That is not a view almost anyone shares. Core reason for the collapse was lending to people with subprime credit, many of which they were speculatively buying with variable rate mortgages. When rates increased as grace periods ended, people missed payments, triggering default interest rates, which lead to people just giving up the houses. The houses being abandoned this way often lost value as they needed work before the banks could resell them. The synthetics were problematic, but ultimately once the mortgages started to default, it rippled through securities and derivatives.

Ultimately, the banks issued people mortgages they could not pay and did not check their credit, hence subprime mortgage crisis. And sure they lose money on the SCDOs but was mostly lost profit since they were unsecured. The loss of assets came from the double dip of housing prices dropping and needing to repair houses that were hastily abandoned to recover their losses.

Which is why people are moving away from MBS right now. Housing prices are expected to drop soon, and it is very likely the new markets that were set up by the banks will collapse in the near future. No one wants to be stuck holding the losers when shit hits the fan in case there is no bailout.

Jun 27, 2022 0:45:24 GMT c said:

That is not a view almost anyone shares. Core reason for the collapse was lending to people with subprime credit, many of which they were speculatively buying with variable rate mortgages. When rates increased as grace periods ended, people missed payments, triggering default interest rates, which lead to people just giving up the houses. The houses being abandoned this way often lost value as they needed work before the banks could resell them. The synthetics were problematic, but ultimately once the mortgages started to default, it rippled through securities and derivatives.

Ultimately, the banks issued people mortgages they could not pay and did not check their credit, hence subprime mortgage crisis. And sure they lose money on the SCDOs but was mostly lost profit since they were unsecured. The loss of assets came from the double dip of housing prices dropping and needing to repair houses that were hastily abandoned to recover their losses.

Which is why people are moving away from MBS right now. Housing prices are expected to drop soon, and it is very likely the new markets that were set up by the banks will collapse in the near future. No one wants to be stuck holding the losers when shit hits the fan in case there is no bailout.

That's the irony, thank you to QE the Fed Reserve is already holding 2 Trillion of the MBS before any bailout, all financed at the peak of the market.


I am going to move my reply to the Inflation thread

We should not be buying it now. The stuff we got in 2008 is worth a lot more now than it was, but the stuff we are buying now is at stupidly inflated prices. This is why we should not be hiring former bankers to chair the reserve though. Lord knows what ties they have.

Hey KING KID, still looking for an investment?

www.thedailycatch.org/articles/rhinebeck-horse-farm-once-owned-by-notorious-new-york-mafia-boss-hits-market-for-1-5-million/?fbclid=IwAR36P8p0iGUSohcTiYpEJB6iTnFqQMOzDwMdRO-_oIch1ndf5kwQonLxzGE&fs=e&s=cl

Here is a bit of a fixer upper, but $500 is a steal for the land alone.

www.zillow.com/homedetails/912-Pearl-St-Camden-NJ-08102/38197362_zpid

The posting description says the price is actually $1. There's probably that much loose change on the floor.

I don't think I've ever seen school ratings of 1/10 on Zillow before.

Well, it is in Camden.

Hate that realtor took away the crime stats on their listings.

Jun 28, 2022 16:34:13 GMT c said:

Here is a bit of a fixer upper, but $500 is a steal for the land alone.

www.zillow.com/homedetails/912-Pearl-St-Camden-NJ-08102/38197362_zpid

House like that would go for almost a million in Sydney

Jun 28, 2022 17:54:38 GMT @ness said:

Hate that realtor took away the crime stats on their listings.

Camdem is all you need to know.   One of the most violent cities in the US.

Jun 28, 2022 19:18:18 GMT System said:

Jun 28, 2022 16:34:13 GMT c said:

Here is a bit of a fixer upper, but $500 is a steal for the land alone.

www.zillow.com/homedetails/912-Pearl-St-Camden-NJ-08102/38197362_zpid

House like that would go for almost a million in Sydney

Likely will still go high here.  They will bulldoze the house and build a new house on the lot.  

Tesla closed it Mateo plant today by firing the rest of the AI team still working there. 200 people laid off, that were not salaried, showing Musk plans to make far deeper cuts than he specified. Stock down 5% more on the news. So far they lost 50% of their value since the Twitter deal was announced.

This cut will also deeply slow advances to his AI.

At this pace money may be in simply shorting Musk.

My tip is that he has realised self driving cars are a bit of a meme and the technology to do it safely isn't there, so why pour billions into a dead end.

He should communicate that better though

He is planning to rehire these people at the Buffalo factory, with no work from home contracts, for a lower wage after the recession. He still is all in on self-driving. He gets 6k for enchanced AI driving and 12k for full self-driving where legal per car sale.

Jun 30, 2022 8:11:15 GMT c said:

He is planning to rehire these people at the Buffalo factory, with no work from home contracts, for a lower wage after the recession. He still is all in on self-driving. He gets 6k for enchanced AI driving and 12k for full self-driving where legal per car sale.

Yeah, but there isn't a big need for developers now, what he has is about it as good as it gets with current technology.
Maybe he buys an AI Hardware company.

These are not devs, they were content taggers for AI training.

And he still needs AI devs as his cars fail safety tests in specific situations so you cannot use full AI legally in the US.

Jun 30, 2022 8:31:58 GMT c said:

These are not devs, they were content taggers for AI training.

And he still needs AI devs as his cars fail safety tests in specific situations so you cannot use full AI legally in the US.

That's the point, the current technology will never be legal to utilise AI.
Not until it stops running over black people and crashing cars.

The irony is they crash less than humans, but are considered safe than human drivers.

Other companies will have stuff greenlit soon for almost full AI driving on the highway. Testing has been done and the trucks proved safe for highway use. The main hangup are the teamster unions. The full AI trucks though still need humans for the paperwork, roadside repair, alternate routing, bad weather driving, etc. It will just allow them to drive a whole lot more in a day since they will not need to actually pay attention to the driving part at all in most situations.

Unlike Musk, other companies are not selling the AI as driverless though and are delimiting what can and cannot be done safely. Musk by framing his shit as not needing a driver, means he needs to raise to the burden of evidence. Other companies know you do need a driver for problems that will come up and sell their AI with the driver in mind.  So the black person issue for instance, is not of concern for the other trucks, as the human driver will drive the last 5 miles through the urban centers.  

Jun 30, 2022 11:43:12 GMT c said:

The irony is they crash less than humans, but are considered safe than human drivers.

Other companies will have stuff greenlit soon for almost full AI driving on the highway. Testing has been done and the trucks proved safe for highway use. The main hangup are the teamster unions. The full AI trucks though still need humans for the paperwork, roadside repair, alternate routing, bad weather driving, etc. It will just allow them to drive a whole lot more in a day since they will not need to actually pay attention to the driving part at all in most situations.

Unlike Musk, other companies are not selling the AI as driverless though and are delimiting what can and cannot be done safely. Musk by framing his shit as not needing a driver, means he needs to raise to the burden of evidence. Other companies know you do need a driver for problems that will come up and sell their AI with the driver in mind.  So the black person issue for instance, is not of concern for the other trucks, as the human driver will drive the last 5 miles through the urban centers.  

I think there is a huge limitation in Musk's technology because he insists on vision rather than supplementing it with Lidar.
Lidar is proven and makes it near impossible to crash into an object.
Cars have had radar assisted cruise control and crash avoidance for years.

Musk is using lidar now actually on test models. Likely will be in his commercial stuff. Testing videos show it is like integrated well at all right now though. Likely using it to train his AI.

Other companies moving away from Lidar and using stereophotography. Cornell showed it loses very little accuracy but saves 10k in costs. The cost is why Musk does not want to use it. He is struggling to get the cars cost down and the current Tesla is 45k. Add in a 10k laser system and that is 55k+ car now, that few will buy.

rad I know you've recently found your calling and all that, but if you're looking for work there is a janitor spot open. I thought they were adding a 2nd one to my office, but turns out there's a large annex in the same city. Hours aren't great (3-11) but it's fulltime and unless a veteran applies you'd likely get it. If you're good that's fine, but a job like this might not be the worst idea in a recession and a down economy.

Jul 7, 2022 1:04:30 GMT @ness said:

rad I know you've recently found your calling and all that, but if you're looking for work there is a janitor spot open. I thought they were adding a 2nd one to my office, but turns out there's a large annex in the same city. Hours aren't great (3-11) but it's fulltime and unless a veteran applies you'd likely get it. If you're good that's fine, but a job like this might not be the worst idea in a recession and a down economy.

Thanks for reaching out bud. Not sure how far the commute would be but message me when you get a chance on the finer details and I'll look into it.

Kitboga unveiling the ultimate WSB bet investment, buying SPY options the day after they expire.

This article is apost mortem of something we were discussing before the fact.

www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/jul/12/they-couldnt-even-scream-any-more-they-were-just-sobbing-the-amateur-investors-ruined-by-the-crypto-crash

Jul 13, 2022 15:02:40 GMT iNCY said:

This article is apost mortem of something we were discussing before the fact.

www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/jul/12/they-couldnt-even-scream-any-more-they-were-just-sobbing-the-amateur-investors-ruined-by-the-crypto-crash

ESPN has a podcast, The Right Time, ostensibly about sports but the host, Bomani Jones, has a background in economics. He has been railing on crypto for ages as "funny money" and has been trying to warn his listeners, especially when all the crypto advertisements with sports started showing up. There's one ad with Steph Curry that talks about how he doesn't need an expert on crypto. Response: "Somebody better be a goddamn expert with my money!"

A while back when Terra crashed I bought $100 worth. It is now worth $48, but has been "stable" at that point.

LMAO “Bear Market Screaming Therapy Group”

Now that people did lose everything, curious how many of these coins end up being considered ponzi schemes.  I know this is where Taleb feel, as that article highlights.  Few years back he laid out a paper saying crypto had a negative economic value due to upkeep and he was driven off social media as people went fucking insane.  Old man Taleb is getting to be a curmudgeon these days, but he was not really wrong, the currency had no value outside of what people assigned to it, and innately had an upkeep cost attached that was growing larger.  

Those people would have been better off following Wu-Tang Financial.

I still say the way to go is dog money! What can possibly go wrong?

Toomey and some other GOP peeps saying that for Americans to have security in retirement funds they need to be allowed to invest in Crypto today. Can't wait for Fox and all now to shift to pro-crypto.

Crypto was not the disease, it was the symptom.
You print money and it's like a river flooding over a dam wall, it will always find its own path.
Then when the sun comes out, it all dries up and it's like it never was.