Changing up my preview thread this year because I didn't feel like doing the all 32 team previews again (happy to do roster breakdowns by request!) but I did have some ideas for season preview content that I wanted to write up between now and September 8. I placed a few season win bets on the weekend so I thought I write up the five teams that I most strongly felt would beat or fail to reach their lines.

Houston over 4.5 - this being so low fills me with a lot of confidence. They won four games last season, Davis Mills and Nico Collins have some experience under their belt, and they have fortified the defence with some genuine NFL starting level players like Mario Addison, Jerry Hughes and Steven Nelson. Playing the NFC East instead of the West this season will help as well.

Miami over 8.5 - another team who seem underrated based on last season's record and the fact they got significantly better on paper. The offence has the potential to be really dynamic, Mike McDaniel installing the Shanahan offence with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, and Terron Armstead fortifying the previously poor o-line. 

Pittsburgh over 7.5 - Mike Tomlin simply doesn't go under .500, he got to 8-8 with Mason Rudolph a couple of season ago, and I believe can do at least that well with whatever combination of Pickett/Trubisky/Rudolph ends up starting games this year. Matt Canada can finally run some of his motion offence now that Ben is gone, and he has the skill players to facilitate that with a deep group of receivers. Meanwhile defensively I can't imagine the Steelers being as bad against the run again this season as they were last.

Chicago under 6.5 - in an offseason where most teams were unprecedently aggressive in providing their quarterbacks with the best possible supporting casts, the Bears stand out for putting it all on Justin Fields' shoulders. A new unproven OC, mediocre receivers and offensive linemen added to the roster, there's just nothing to be optimistic about.

Arizona under 8.5 - DeAndre Hopkins is suspended for the first six games, and they're relying on a bunch of late round rookies to replace their franchise's all time leading pass rusher. The AFC West is on the schedule (where they also face short weeks/travel) and they also benefitted significantly last season from fumble and penalty luck which is unsustainable.

Can you do the Eagles for me?

Aug 17, 2022 2:49:50 GMT CM Punk'd said:

Can you do the Eagles for me?

I love the look of Philadelphia's roster on paper - I think they had a fantastic offseason and it's probably only because there was so many high profile transactions that they haven't really been hyped up as much as they otherwise might have been. Obviously how far this team can go depends on whether Jalen Hurts is able to take another step forward now that his supporting cast is upgraded. Last season he established that his floor is at least a solid starting level quarterback (mainly because of his running ability), but he made enough improvements on his passing to suggest that there's more to come now that he has a new big time weapon. AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith could be one of the league's best duos because they have such perfectly complimentary skill sets. Brown is one of the league's best receivers against press coverage, and that means that Smith can be a true Z rather than having to play contested ball which is not his strength.

Largely due to injuries, Miles Sanders hasn't been able to elevate himself into the upper echelon of running backs. He's in a contract year so he should be motivated, but I can definitely see a split with Running Back U's Kenneth Gainwell who is a better receiver and blocker. They get to run behind one of the league's best offensive lines, anchored by elite veterans Jason Kelce and Lane Johnson, and elevated by the remarkable rise of LT Jordan Mailata who went from international development project to one of the league's best tackles almost overnight. 

Defensively, the big weakness last season was a lack of pass rush. They were second last in the league in sacks, but regain veteran Brandon Graham after he was lost for the majority of last campaign with an Achilles tear. He'll be supplemented by Haason Reddick, after Carolina made the odd choice of only signing him to a one-year deal, Philadelphia should benefit from a guy who has registered 23.5 sacks over the past two seasons. There's better than average depth upfront, Josh Sweat and Javon Hargrave both had 7.5 sacks last year, and they drafted Fletcher Cox's successor in Georgia's Jordan Davis who we know has a rare size/athleticism combination. The secondary couldn't hold up because of the lack of pressure generated on opposing quarterbacks (only recording 12 interceptions, and league-worst completion percentage allowed) but like adding Brown to Smith on the offence, scooped up James Bradberry to be the complimentary corner with Darius Slay. This was another case of benefitting from another team's mismanagement, and although Bradberry wasn't quite at his best last season with the Giants, he is a pro bowl level player when he is. 

Philly should win the NFC East, they have the horses, and benefit from one of the league's easiest looking schedules only playing 5 teams that made the playoffs last season. They open against Detroit, Minnesota, Washington and Jacksonville which presents a real opportunity to burst out of the blocks. How they fare when they do eventually face stiffer competition and try to avoid another humiliation like the playoff game against the Bucs, depends on if Hurts' development and whether Brown's presence results in the increased potency of their passing offence. 

Next up I've got a list of my potential breakout players for the upcoming season:

Jaguars RB Travis Etienne - Etienne missed all of his rookie season because of that harlot Liz Franc, but given how much of a disaster Jacksonville was under Urban Meyer, it was probably the best time to lose a year to injury. With things likely to be much more functional this season, and Trevor Lawrence with some experience under his belt, Etienne is in a position to provide a big play threat that the Jaguars offence desperately needs, after ranking 31st in the NFL in 15 yard plus plays last season.

Broncos CB Patrick Surtain II - cornerback is the most difficult position for a rookie to transition to the pros, but Surtain has already proved that he's going to be a force in the league for a long time. He ranked fifth best in EPA as the closest defender in coverage and was already starting to be used by Vic Fangio as an island cover corner by season's end. 

Texans TE Brevin Jordan - going from a scratch for the first seven games to playing 50% of snaps by season's end projects well for Jordan taking over as the first string TE in Houston, and given their overall lack of receiving options I can definitely see a bigger stat line for Jordan in his second season.

49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk - time for someone who's not a second year player, although Aiyuk would have featured on many of these lists in that situation 12 months ago. Initially a victim of Kyle Shanahan's tough love on receivers, Aiyuk came home with a wet sail, his two highest yardage games in Week 16 and 17. Having a quarterback capable of throwing the ball deep should open up more opportunities for him this season.

Rams LB Ernest Jones - similar to Brevin Jordan, Jones didn't see the field until Week 8 of his rookie campaign but grew and grew from there, really announcing himself to the world in the Super Bowl where he played a really significant role in the Rams win. He showcased a real knack for making splash plays, whilst avoiding errors (6.1% missed tackle rate better than Fred Warner, Demario Davis and Denzel Perryman) and has the added benefit in 2022 of playing alongside future HoFer Bobby Wagner.

What's a guy got to do to get some engagement around here - talk about quarterbacks?!

Here's my rankings heading into the season, which I will preface includes some consideration of how I see their potential:
1. Patrick Mahomes
2. Josh Allen
3. Aaron Rodgers
4. Justin Herbert
5. Tom Brady
6. Joe Burrow
7. Lamar Jackson
8. Matthew Stafford
9. Russell Wilson
10. Dak Prescott
11. Kyler Murray
12. Derek Carr
13. Matt Ryan
14. Ryan Tannehill
15. Kirk Cousins
16. Mac Jones
17. Jalen Hurts
18. Baker Mayfield
19. Tua Tagovailoa
20. Trevor Lawrence
21. Jameis Winston
22. Marcus Mariota
23. Justin Fields
24. Trey Lance
25. Davis Mills
26. Daniel Jones
28. Carson Wentz
28. Jared Goff
29. Zach Wilson
30. Mitch Trubisky
31. Geno Smith
32. Jacoby Brissett

Z Wilson is too low IMHO, I think he has more talent than some of the guys listed above and came on pretty good by year's end. Especially when it came to ball security despite having next to nothing to throw to. Don't see it that he's the worst rated QB of last years crop nor is Lance and Fields that far ahead of him.

Lost me after that. 

Josh Allen may be #2 overall but he will be #1 when the season is over! BILLS GOING ALL THE WAY BABY LETS GOOOOO

SEASON PREVIEW: SHORTS AND CHICKEN WINGS AND BROKEN TABLES

Aug 31, 2022 16:04:10 GMT RT said:

Josh Allen may be #2 overall but he will be #1 when the season is over! BILLS GOING ALL THE WAY BABY LETS GOOOOO

SEASON PREVIEW: SHORTS AND CHICKEN WINGS AND BROKEN TABLES

Shut up 

Aug 31, 2022 10:13:25 GMT Blindy said:

Z Wilson is too low IMHO, I think he has more talent than some of the guys listed above and came on pretty good by year's end. Especially when it came to ball security despite having next to nothing to throw to. Don't see it that he's the worst rated QB of last years crop nor is Lance and Fields that far ahead of him.

Lost me after that. 

I'll admit to a bit of a personal bias that might be pushing Fields a little high, but I think that's the part you can take issue with rather than Wilson being too low. They both sit closely together at the bottom of the league in a lot of areas from last season, but Fields clearly rates better in all advanced stats:

Lamar will forever be too high. Dudes a hack.

Arguing between Fields and Wilson is redundant right now. Both showed flashes and both have a ton of question marks and bad on tape that leave their futures uncertain. They are in the same tier.

And if we are really splitting hairs - I’d take any coaching staff in the league over what Fields had last year. Also probably the roster around him outside of maybe Montgomery.

Sept 1, 2022 0:41:19 GMT UT said:

Lamar will forever be too high. Dudes a hack.

you can sit on 'he's just a runner' corner as long as you like, but you're wrong

Aug 31, 2022 23:53:26 GMT @admin said:

Aug 31, 2022 10:13:25 GMT Blindy said:

Z Wilson is too low IMHO, I think he has more talent than some of the guys listed above and came on pretty good by year's end. Especially when it came to ball security despite having next to nothing to throw to. Don't see it that he's the worst rated QB of last years crop nor is Lance and Fields that far ahead of him.

Lost me after that. 

I'll admit to a bit of a personal bias that might be pushing Fields a little high, but I think that's the part you can take issue with rather than Wilson being too low. They both sit closely together at the bottom of the league in a lot of areas from last season, but Fields clearly rates better in all advanced stats:

Lance is my bigger gripe in all fairness, he has done little to nothing to warrant being this high. I don't even think he's better than Garappolo but he's starting due to the ransom Lynch and Shanahan gave up to get him.

Sept 1, 2022 0:41:19 GMT UT said:

Lamar will forever be too high. Dudes a hack.

Arguing between Fields and Wilson is redundant right now. Both showed flashes and both have a ton of question marks and bad on tape that leave their futures uncertain. They are in the same tier.

And if we are really splitting hairs - I’d take any coaching staff in the league over what Fields had last year. Also probably the roster around him outside of maybe Montgomery.

Fields had the worse supporting cast but the end of the year Zach Wilson lost Corey Davis, Elijah Moore, Michael Carter(RB) and had Tyler Kroft at TE.

It was pretty much Braxton Berrios as the WR1. At least Mooney was pretty good. 

There's a reason the Jets threw 48 mill between Uzomah & Conklin and took the 2 Ohio St guys(Wilson and Ruckert) with a top 10 pick and a 3rd. Took Breece Hall with a high 2nd just to be sure. 

Sept 1, 2022 0:48:21 GMT Blindy said:

Lance is my bigger gripe in all fairness, he has done little to nothing to warrant being this high. I don't even think he's better than Garappolo but he's starting due to the ransom Lynch and Shanahan gave up to get him.

Always going to be tricky to rank someone who has barely played - but his upside with his surrounding pieces and coach is so much higher than everyone I have below him. It could not turn out well, but he could also be playing in the Super Bowl, none of the others are even remotely close to that. They've already shown reasons why they aren't going to be starters for much longer. 

Sept 1, 2022 0:54:25 GMT @admin said:

Sept 1, 2022 0:48:21 GMT Blindy said:

Lance is my bigger gripe in all fairness, he has done little to nothing to warrant being this high. I don't even think he's better than Garappolo but he's starting due to the ransom Lynch and Shanahan gave up to get him.

Always going to be tricky to rank someone who has barely played - but his upside with his surrounding pieces and coach is so much higher than everyone I have below him. It could not turn out well, but he could also be playing in the Super Bowl, none of the others are even remotely close to that. They've already shown reasons why they aren't going to be starters for much longer. 

He has the physical tools and a very good coaching staff but the Niners OLine is a huge dark cloud outside of Silverback. Losses of Mack & Laken Tomlinson has that interior OLine as something to watch so Lance will have to really make it work outside the pocket. Think they have a rookie at RG and a 2nd year guy at LG and McGlinchey in year 3 at RT. 

(They got 2 Notre Dame guys so I want them to do well but it's really suspect heading into the year)

Sept 1, 2022 0:48:21 GMT Blindy said:

Aug 31, 2022 23:53:26 GMT @admin said:

I'll admit to a bit of a personal bias that might be pushing Fields a little high, but I think that's the part you can take issue with rather than Wilson being too low. They both sit closely together at the bottom of the league in a lot of areas from last season, but Fields clearly rates better in all advanced stats:

Lance is my bigger gripe in all fairness, he has done little to nothing to warrant being this high. I don't even think he's better than Garappolo but he's starting due to the ransom Lynch and Shanahan gave up to get him.

We are so going to talk about this on my podcast 😂

Is Sam Martin good?

Sept 1, 2022 4:38:57 GMT RT said:

Is Sam Martin good?

Yes, very solid! I alluded to this in my post in the preseason thread but Denver did Buffalo a huge favour here, to be able to scoop up a guy who was top-5 in net average last season given the circumstance is a big win. 

He also has a cute dog.

Noting down my predictions from the podcast today:

MVP: Justin Herbert
DPOY: Micah Parsons
OROY: Kenny Pickett
DROY: Travon Walker
CPOY: Saquon Barkley

AFC playoff teams: Bills, Ravens, Colts, Chiefs (Chargers, Dolphins, Bengals)
NFC playoff teams: Eagles, Packers, Bucs, 49ers (Saints, Rams, Vikings)

AFC Championship: Chargers beat Bills
NFC Championship: Bucs beat Eagles
Super Bowl: Chargers beat Bucs

You got the Niners winning the division with Trey Lance at QB?

Sept 5, 2022 16:13:38 GMT thereallt said:

You got the Niners winning the division with Trey Lance at QB?

Yep - I'm surprised how many people have seemingly written Lance off before he's (basically) even played. I'm happy to admit that they are one of the teams with the biggest variance in outcomes this season, but their ceiling is absolutely a Super Bowl contender.

Jalen Hurts at 17? Sheesh dude. I think Hurts has a real chance at winning MVP this season.

Sept 6, 2022 16:09:41 GMT KING KID said:

Jalen Hurts at 17? Sheesh dude. I think Hurts has a real chance at winning MVP this season.

I think you're buying too much into the fantasy hype here. I'm high on Philly in general but it would take a Josh Allen type leap for him to even be in the conversation, and there's a reason people call it a Josh Allen leap. 

Sept 7, 2022 0:03:50 GMT @admin said:

Sept 6, 2022 16:09:41 GMT KING KID said:

Jalen Hurts at 17? Sheesh dude. I think Hurts has a real chance at winning MVP this season.

I think you're buying too much into the fantasy hype here. I'm high on Philly in general but it would take a Josh Allen type leap for him to even be in the conversation, and there's a reason people call it a Josh Allen leap. 

What about the Cam Newton leap?

I think the conversation for MVP will involve him, Herbert and Mahomes. I don’t think Josh Allen will be better then last year. Mahomes might win it if he pulls off what I think he’s going to pull off.

I’ve debated long and hard about this season and here are my final predictions for playoff standings.


AFC:
1- Colts
2- Bills
3- Chiefs
4- Bengals
5- Broncos
6- Dolphins
7- Chargers

Allen vs Herbert. Cheetah vs Chiefs. Burrow vs Russ. Let’s ride!

(No Raiders, Steelers or Patriots OR Ravens. Lamar injury ruins pay day.)

NFC:
1- 49ers
2- Bucs
3- Eagles
4- Vikings
5- Rams
6- Cowboys
7- Packers

Jettas vs Kupp. NFC East rivalry with Hurts vs Dak. TB12 vs Aaron Rodgers ONE LAST TIME.

(No Saints or Cardinals; Arizona fires HC after missing out on final week with another disaster finish.)

SCRIPT IT.

Sept 5, 2022 7:02:59 GMT @admin said:

Noting down my predictions from the podcast today:

MVP: Justin Herbert
DPOY: Micah Parsons
OROY: Kenny Pickett
DROY: Travon Walker
CPOY: Saquon Barkley

AFC playoff teams: Bills, Ravens, Colts, Chiefs (Chargers, Dolphins, Bengals)
NFC playoff teams: Eagles, Packers, Bucs, 49ers (Saints, Rams, Vikings)

AFC Championship: Chargers beat Bills
NFC Championship: Bucs beat Eagles
Super Bowl: Chargers beat Bucs

There's an awful lot of Chargers in here. The Chargers always find a way to choke.

Sept 7, 2022 18:36:00 GMT Gyro LC said:

Sept 5, 2022 7:02:59 GMT @admin said:

Noting down my predictions from the podcast today:

MVP: Justin Herbert
DPOY: Micah Parsons
OROY: Kenny Pickett
DROY: Travon Walker
CPOY: Saquon Barkley

AFC playoff teams: Bills, Ravens, Colts, Chiefs (Chargers, Dolphins, Bengals)
NFC playoff teams: Eagles, Packers, Bucs, 49ers (Saints, Rams, Vikings)

AFC Championship: Chargers beat Bills
NFC Championship: Bucs beat Eagles
Super Bowl: Chargers beat Bucs

There's an awful lot of Chargers in here. The Chargers always find a way to choke.

These picks were spontaneous but I definitely agree with you in hindsight, I just didn't want to be boring and pick Josh Allen and the Bills. I'm really confident in Herbert for MVP but I still don't have a particularly strong inclination for a Super Bowl winner.

I think we get Bengals/Rams 2 but this time Scheisty wins it.

I'm gonna say Bills over 49ers for the Super Bowl.

Need to get my predictions on record quick.

Division (NFC)
Packers
Eagles
Rams
Buccaneers

Wild Card (NFC)
Vikings
Panthers
49ers


Divisions (AFC)
Ravens
Bills
Chargers
Jaguars

Wild Card (AFC)
Chiefs
Broncos
Bengals

Super Bowl
Packers over Chiefs


MVP: Patrick Mahomes
OPOY: Justin Jefferson
DPOY: Rashan Gary
OROY: Romeo Doubs
DROY: Ahmad Gardner
COTY: Doug Pederson