strategic layoffs that are then immediately rehired is showing that there is a lot of deception in valuation of companies as well.

I keep thinking that, but I and many others who feel the same way have missed out on some healthy gains.
This is the argument for dollar cost averaging.

It is why I bought the warehouse and insure it.
May not be pretty or return at market levels....

I bought it for 410k
Returns 25k per year in rent
So a basic 6% return, but the property across from us which is a bit smaller sold for 648k
I didn't really get it at the time, because on a similar rent it is only a 4% return, but I guess interest rates were almost zero at the time.
I think if that same property sold today, maybe 590k.

The problem with the stock market is everyone can jack risk to the max now as the US showed it will bail out the top investors time and time again if the market crashes.

The common person however is fucked when it crashes. We seen this repeatedly too when it comes to the market crashes in the past, and how consumer investors are always getting screwed over. I would do exactly what you did and go into property. Safer investment and where investment managers normally put their earnings, rather than back into the market, which should be telling.

Moody's was one of the groups who warned about the market being overleveraged. Basically is a ticking time bomb right now. We are sitting at record highs, and many are saying the everything bubble still applies to the market and it is universally overvalued. Should see stories on it in most business sections on news sites. All it takes is one place to drop, then the dominos will fall. I would not want to have cash in this system right now. I would absolutely however buy in post fall.

Dec 17, 2023 23:35:41 GMT c said:

The problem with the stock market is everyone can jack risk to the max now as the US showed it will bail out the top investors time and time again if the market crashes.

The common person however is fucked when it crashes. We seen this repeatedly too when it comes to the market crashes in the past, and how consumer investors are always getting screwed over. I would do exactly what you did and go into property. Safer investment and where investment managers normally put their earnings, rather than back into the market, which should be telling.

Moody's was one of the groups who warned about the market being overleveraged. Basically is a ticking time bomb right now. We are sitting at record highs, and many are saying the everything bubble still applies to the market and it is universally overvalued. Should see stories on it in most business sections on news sites. All it takes is one place to drop, then the dominos will fall. I would not want to have cash in this system right now. I would absolutely however buy in post fall.

I agree, especially when you can get 5% risk free with the bank at the moment.
This is the strange thing about market psychology, when the market hits all time high, people start piling in when statistically it is the worst time to do so.

The market is not rational. Why people buy stocks at record levels, and hold them as they lose value waiting for them to regain it. Gamestop really showcased this as retail investors simply do not have the wealth to move that stock the way it did. For it to move the way it did, Wall Street and large investors had to be involved. Tesla is another one that could not move the way it did and does still without heavy Wall Street and legacy investors. To this day it is four times larger than the next competitor Toyota in terms if market capitalization, and worth more than the US auto market combined, while being 2% of the market.

Dec 16, 2023 3:28:39 GMT KJ said:

I’d agree with that, Incy.

I don’t foresee FIRE in my future, but maybe that’ll change.

My challenge now is I have a statistically high income, but I live in one of the highest priced cities in the country.

So mate,

What would be your target number for retirement and what number would you FIRE at?

Dec 18, 2023 12:13:11 GMT iNCY said:

Dec 16, 2023 3:28:39 GMT KJ said:

I’d agree with that, Incy.

I don’t foresee FIRE in my future, but maybe that’ll change.

My challenge now is I have a statistically high income, but I live in one of the highest priced cities in the country.

So mate,

What would be your target number for retirement and what number would you FIRE at?

My current track puts me at around $6MM for retirement at age 65. That’s for both me and my wife, who is two years younger, but is not employed (stay at home wife/mom). It’s a good chunk of cash.

I honestly don’t know what my FIRE number is. If we stripped way down, we could do maybe half that by 50?

I just turned 47. I'm terrible with money and have made terrible money decisions in the past and even recently.

I'm probably worse off than a lot of people my age and younger, but also better off than some as well. I only have about 40K in my pension plan and about 7K in a TFSA. Which sounds okay, but considering I'm 47 is not great. Since mom and I just bought our home a 3.5 years ago I have another 16.5 years until it is paid off which puts me at age 63. We are paying our mortgage bi weekly and took a 20 year mortgage instead of 25. Depending on what the interest rate is when we re-mortgage in 1.5 years, we may bump that timeline up but we are hoping not to have to as mom will then be 86 and we'd like to pay it off sooner than later. I should mention my mom is 70 and still working full time. 

Basically like so many others. I'm hoping for a lottery win.

Dec 18, 2023 20:10:56 GMT KJ said:

Dec 18, 2023 12:13:11 GMT iNCY said:

So mate,

What would be your target number for retirement and what number would you FIRE at?

My current track puts me at around $6MM for retirement at age 65. That’s for both me and my wife, who is two years younger, but is not employed (stay at home wife/mom). It’s a good chunk of cash.

I honestly don’t know what my FIRE number is. If we stripped way down, we could do maybe half that by 50?

That's an amazing number, especially on a single salary.

Dec 18, 2023 20:45:18 GMT iron maiden said:

I just turned 47. I'm terrible with money and have made terrible money decisions in the past and even recently.

I'm probably worse off than a lot of people my age and younger, but also better off than some as well. I only have about 40K in my pension plan and about 7K in a TFSA. Which sounds okay, but considering I'm 47 is not great. Since mom and I just bought our home a 3.5 years ago I have another 16.5 years until it is paid off which puts me at age 63. We are paying our mortgage bi weekly and took a 20 year mortgage instead of 25. Depending on what the interest rate is when we re-mortgage in 1.5 years, we may bump that timeline up but we are hoping not to have to as mom will then be 86 and we'd like to pay it off sooner than later. I should mention my mom is 70 and still working full time. 

Basically like so many others. I'm hoping for a lottery win.

Owning your house is huge though, especially when it comes to retirement.
It's crazy hard to get ahead when you are divorced, I joined a CEO group and one of the guys is two days younger than me and just finalised his divorce... he has to pay her 4.5m. I'm not saying anything about whether that's right or wrong... but imagine writing that cheque then having to get up and go to work.

I think being single moms hurt both my mom and I. More my mom as my ex did pay $500 a month, but honestly that's not a lot to raise a child on monthly when I was making 1/3 of what he was so I was in the red almost every month for years when you factored in all the extra costs that he was supposed to help with and didn't. But I won't complain too much because he did pay monthly and because we owned a home together I was able to get 35K from our equity when we divorced - course I screwed that up when I hit the financial wall but that's story for a different day. My mom on the other hand started with nothing and he contributed nothing. She probably has about 100K in investments, but again that's not that much to live on when you take into consideration that our monthly joint bills (mortgage, groceries, utilities, debt repayment, car & home insurance) run about 4K. I am currently paying 2/3 but she has other bills on top of that.

She works with low income seniors and sees the challenges they face daily so it can really weigh on her.

Dec 18, 2023 20:58:02 GMT iNCY said:

Dec 18, 2023 20:10:56 GMT KJ said:

My current track puts me at around $6MM for retirement at age 65. That’s for both me and my wife, who is two years younger, but is not employed (stay at home wife/mom). It’s a good chunk of cash.

I honestly don’t know what my FIRE number is. If we stripped way down, we could do maybe half that by 50?

That's an amazing number, especially on a single salary.

Dec 18, 2023 20:45:18 GMT iron maiden said:

I just turned 47. I'm terrible with money and have made terrible money decisions in the past and even recently.

I'm probably worse off than a lot of people my age and younger, but also better off than some as well. I only have about 40K in my pension plan and about 7K in a TFSA. Which sounds okay, but considering I'm 47 is not great. Since mom and I just bought our home a 3.5 years ago I have another 16.5 years until it is paid off which puts me at age 63. We are paying our mortgage bi weekly and took a 20 year mortgage instead of 25. Depending on what the interest rate is when we re-mortgage in 1.5 years, we may bump that timeline up but we are hoping not to have to as mom will then be 86 and we'd like to pay it off sooner than later. I should mention my mom is 70 and still working full time. 

Basically like so many others. I'm hoping for a lottery win.

Owning your house is huge though, especially when it comes to retirement.
It's crazy hard to get ahead when you are divorced, I joined a CEO group and one of the guys is two days younger than me and just finalised his divorce... he has to pay her 4.5m. I'm not saying anything about whether that's right or wrong... but imagine writing that cheque then having to get up and go to work.

I told a lie. It’s about $4MM. I calculated using a forecast tool and double-counted some inputs for my “starting” balance. My bad.

Dec 18, 2023 21:53:59 GMT KJ said:

I told a lie. It’s about $4MM. I calculated using a forecast tool and double-counted some inputs for my “starting” balance. My bad.

Which tool did you use?

Dec 18, 2023 21:57:38 GMT Gyro LC said:

Dec 18, 2023 21:53:59 GMT KJ said:

I told a lie. It’s about $4MM. I calculated using a forecast tool and double-counted some inputs for my “starting” balance. My bad.

Which tool did you use?

Bankrate calculator.

Dec 18, 2023 21:53:59 GMT KJ said:

Dec 18, 2023 20:58:02 GMT iNCY said:

That's an amazing number, especially on a single salary.




Owning your house is huge though, especially when it comes to retirement.
It's crazy hard to get ahead when you are divorced, I joined a CEO group and one of the guys is two days younger than me and just finalised his divorce... he has to pay her 4.5m. I'm not saying anything about whether that's right or wrong... but imagine writing that cheque then having to get up and go to work.

I told a lie. It’s about $4MM. I calculated using a forecast tool and double-counted some inputs for my “starting” balance. My bad.

I am pretty jealous of the US approach to Capital gains tax.
Here in Australia this is our income tax:




Plus we have a 10% sales tax on everything we buy.
The really shitty thing is for us Capital Gains are taxed like salary, so at your top rate of income tax level.
If you hold the asset for more than 12 months that tax gets discounted by 50% but it is still a lot of tax... On what you have already paid income tax on.


Our tax laws are the reason I don't take any more from the business than I do.
Next year we are apparently getting some tax cuts if the government doesn't lose its balls:



That would be life changing for me.

And people here bitch we pay high taxes. Sheesh.

This is a bit of an interesting one, but I have been reading more about this lately.
I have decided I don't want to ever retire.

My goal now is to every year decide what I want to do more of and what I want to do less of and move towards that end.
The idea of having no reason to get up in the morning bothers me a lot, I think I would end up depressed.

A person spoke to the CEO Group I am a member of and said most people who sell their businesses regret it within 3 years.
People need purpose, whatever that is for each person...
It was a gimmick but he said people need to "refire" not "rehire"

My goals isn't to make enough money that I can stop work, but to make enough money that I can choose what I do for work.
More and more people are saying that the safe withdrawl rate on investments is 4%, meaning you can take 4% per year and not affect the principal...

KJ,iNCY,c,Gyro LC,NATH45,Foos,bodyslam,iron maiden,


Any thoughts?
Is it retirement or "refirement" for you?

I'm long way off retirement, but I've often thought about what I'd do if I won the lottery and I suddenly didn't need to work - and every " dream " sees me opening some sort of business.

It's varied from restoring ( and buying/selling ) unique or special modern classic cars, to buying every piece of vinyl in the area and opening a record store specialising in 90s to now punk & alternative, so I can sit around all day listening to grunge and screamo and call it a job.

But you're right, I'd have to keep busy. My father unofficial retired a few years ago, yet seems to be sitting on the board of 13 different committees and organisations, because he just can't sit still yet.