Detroit's ceiling is definitely higher than the Jets. Stafford was one of the most reliable starters around (eight straight full seasons) before the injury last season, and he was playing like a legitimate top-10 QB before that. I would take basically all of their offensive starters over their equivalent on the Jets - they have a legit #1 receiver (and strong second and third options), two young dynamic backs, and two upper echelon lineman.

Swift is unproven but I am high on him admittedly, I just think as bad as the Jets secondary is, unless Jeff Okudah day 1 steps in and holds the OSU CB pedigree down like Lattimore and Ward did before him, they are going to get thrown at......practically at will and with no go to pass rusher besides maybe Trey Flowers, it could get ugly. Jets maybe have the better secondary on paper, it all depends just how good Okudah is from the get go. No OTA or preseason is asking so much for him to transition speed wise to the next level, he's going to take his lumps. They had a top 3 pick for a reason and really didn't get better by that much this offseason. We shall see if Stafford stays healthy, he had the issues long ago and he's older now. Their backup situation isn't good at all.

Sorry Blindy, but I'm with @admin on this one.

Detroit has a way higher ceiling. The Jets have an easier division this season, weirdly enough.

Swift and Kerryon will both be used. I don't see either one of them dominating the backfield too much. Golloday is better then any WR the Jets have and quite frankly, so is Marvin Jones. The Lions D is also better then the Jets D. The Jets have Bell, but even they can't use him correctly.

Lions > Jets man.

25. Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers have position groups that would be the envy of a lot of teams in the league, but their messy quarterback situation limits any realistic expectation for this team. I expect Tyrod Taylor to get slightly more starts here than he did with the Browns, but it will just be treading water, and Justin Herbert will be playing by Thanksgiving. Herbert has a big arm but he'll need to develop his accuracy to be a success in the NFL. The good news is that he has a strong array of weapons to excel with. Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson will have to prove they can handle a bigger workload with Melvin Gordon gone, but Ekeler is a superbly underrated player - the best receiving back in the league. The wide out duo of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams is top notch, and durability is the only thing holding Hunter Henry back from being an elite tight end. The weak offensive line is a major reason I don't see Tyrod being particularly successful as he tends to hold the ball too long and take too many sacks. The problem is particularly on the left side (trivia: can you name the left tackle?) but the right should be better than in past seasons with new acquisitions Trai Turner and Bryan Bulaga.

There are more impressive duos on defence - not many pass rushing duos are better than Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram, and not many cornerback duos have achieved the sustained success that Chris Harris and Casey Hayward have. The secondary also boasts Desmond King and Derwin James, this is a truly elite unit. James is as versatile and productive a safety as anyone this side of Jamal Adams. The one weak area on the defence are the linebackers, but if Kenneth Murray can make an instant impact as a rookie then the Chargers could very easily boast one of the best defences in the league. 

I really like Anthony Lynn - just look at the first episode of Hard Knocks to see the gravitas and leadership he carries - but he's in the unusual position of leading a team with a first round quarterback that isn't actually rebuilding. He really can't afford to miss the playoffs for the third time in four seasons, and while the extra wild card will help to that aim, I fear that despite all the top tier talent on this team, the weaknesses at two prime positions: quarterback and left tackle might be too much to overcome.

24. Detroit Lions

Along with Ryan Tannehill there isn't a more interesting quarterback going into the 2020 season than Matt Stafford, both veterans transforming into completely different players last season, and Stafford didn't even need a change of scenery to achieve it. The big question here is whether the flash of aggressiveness before his season was ending midway is sustainable and repeatable over sixteen games. He certainly has the supporting cast around him to continue being the deep passing threat, with Kenny Golladay recording the third most yards on 20+ yard passes over the pass two seasons, and Marvin Jones and Danny Amendola being productive possession and slot receivers. Detroit will be hoping that last year's first round pick TE TJ Hockenson can become more consistent in year two, and if he does they could possess one of the more complete receiving groups in the league. They've also reinforced the running game by adding D'Andre Swift to the talented but oft-injured Kerryon Johnson - and they get to run behind a good offensive line, albeit one that lost starting RG Graham Glasgow to Denver in free agency. How well rookies Logan Stenberg and and Jonah Jackson can reform the right side of the line next to elite center Frank Ragnow could be the key to unleashing what could be a really excellent offence. 

There are far more questions on defence, starting with who can support Trey Flowers rushing the passer. The Lions drafted Julian Okwara, but his older brother Romeo wasn't exactly productive in his rookie campaign. Bob Quinn and Matt Patricia continued to use their New England connections bringing over Danny Shelton and Jamie Collins - Shelton ideally providing more up front than veterans Snacks Harrison and Mike Daniels did last season, while they'll hope Collins is more motivated than when he left the Pats the first time for Cleveland, as they will be relying on him to improve a pretty dreadful linebacking corps. A third ex-Patriot in Duron Harmon at safety, but the secondary will really hinge on whether Jeff Okudah can substitute straight in for Darius Slay. The Lions play a lot of man coverage which Okudah excelled at in college, and he was universally considered about as bust proof a draft pick as it can get. Patricia needs that to work out if he is to see out the season.

The Lions were one of the biggest offseason movers, with a great draft class on paper and some questionable moves by their division rivals saw their odds to win the NFC North shorten right up. It's easy to see why with the potential that their offence could have, but the big query has to be the head coach. Is Matt Patricia actually any good? This is the season for him to prove it, by making his defence better, maximising what he has with the additions of experience and scheme friendly players. 

Good stuff @admin , fell a little behind on my reading and commenting but some tight spot on analysis. The Chargers are such an interesting team , but as always with them it depends on luck and health. If they stay healthy that defense could be Top 3 at the end of the year.

It’s going to be impossible for the Chargers to be a top 3 team on D because of their division.

The Chiefs are going to break records this season.

The Raiders are going to be much more aggressive on offense.

And I have confidence that Drew Lock is going to look like a solid starter this year with his weapons as well.

I wouldn’t touch any D this season in that division.

Loving the list so far. As a fan, I don't blame Cincy for being optimistic this season but Burrow won't change this franchise over night. It's great to move on from Andy and the old Marvin regime but Taylor still has to prove himself and there are some glaring weaknesses left on the defense and O-line. 7-9 at best, 4--12 at worst I'd say but the offense will certainly be better.

I think the Chargers will also surprise some people this season. Herbert might come in guns ablazing once LAC deems him ready and they have some weapons across the board; almost everyone's been either doubting or overlooking him.

Also, if the Lions didn't have Matt Patricia at HC and someone more capable, I'd probably project them as a wildcard team.

23. Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals are a team that are being drastically overestimated heading into the season, with a lot of people overly swayed by Kyler Murray's OROY award which was in my eyes, rather contentious. Just because comparable quarterbacks have had big success in their second campaign, doesn't mean it's definitely going to happen for them all. Murray's athleticism obviously lends itself to some big plays, both for himself and the running backs (second highest mark for yards before contact in the league) but he will need to improve on his accuracy from inside the pocket, where he ranked last in the league when not pressured. 

The addition of DeAndre Hopkins should help in that respect, he is a brilliant receiver who should continue to rank high in target share and total first downs. With Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk, the Cardinals now boast a group of most sure handed receivers in the league - all three with a drop percentage under 5% last season. There could be room for growth from Andy Isabella if he can find a way on to the field more in his second season after averaging 21ypc in limited opportunities. The ceiling of the offence rests with whether the offensive line can continue to improve as they did during the first season in Kingsbury's offence. They looked to address the weakest spot on the line, seemingly getting a great value pick with Josh Jones falling to the third round of the draft, and he will likely replace Justin Murray at right tackle.

Defensively, they have similar strengths and weaknesses to the Lions - they're looking for a second pass rusher opposite from Chandler Jones, with no obvious offseason acquisitions to fulfil the role. Their linebackers are poor, with Isaiah Simmons tasked with improving this group, albeit with his size and skill set causing some questions about exactly where he best fits in the pro game. Arizona will be desperately hoping he adapts better than fellow first round hybrid player Haason Reddick who will be on his final chance to prove he isn't another Steve Keim bust. In the secondary, things really hinge on whether Patrick Peterson can return to being a true #1 corner after a disappointing 2019. 

I've seen some predictions that have Kyler Murray passing for 4200 yards and 26 touchdowns which I would be very confident taking the under on. I just have a gut feeling that he has a Baker Mayfield-esque second season rather than Lamar Jackson - and consequently the Cardinals have to wait until 2021 to make the playoffs.

I think Arizona is going to SURPRISE a lot of teams. What makes that the most interesting division to me into this season (yes over the NFC South) is that I honestly have no clue who is going to win it.

Will the new look Rams come back to form? Russ is still in Seattle and as long as he is there, that team can be a playoff team. It’s hard to be an NFC team and lose the Super Bowl and make the playoffs the next season. The Rams couldn’t do it. And correct me if I’m wrong but I think 7-8 of the last 10 NFC teams to lose the Super Bowl failed to make the playoffs the next season. I don’t think the Niners are a playoff team this year. Which is why I am actually very excited for this Arizona Cardinals team this season.

I love the Baker/Murray comparison for @admin because he could be absolutely on point. Will Hopkins have the same let down season as OBJ this year? Something to definitely be aware of as COVID didn’t help with their chemistry. I am staying away from Hopkins in fantasy football this season but very high on Kyler Murray in the 6th round.

22. Chicago Bears

Give me Nick Foles please, I'm done with Mitch Trubisky. You don't trade for that contract just to have a quarterback competition. Foles' career has been filled with some of the highest highs and lowest lows, but I'm taking the possibility of those highs every time over a fourth season of Trubisky who is yet to show anything close to resembling being an above average starter. A player who really deserves the opportunity to catch balls from a better QB is Allen Robinson, who has established himself as a true #1 receiver despite being spending his career with Trubisky and Blake Bortles. Robinson has great hands and is excellent at contested catches, and I think would be mentioned alongside the elite WRs had he been more lucky with his landing spots. Chicago have some decent depth behind him, young players like Miller, Wims and Ridley and veteran speedster/gimmick players like Ted Ginn and Cordarrelle Patterson.

Trubisky shouldn't be the only one singled out for the offensive regression last season, his struggles were largely linked to the disappointing line play, which fell off a cliff in 2019 despite not having much change in personnel. The group basically stays together again, except for RG where Kyle Long has retired. LT Charles Leno returning to his previous level before last season's drop off is the key. The offensive line improving will also be key for the running game, which should be better considering the players available. David Montgomery is a hard runner who can break tackles, but even he could only muster 3.7ypc in his rookie season, while Tarik Cohen's production was way down, averaging a full yard less per reception than Leonard Fournette with a similar amount of catches, despite clearly being a far more dynamic player.

Even with the potential offensive improvements, it's going to be up to the defence to return to being one of the league's better units rather than just an average one if the Bears are going to succeed. That starts up front with the return of Akiem Hicks, releasing some of the attention off Khalil Mack. Mack was perfectly decent last season, tenth in the league for pressures, but I'm predicting him to bounce back to being one of the absolute premier pass rushers in 2020. Chicago also added Robert Quinn who has travelled around the NFL but has been productive basically everywhere he's played.

The second big key to the defence returning to elite status is Roquan Smith. Smith looked like he could be the next man up in the Bears' illustrious history of middle linebackers but so far he's yet to live up to his draft standing, and his stats dropped across the board during his second season. Nick Kwiatkoski has moved on to Las Vegas so there's even more pressure on Smith's shoulders in 2020. Proven starters Eddie Jackson and Kyle Fuller lead the secondary, but they've lost their star slot corner Bryce Callahan to Denver, and Artie Burns' torn ACL means that second round rookie Jaylon Johnson will be straight into the lineup as a starter. 

It's a big year for Matt Nagy who saw his stock drop drastically after winning coach of the year in his first season with the Bears. He didn't do a particularly good job calling plays last season, forcing the ball to guys like Cohen too much for little results. Can he find more success with a different quarterback? Nick Foles is hardly a reliable option but I'd be surprised if we don't see him as the starter for the majority of the season now that the franchise has started the step away from Trubisky.

21. Los Angeles Rams

I see a lot of similarities between the Rams and Bears, hence why I'm doubling them up today. Both teams saw their Super Bowl windows open and shut very quickly, with the Rams obviously getting slightly closer to winning a championship, but also now facing the fallout of going all in. Both teams have offensive "guru" head coaches, young high draft pick quarterbacks who dropped off in 2019, that drop off being directly caused by regression from their offensive lines, and reduced draft classes to reinforce the roster. With that said, I rank the Rams higher because Jared Goff provides a much higher floor at quarterback. How high his ceiling can be really depends on his o-line. Returning 2018 starters Whitworth, Havenstein and Blythe all fell off a cliff last season, while none of the younger players covered themselves in much glory. This group returning to even mediocrity, let alone the highs of two seasons ago, would be a big start for the Rams getting things back on track.

The talent at the skill positions is definitely there, Woods and Kupp are great route runners, and Van Jefferson looks like an able field stretching substitution for Brandin Cooks. Sean McVay's offence really shifted to passing to tight ends last season with Higbee and Everett combining for over 100 catches and 1100 yards. At running back, Cam Akers looks like a suitable scheme fit and with plenty of touches available now Todd Gurley has departed, I'm expecting to see more from Darrell Henderson in his second season. 

On defence the Rams obviously boast one of the NFL's absolute best players in Aaron Donald. But in what is starting to become a theme (if you're reading all of these) the Rams are looking for a second contributor up front. Dante Fowler followed Gurley to Atlanta, so there's an opportunity for someone to step up and take advantage of the double and triple-teams that Donald commands. Leonard Floyd wasn't exactly a great pass rusher during his time with the Bears, but his name value likely gives him the first shot at establishing himself as the outside linebacker. At the second level the Rams also have to contend with the loss of Cory Littleton, one of the league's best coverage linebackers, and there's not much experience left behind. In the secondary a lot rests on Jalen Ramsey performing at the elite level that he has shown he can deliver, and returned to late last season. The rest of the starters are all solid, but they have lost the experience of Eric Weddle. It will be interesting to see how the defence plays moving on from uber-experienced Wade Phillips, to first time DC Brandon Staley who comes over from Vic Fangio's staff.

The Rams feel like one of the least interesting teams to me right now. They won't bottom out because of the elite players on the roster, but there's too many holes and question marks to see them improving on last years record. It will take instant success from Akers and Jefferson, and a substantially better offensive line for them to return to being real contenders, and that just seems like too much to expect.

Yeah, I think this team's gonna be as bad as their new uniforms. Can't believe they'd do that.

It's like if all of a sudden, the Chiefs got a new stadium, and they decided new unis were in order.

Wow. Excellent thinking @admin. I never really realized how similar the Bears and the Rams are. Both are trying to build their teams through their D, but in my opinion, the tie breaker is HC.

Goff > Foles/Trubisky (which is weird since Foles won a fucking Super Bowl)
Montgomery/Cohen > The Rams RBBC.
Kupp/Woods > Robinson/Miller (until Miller decides to play to his abilities)
Higbee > Graham
Bears D = Rams D (maybe slight edge to CHI)
McVay > Nagy

Looking at their SOS this season:

The Bears are tied for 13th toughest SOS and the Rams are tied for 10th toughest SOS. Obviously, you want to look at their division since that's still too tight.

49ers > Packers (obviously from last season, but I still think SF has a hangover season)
Seahawks > Vikings
Cardinals > Lions

So the Rams are going to have a TOUGHER time winning games this season then the Bears. Realistically, both teams could finish up the season at 6-10. The only reason I still think the Rams are better is because of McVay. I would not be surprised if he tries to take the Niners game plan from last season and use his RBBC to really take the ball out of the hands of Goff as much as possible.

Love the comparison though. Really fun to dig into.

20. Las Vegas Raiders

I don't think many people expected Derek Carr to still be the starter in Jon Gruden's third season as head coach, but here we are. He seems to be the one question mark in whether the Raiders can take the step forward that the potential of the roster indicates. We've come to expect accurate yet conservative play from Carr - but surely there will be pressure on him to reduce his reluctance to take chances and throw the ball deep with the addition of Henry Ruggs to the roster. Gruden and Mayock had their choice of the highly touted receivers in the draft, and by choosing Ruggs over Lamb and teammate Jeudy, surely tipped their desire to create a more dynamic and vertical passing attack in 2020.

If Ruggs can make an instant impact, then Carr has the best group of weapons he's had in his career - Hunter Renfrow is a solid slot receiver and Darren Waller emerged as one of the better pass catching tight ends in the league, and Josh Jacobs would have won OROTY had he not missed the last few games of the season with injury. I'm predicting an even better statistical season for Jacobs this year with the likelihood that he is involved significantly more in the passing game than his 20 receptions in 2019. This group plays behind a solidly offensive line, where the controversial acquisition of Richie Incognito paid dividends with a surprisingly excellent age-36 season, alongside super reliable center Rodney Hudson, one of the most under appreciated players in the league.

Defensively there's even more reason to be optimistic with significant potential to improve. Up front that starts with Clelin Farrell, whose lack of production was compensated by the over performance of fellow rookie Maxx Crosby. If Farrell can make a second season jump then the Raiders have a good young front, also including Maurice Hurst who is a decent interior pass rusher. The area for huge improvement is the linebackers though, a position that has been a weakness for the Raiders for years now. They landed two huge free agents in Cory Littleton and Nick Kwiatkoski who look to be the perfect pair, Littleton's elite coverage and Kwiatkowski's tackling and pass rush ability. There are a couple of other interesting Mayock draft selections in the Farrell mould, considered overdrafted by analysts but high character/big game experience players - Tanner Muse was a two-time national champion with Clemson playing safety but will play linebacker in the pros, and Damon Arnette from the OSU CB production line. Arnette is added to a secondary also effectively acquiring a new starting safety pair, Damarious Randall from Cleveland, and Jonathan Abram who was ruled out of his rookie season after just one game but flashed athleticism and hitting ability.

I think the Raiders are definitely a team that can break into the playoffs this season. They've made acquisitions that look like absolute slam dunks in the two FA linebackers, and spent their bounty of high draft picks on clear areas of weakness, deep passing and corner coverage. 

Oakland have so much to answer as far as how well they travel or not, they notoriously bomb away from home and I am curious how they react to their new location and stadium. Sucks to open a new stadium with no fans, what a shit time to do it.

Derek Carr has proven time after time he is lousy outside of warm weather, he has to figure out how to play in the cold for this team to take the next step. Gruden really likes Mariota, you just know he wants him in there somehow, someway.

I would not be surprised if Marcus Marriota takes over the starting job this season. I like Derek Carr a lot. He's a great dude, but I just have this feeling that Gruden wants someone else.

Crazy to think these two dudes are teammates.

Aug 18, 2020 1:44:32 GMT KING KID said:

I love the Baker/Murray comparison for @admin because he could be absolutely on point. Will Hopkins have the same let down season as OBJ this year? Something to definitely be aware of as COVID didn’t help with their chemistry. I am staying away from Hopkins in fantasy football this season but very high on Kyler Murray in the 6th round.

I've been tweeting these out to random fans on Twitter (in the off chance someone might sign up) and everyone's been really receptive (especially Chargers fans which is ironic seeing as they probably had the most reason to complain about their ranking) except for Cards fans who have gotten real snarky that I outrageously don't think Murray is going to win MVP. :lol: 

19. Denver Broncos

The Broncos were definitely a candidate for offseason champions. The draft board fell perfectly for them and they were able to select Jerry Jeudy without having to trade up, and they also acquired an additional four proven starter level players across free agency and trade. Drew Lock now has an impressive looking supporting cast with which to establish himself, after a promising cameo at the end of his rookie season led to a 4-1 record. By adding Melvin Gordon to an already functional running back duo of Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman, the Broncos now have arguably the deepest group of RB talent in the league. Pat Shurmur would be wise to keep Lindsay as the clear #1 though, as he has clearly been the superior performer of the three over the past two seasons despite his size and being undrafted. We could soon be saying a similar thing about the Denver wide receivers being amongst the best position groups in the NFL. Courtland Sutton recorded his first of what will be many 1000 yard seasons, and his size and strength is now joined by an exceptional route runner in Jeudy, and speedy second rounder KJ Hamler, in what looks like the perfect complement of attributes. Noah Fant had ups and down in his rookie season, but if he can cut down on his drops, there is a future star at tight end. This has all the makings of an elite offence if Lock emerges as a viable starter.

The pieces are also there on defence, it's just a case of whether they can play up to their potential. Will Von Miller return to his best after a disappointing season that may have foreshadowed his peak being behind him? Can Bradley Chubb come back from injury to take some of the pressure off Miller? Can once-troubled linebacker Alexander Johnson translate his performances that blew PFF away into a full season of elite play? Can AJ Bouye regain something resembling his best cover ability after escaping Jacksonville, coming off a particularly poor season? If even half of these play out in the Broncos favour then they should get back to being the top tier defence that they had been for a number of years before 2019. Jurrell Casey is a strong addition up front between the bookends of Miller and Chubb, while Kareem Jackson, Bryce Callahan and Justin Simmons are an impressive group in the secondary.

It's been a pretty rough few years for John Elway, who whiffed majorly on Paxton Lynch, and has since cycled through veterans Case Keenum and Joe Flacco - as the Broncos have missed the playoffs four straight seasons since winning Super Bowl 50. What he has done during that time, is amass talent at basically every spot across the roster, except for quarterback. If he has got that sorted now with Drew Lock, and the slightly uninspiring old-school coaching duo of Vic Fangio and Shurmur don't hold back the dynamic potential of the young offence, then that drought may well come to an end in 2020.

Your higher on the Falcons than most wow.

Aug 21, 2020 1:12:12 GMT Blindy said:

Your higher on the Falcons than most wow.

I've been avoiding reading other rankings - what's the consensus on them? I like the overall rosters of these AFC West teams more than the Falcons but they all have big QB questions, whereas Matt Ryan is a legit top 10er.

18. Cleveland Browns

The Browns were undoubtedly the disappointment of 2019. While the off season expectations of a potential Super Bowl were overinflated by the false idea that an NFL team can build success in a way that works in the NBA, there were drastic regressions and under performances that no one saw coming. The good news for Cleveland, is that the reason for those expectations a year ago, all still exist. The offence is still brimming with skill position talent, Baker Mayfield still has the potential and attributes to be an elite quarterback, and they have one of the best young pass rushers in the league. If Kevin Stefanski can bring it together in a way that Freddie Kitchens couldn't, then those lofty predictions may have just been a year or two premature.

The key for the offence is the improvement of the offensive line. They were poor last season and had a visible effect on Mayfield's confidence as he perceived pressure even when it wasn't there, escaping clean pockets and making mistakes on the run. It obviously wasn't lost on the team as they invested heavily in Jack Conklin in free agency to play right tackle, and drafted Jedrick Wills tenth overall. Wills will start next to solid guard Joel Bitonio, but there is some concern over similarly reliable center JC Tretter who recently underwent minor knee surgery. If Wills' powerful run blocking transfers into the pros, and Tretter's knee doesn't hold him back, then there is significant potential in this group - and consequently lead to a more coherent and synced up passing attack with Mayfield, Beckham, Landry, and the acquired tight end Austin Hooper. The Browns have two excellent running backs who excel at breaking tackles and adding yards after contact in Chubb and Hunt, but while they proved last season they can succeed regardless, improved blocking should put the former right in line to win the rushing title.

There remains a few more question marks on defence, particularly on the back end. Cleveland's linebackers look like potentially one of the weakest position groups in the entire league. Joe Schobert has moved on to Jacksonville, and while Mack Wilson didn't have a great rookie season, his recent knee injury leaves BJ Goodson as the only player with any real NFL experience. Joe Woods is the new DC, his first coordinating job after a long and successful career as a DB coach, and the secondary looks like an area for potential improvement. Denzel Ward has established himself as an impressive starter, and if Greedy Williams can develop in his second year, the Browns could have a quality pair of corners. At secondary they have veteran reinforcements in Karl Joseph and Andrew Sendejo, while rookie Grant Delpit was considered by some the best safety in the draft, only held back by a concerning number of missed tackles in college.

The Browns season really relies on Baker Mayfield returning to the form that he showed in his rookie season which led to him (perhaps prematurely) being appointed as the next big star of the league. If he and Odell Beckham can iron out the kinks that they couldn't get past in 2019, the sky is still the limit for this uber talented offence. 

Whoa... Go, Browns, go!

17. Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta's offence is similar to Cleveland's in that they are relying on improved play from their offensive line in order for the bevy of skill position talent to thrive. Whereas the Browns made two major acquisitions in the offseason to turn around their fortunes, the Falcons are relying on players they previously invested highly in living up to the billing. They need last year's first rounders Chris Lindstrom and Kaleb McGary to improve in their sophomore seasons after disappointing rookie campaigns. If that can occur, then combined with reliable veterans Jake Matthews and Alex Mack, it's very easy to see Atlanta returning to contender status that they held at the beginning of the Dan Quinn era. As mentioned, they certainly have the firepower to do so. Matt Ryan is still a great quarterback, often overlooked, and in Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley he has one one of the elite 1-2 receiver punches in the league to throw to.  At running back, they have traded one back coming off a disappointing season for another, with Todd Gurley returning to Georgia while Devonta Freeman moves on. Much has been made of Gurley's health, but he has still been playing as many snaps as about any back around. His status as a difference maker on the roster is definitely linked to the performance of the offensive line.

The Falcons are yet another team who are looking for a secondary pass rusher to support their elite defensive lineman. They'll look to Dante Fowler and rookie Marlon Davidson to supplement Grady Jarrett who is coming off a career year. Quinn's defence is built around the speed and athleticism of linebacker Deion Jones, one of the very best coverage LBs around, but there isn't a lot to get excited about amongst the rest of the back seven. Keanu Neal's return should help a little bit, but the corners are a concern following Desmond Trufant's departure to Detroit. They'll be relying on AJ Terrell adjusting to the pros quickly, as well as improved performance from second year players Isaiah Oliver and Kendall Sheffield.

Matt Ryan has been a top 10 quarterback for a good seven or eight years now, but we've also seen that he needs a good situation around him to have an MVP-type season. Given the state of the Atlanta defence, it feels like he needs to deliver a 2016-esque year for Atlanta to return to the playoffs. To do so he will need better protection, particularly from McGary who lead the league in sacks allowed last season. It was a little bit of a surprise that Dan Quinn wasn't fired after back to back 7-9 returns, but they were significantly better in the second half of the season, including wins over the Saints and 49ers. They'll need to keep delivering those big wins with a tough 2020 schedule in the competitive NFC South plus the AFC West, Packers & Seahawks. 

16. New England Patriots

I think it's going to be difficult to get a read on this Patriots team for quite some time. I'm certainly not buying into the training camp reports of Jarrett Stidham looking like he's throwing the best passes amongst the quarterbacks, nor the idea that Cam Newton will be sharing playing time. I'm also not convinced that we have seen the end of the Patriots time atop the AFC East just yet. Newton obviously makes New England a far more entertaining and enjoyable team to follow. He's an enigma, on a team that downplays the importance of the individual more than any other. His skill set is also a dramatic left turn for a team that has been running Tom Brady's offence for nearly two decades. It will be fascinating to see how Josh McDaniels adjusts to Newton's abilities.

The surrounding talent around Brady was the major issue in 2019, with the legendary quarterback seemingly untrusting many of his receivers, whilst struggling to cope with pressure that the beat-up offensive line was allowing. The latter should be improved this season, with the return of center David Andrews and left tackle Isaiah Wynn, albeit losing reliable right tackle Marcus Cannon who opted-out. The receivers remain a distinct question mark, with last season's only reliable contributor Julian Edelman possibly compromised as a result of his synchronal relationship with Brady, increasing the need for Mohammed Sanu and N'Keal Harry to step up. Sanu was acquired in a fairly un-Belichickian trade midseason because they were clearly desperate for some veteran reliability, but he couldn't have been more disappointing, albeit playing through injury. I think it's fair to be optimistic about Harry's outlook as Newton had his best connection with big body receivers in Carolina. The Patriots uncharacteristically got nothing from their tight ends in 2019, and drafted a couple of interesting rookies in Devin Asiasi and Dalton Keene to improve in that department. There could be a shakeup in the running back hierachy as well, Damien Harris was supposedly going to eat in to Sony Michel's position as lead dog last season before he went down for the year, and I expect that to happen this season after Michel's poor 2019 campaign.

New England were kept in the hunt as long as they were last season by their tremendous defence, which averaged just 14 allowed points per game. The majority of the secondary from last season return, the cornerbacks Gilmore, Jackson, Jones and Jason McCourty are as impressive and deep a group as there is, while Devin McCourty will team at safety with D2 rookie Kyle Dugger and veteran Adrian Phillips after Patrick Chung opted-out. There are far more shifting parts in the front seven for Belichick to manoeuvre, where Kyle Van Noy, Danny Shelton, and Jamie Collins all moved on to new teams. Josh Uche was one of the most productive pass rushers in college football last season, but there are no obvious replacements at linebacker to cover for the loss of Collins, and especially the super reliable Dont'a Hightower who has been the lynchpin of the defence for the past seven seasons.

It's been a rollercoaster offseason in Foxboro, but you count out a Belichick team at your peril. I just have a feeling the rest of the league will look back on everyone leaving Newton out there for as long as they did as a catastrophic mistake.

Aug 24, 2020 0:58:06 GMT @admin said:

Joe Woods is the new DC, his first coordinating job after a long and successful career as a DB coach, and the secondary looks like an area for potential improvement. Denzel Ward has established himself as an impressive starter, and if Greedy Williams can develop in his second year, the Browns could have a quality pair of corners. At secondary they have veteran reinforcements in Karl Joseph and Andrew Sendejo, while rookie Grant Delpit was considered by some the best safety in the draft, only held back by a concerning number of missed tackles in college.

Delpit tore his Achilles today and is out for the season. Williams also left practice with a shoulder injury. Been a brutal camp so far for the Browns defence.

You think the lack of weapons in New England suits Cam more than Brady? He’s more used to playing with a mediocre supporting cast and having to manufacture everything.

Aug 25, 2020 18:57:45 GMT UT said:

You think the lack of weapons in New England suits Cam more than Brady? He’s more used to playing with a mediocre supporting cast and having to manufacture everything.

Yeah definitely. I think it's going to be a blast to see McDaniels dust off some of his old Tebow offence for Cam. It could be an advantage for their defence as well, getting to practice against a running quarterback, having been absolutely whooped by Baltimore last season.

15. Houston Texans

It's certainly never boring being a Houston fan. Over the past few seasons there hasn't been a team involved in more high profile deals, rolling the dice over and over to build a competitive core around Deshaun Watson. But are they really any better after all this manoeuvring and attempts to address perceived positions of weakness? Watson is clearly an excellent quarterback, I think just outside the top 3 heading into 2020. He's in an unusual situation without his perennial all-pro receiver DeAndre Hopkins, yet the receiver room remains full with Fuller, Stills and Coutee joined by team hopper Brandin Cooks. All four are speedy playmakers, while Randall Cobb had a bounce back season with Dallas and looks like a viable slot option. There aren't many teams that go five deep like that - but health is a concern with Fuller missing 14 games over the past two seasons, and Cooks' concussion history.

One of Watson's major strengths is his ability to make the big time throws, but that has come at a cost at times with his tendency to hold the ball for a long time. As a result, it's critical that the offensive line continues to improve on last seasons better than typical Texans effort, to avoid the sacks and turnovers that have caused the odd disastrous Watson game. All five starters return, led by Laremy Tunsil who if he can cut down on the penalties, should put himself in the conversation amongst the best tackles in the league. PFF's rankings interesting had the Texans as the sixth best pass blocking line, while fifth worst for run blocking. That doesn't bode especially well for new acquisition David Johnson, who unless magically revitalised by the new scenery, is seemingly unlikely to recreate his elite production of 2016. I think Houston would be well advised to give more touches to Duke Johnson who has always delivered, both on the ground and in the receiving game.

Unfortunately injury concerns also have to be a consideration when looking at the Texans defence. JJ Watt looked like he was back to his absolute best before tearing his pec midseason, and although he was able to return in time for the playoffs, his reliability has to be a question mark having been ruled out of the majority of three of the last four seasons. Alongside Watt on the defensive line, a lot of responsibility will fall on rookie Ross Blacklock who has to fill DJ Reader's big shoes providing interior pass rush and reliability against the run. Helping the Texans defence against the run are their consistent linebackers Bernardrick McKinney and Zach Cunningham. The Texans' secondary has been a problem for a while now, and despite numerous acquisitions of some highly drafted cornerbacks, nothing has really taken. Bradley Roby and Gareon Conley flash from time to time, but along with Vernon Hargreaves, none have the overall body of work in Houston to indicate they can be relied upon. Houston's own high draft pick from last season, Lonnie Johnson also had a rough time of it, allowing a fairly absurd seven touchdowns on just 52 targets!

Having a quarterback with MVP potential like Watson means you're always in the mix, but the Texans need a lot of things to fall their way. They desperately need their stars to stay healthy because they have a boom or bust type roster. They need their young o-linemen Max Scharping and Tytus Howard to improve. And they'll be hoping that new DC Anthony Weaver can find some answers to the questions of in the secondary - and improve a defence that was tied with the Bengals for the most yards allowed per play last season.

I feel like the Texans will finish above 15th in league record, they always seem to, but I can agree with the placement purely based on Superbowl aspirations. There is no scenario in my mind where I can see Bill O'Brien leading this Texans team through four play-off games successfully.

I think the Texans will be fine offensively. Tytus Howard was excellent when healthy last season and you have to believe Tunsil's snap timing will improve after he was hastily signed last season. As HR mentions, there are many worse receiver groups than this, particularly if Fuller can stay healthy. Tight-end leaves something to be desired. They have red-zone guys but no true receiving tight-end outside of Jordan Akins who has not shown a lot.

The defensive problems are obvious. Watt's health, the porous secondary, and they've lost their most consistent every-down guy in DJ Reader in the off-season. They drafted high to replace him, so let's see what happens there. Under the radar IMO is their need to find pass rush opposite Watt from someone. Mercilus looked awful last season until he made a couple of splash plays in the play-offs. Somebody needs to find something from somewhere. Mercilus, Martin, somebody. You also have to hope that a change of approach from the DC will result in at least some progression toward the mean.

In summary, 15 is low for a team with a top 5 QB and a coach with O'Brien's record, but Superbowl hopes here are low.