Work together... is it wrong to assume it's mostly out of normies cuck hands?

The cynic in me thinks all of the talk about recession in the US is to scare the feds off of the rate hike expected this week. None of the major media mega corporations want a rate hike as they want that cheap money.

We are seeing massive issues in tech, but that was long due. Tech bros and startup culture was always kind of a scam with constant overpromises and underdelivery.

We SHOULD be in the recession, but by all accounts consumer spending is still high, allowing companies to raise prices, and the labor market is the best it has ever been in the US. This likely is not a recession but something else. Seen it called a weird economy that is paradoxically showing both signs of recession and a strong economy. Americans fear recession basically, but are not taking any actions expected during a recession and are spending with reckless abandon. Same for corporations. They are still buying stock and working with almost no reserve cash to weather a storm. So likely if shit does goes tits up, we go well beyond that graphic into oh shit territory and need bailouts.


Europe however looks fucked.

Jul 26, 2022 14:25:56 GMT @ness said:

Work together... is it wrong to assume it's mostly out of normies cuck hands?

Take a pay cut for the economy is what people want basically.  They will claim unemployment benefits during COVID forced companies to pay more in wages, and that triggered the recession.  Next step will be bailouts for corporations making records profits, but not for people as that would only lead to more inflation and extend the recession.  

The American economy right now

One way to beat this nuclear heat.

Jul 26, 2022 15:00:44 GMT c said:

The cynic in me thinks all of the talk about recession in the US is to scare the feds off of the rate hike expected this week. None of the major media mega corporations want a rate hike as they want that cheap money.

We are seeing massive issues in tech, but that was long due. Tech bros and startup culture was always kind of a scam with constant overpromises and underdelivery.

We SHOULD be in the recession, but by all accounts consumer spending is still high, allowing companies to raise prices, and the labor market is the best it has ever been in the US. This likely is not a recession but something else. Seen it called a weird economy that is paradoxically showing both signs of recession and a strong economy. Americans fear recession basically, but are not taking any actions expected during a recession and are spending with reckless abandon. Same for corporations. They are still buying stock and working with almost no reserve cash to weather a storm. So likely if shit does goes tits up, we go well beyond that graphic into oh shit territory and need bailouts.


Europe however looks fucked.

No big corporation wants cheap money any more, it is very clear that cheap money leads to inflation which is chewing the ass of corporate profits.
Watch the current reporting season, Walmart already cut earnings and had its share price implode.

Jul 26, 2022 15:04:37 GMT c said:

Jul 26, 2022 14:25:56 GMT @ness said:

Work together... is it wrong to assume it's mostly out of normies cuck hands?

Take a pay cut for the economy is what people want basically.  They will claim unemployment benefits during COVID forced companies to pay more in wages, and that triggered the recession.  Next step will be bailouts for corporations making records profits, but not for people as that would only lead to more inflation and extend the recession.  

I will like to predict ZERO chance of a corporate bailout.
The path out of inflation is to cut spending, any additional debt is inflationary.
Nobody is calling for wage cuts, what they are calling for is a rise in unemployment.
Which sucks... But employment levels as they are now show the market is over-heated.

Shopify just announced a 10% cut to their workforce.

Meanwhile....




Honestly, this is just embarrassing.
Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP have bene the definition of a recession for more than a generation.

Everything else is bullshit... "Oh the fundamentals..." Nobody knows what a recession looks like after successive governments created trillions of dollars out of thin air... because nobody would be stupid enough to try that!

Recessions however are not noted for near full employment and extremely high consumer spending. So if you use a strict definition sure it is a recession technically. But labor and consumers are not acting like it.

Two largest bailouts in the US (in modern times) came from Republicans presidents with support from Senate Republicans.  Corporations want a bailout they will get their bailout.  2008 was Bush, 2020 was Trump.  Both of their bailouts made the Biden bailout tiny in comparison.  So if you are thinking fiscal conservatives will stop it, they have not done so in the past.

Also again the layoffs seemed mostly linked to tech, which is crashing at the moment. What many are painting as a full recession seems more likely a sector collapse. Which makes sense given how much some of these tech groups also invested in crypto, blockchain vaporware and VR.

Shit like shopify laying off 10% of people may seem like a lot but that was 1000 people.   US added 372k new jobs in June by comparison with 11.3 million open jobs.  

Jul 27, 2022 2:52:35 GMT c said:

Recessions however are not noted for near full employment and extremely high consumer spending. So if you use a strict definition sure it is a recession technically. But labor and consumers are not acting like it.

Two largest bailouts in the US (in modern times) came from Republicans presidents with support from Senate Republicans.  Corporations want a bailout they will get their bailout.  2008 was Bush, 2020 was Trump.  Both of their bailouts made the Biden bailout tiny in comparison.  So if you are thinking fiscal conservatives will stop it, they have not done so in the past.

No two recessions are alike.
This recession is government induced with the idea that it is better to run the car off the road and into a ditch than it is to drive off the edge of a cliff.
i don't know why you keep bringing up Republicans, the spending and monetary policy has been reckless in every government since Obama, Democrat and Republican.

Jul 27, 2022 2:59:43 GMT c said:

Also again the layoffs seemed mostly linked to tech, which is crashing at the moment. What many are painting as a full recession seems more likely a sector collapse. Which makes sense given how much some of these tech groups also invested in crypto, blockchain vaporware and VR.

Shit like shopify laying off 10% of people may seem like a lot but that was 1000 people.   US added 372k new jobs in June by comparison with 11.3 million open jobs.  

Most of the lay offs are based on the faulty predictions that their share price reflected future earnings.
As I have been posting about recently most of these companies are full of completely useless people adding nothing to the business.
These zoomers have no idea of the pain that is coming for them, Zuckerberg was talking to staff about the impending layoffs and more stringent targets and a brain dead employee asks if the Covid-19 mental health days will continue.... Guaranteed that person is gone by the end of the month.

Every company has their own unique reasons for going down the shitter
Shopify thought the internet shopping trend of the pandemic would continue indefinitely... it didn't
Social media companies like Snap and Twitter are seeing a collapse in advertising revenue which indicates a recession is approaching.
In addition a lot of the pump and dump crypto scams have stopped advertising which were spending enormous numbers.

But none of the prices have really crashed, they are still trading at over 10 PE.

You can also see that the contagion is not limited to tech, they are the canary in the coalmine, the revenue today is created today.
Companies like Walmart, Target and Home Depot have bought up big on stock because of Covid delays and are just now starting to feel the weight of excess inventory they can't move.

Then there were the exuberantly stupid pricing... Weber and Traeger Grills, HP, Apple etc. because people bought one of your product in lockdowns does not mean that can continue happening.
Many of these companies have not realized any additional revenue, they have just pulled the income of the next three years forwards and now they're screwed... Which is why semiconductors are also dead.

It is all logical and no magical.

A lot of the problems in tech are what you mentioned in the past, they really were overpriced trash were price was far higher than real value. And crypto and a lot of startups were pretty much straight scams at the company level which is leading to a shit ton of investor retreat right now.

Semiconductors are a different story, that is weird chinese shit right now with their 0 COVID policy shutting down the factories. We let China take that shit over for cheap parts and now are gravely paying the price for it.

Retail is still moving shit a high levels in the US. The inventory is moving which is why this is a weird economy. It should not be moving, or slowing, but retail and even services are enduring. People are bitching about inflation and claiming their spending is different, but retail has not changed yet. And only really tech is laying off right now, most other places are still hiring, which is not expected during an economic downturn.


For the zoomers, they will be fine. Not in tech, there they are fucked, but in other industries they will be welcomed as many places are still hurting for talent, and some places are reorganizing into what zoomers want as they can pay less with the perks. People will work for less cash at a place with values they identify with. The old this is what work should be attitudes are basically a tax on corporate employers by their workers now. People will put up with that shit, but only if you keep them well paid and they will leave first chance they are unhappy in this labor market.

Jul 27, 2022 3:49:26 GMT c said:

A lot of the problems in tech are what you mentioned in the past, they really were overpriced trash were price was far higher than real value. And crypto and a lot of startups were pretty much straight scams at the company level which is leading to a shit ton of investor retreat right now.

Semiconductors are a different story, that is weird chinese shit right now with their 0 COVID policy shutting down the factories. We let China take that shit over for cheap parts and now are gravely paying the price for it.

Retail is still moving shit a high levels in the US. The inventory is moving which is why this is a weird economy. It should not be moving, or slowing, but retail and even services are enduring. People are bitching about inflation and claiming their spending is different, but retail has not changed yet. And only really tech is laying off right now, most other places are still hiring, which is not expected during an economic downturn.


For the zoomers, they will be fine. Not in tech, there they are fucked, but in other industries they will be welcomed as many places are still hurting for talent, and some places are reorganizing into what zoomers want as they can pay less with the perks. People will work for less cash at a place with values they identify with. The old this is what work should be attitudes are basically a tax on corporate employers by their workers now. People will put up with that shit, but only if you keep them well paid and they will leave first chance they are unhappy in this labor market.

Yeah, no doubt.
We went from companies needing a proof of concept to people putting together IPO's to start a company.
Crypto outside a few very specific use cases is a total scam.

The tech zoomers and the zoomer job market in general are in for a rude shock when it comes to the reality of a none QE inflated job market.
There are companies looking for engineers, but they don't have private chefs and Xbox rooms.
They also don't give days off for mental wellness, they pay you a salary to do a job... And crazily, they expect you to do it!

11 million jobs is not all engineers. Largest group needed in unskilled labors in healthcare.

Employers offer the perks they think will get them to get employees to sign. In the past it was gyms and country club shit that got in people, these days it is video games and shit. And frankly, no one making wages most people will ever see are getting these perks. It will be those same tech people leaving for other tech jobs offering perks to recruit the talent. Know when my friend was in tech bars with custom beer on tap in the office were a thing.

What jobs in unskilled healthcare? Or is that just the generic 10/hr bullshit jobs they can't fill?

The people who do the grunt work basically. Caregivers, assistants and what not are all unskilled.

Jul 27, 2022 19:52:54 GMT @ness said:

What jobs in unskilled healthcare? Or is that just the generic 10/hr bullshit jobs they can't fill?

Health care nursing is the worst!


In other new the Fed cracks out another 75 basis points. They're pumping those brakes and grabbing onto the steering wheel with white knuckled fear. Of course the market responds by melting up over 2% because why not?

Jul 27, 2022 22:11:13 GMT iNCY said:

Of course the market responds by melting up over 2% because why not?

There go my SPY puts.

Jul 27, 2022 22:11:13 GMT iNCY said:

Jul 27, 2022 19:52:54 GMT @ness said:

What jobs in unskilled healthcare? Or is that just the generic 10/hr bullshit jobs they can't fill?

Health care nursing is the worst!


In other new the Fed cracks out another 75 basis points. They're pumping those brakes and grabbing onto the steering wheel with white knuckled fear. Of course the market responds by melting up over 2% because why not?

Media investors been warning that 2% is the breaking point for a full market meltdown.  What is hilarious is the market ROSE on the news.  So yeah those media guys were total fucking BS.  Of course they are still claiming massive layoffs are coming as a result of that rate hike.

My favorite story I seen so far is stocks collapse after market close because the Dow dropped .1%, which is 30 points.

This is by far the most responsible reporting of the financial situation in Australia.
We hit 6.1% inflation yesterday and are fully acknowledging the upcoming recession.

www.news.com.au/finance/economy/australian-economy/mistake-albanese-government-is-making-as-we-slide-into-recession/news-story/cde706d1ea0ec55e84fb116e9c4b7685


This is the interesting graph on household debt to GDP:




I do think they are downplaying the risks in the USA.
The primary difference to Australia and New Zealand is that the US essentially nationalised the housing debt crisis following the GFC.
The result is the same, both economies have debt driven growth cycles, as the debt becomes more expensive the problem gets worrying at a rapid rate.
For years, car are sold with numbers like $x per week, or furniture with nothing to pay until 2025... This is alarming.

When I bought my house my arse rattled at the number I was borrowing from the bank.
Today (young people especially) don't even look at the purchase price and focus only on the repayments, which has become the normal because there is a generation (mine included) who grew up on low interest rates. My generation remembers the late 80's though and the economic pain that came with it.
Young people are like kids who eat nothing but ice cream and are about to have their first visit to the dentist with a tooth ache.

Can you blame Gen Z for this when they only contribute to less than 10% if home buys?

And before you get into car buying dealers note that Gen Z is hard to sell to because they demand to know all the details first, particularly regarding repayment, which seems to be the opposite of what is being implied about them.

Jul 28, 2022 1:58:03 GMT c said:

Can you blame Gen Z for this when they only contribute to less than 10% if home buys?

And before you get into car buying dealers note that Gen Z is hard to sell to because they demand to know all the details first, particularly regarding repayment, which seems to be the opposite of what is being implied about them.

I don't think so, the growth of pay day lenders and buy now pay later has expanded with the arrival of millennials and zoomers.
In my day if someone tried to get you to sign for something at 16% interest, we would tell them to "blow it out their arse" to keep the Aussie vernacular flowing today.

US officially in a recession... Well in the non Biden approved historical metric, which happens to be the one we all use.

Media completely step 1, print stories about the recession coming. Step 2, print stories about corporate bailouts incoming.

Wall Street up on news of recession. America all in on those sweet, sweet bailout funds.

Jul 29, 2022 1:22:29 GMT c said:

Wall Street up on news of recession. America all in on those sweet, sweet bailout funds.

Wait until after the mid terms I guess.
The rally makes no sense.
Forecast downgrades are coming with an uptick of frenzied buying.

Makes perfect sense when during the last two economic downturns the GOP themselves bailed out wall street and dems would bail them out if they threatened to pass loses to the American people.

Jul 29, 2022 1:59:40 GMT c said:

Makes perfect sense when during the last two economic downturns the GOP themselves bailed out wall street and dems would bail them out if they threatened to pass loses to the American people.

You keep saying this, doesn't make it true.
Obama bailed out the GFC.

The definition of a recession is now the subject of an edit war on Wikipedia.
You have to love democracy.

Jul 29, 2022 2:01:21 GMT iNCY said:

Jul 29, 2022 1:59:40 GMT c said:

Makes perfect sense when during the last two economic downturns the GOP themselves bailed out wall street and dems would bail them out if they threatened to pass loses to the American people.

You keep saying this, doesn't make it true.
Obama bailed out the GFC.

Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 was in 2008.  Obama took office in 2009 and was elected after this was signed into law.  Obama did the smaller American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009.  People assume Obama did both, just like already people claim Biden did the 2020 stimulus bills.  

Jul 29, 2022 3:12:32 GMT iNCY said:

The definition of a recession is now the subject of an edit war on Wikipedia.
You have to love democracy.

Definition of recession is subjective.   The alternatives should be listed as not everyone says it is as simple as two negative GDP quarters.  The consensus on it seems in despite in by economics experts as well.

Also the 2001 recession did not have two quarters of lower GDP. Which implies that the definition is wrong or that only the 2002 part was a recession.

Ditto for the classic recession, the 1970's recession.  That recession only has two quarters or negative growth.  Which would mean the most well known recession in US history was not a recession except during a 6 month period.