Wages seemed to have peaked and sure there's been a few union victories, but we're also voting people into office that are the antithesis to worker's rights. Rents constantly going up and owning a home or even living alone feels like a luxury that are out of reach for normal people going forward. How are people affording children in this environment? Apps and delivery services are slowly getting rid of the retail model as we know it. Sure self driving trucks aren't here, but moving away from brick and mortar is no doubt gonna eliminate a lot of need for those long haulers.

What are we gonna do as society? It's all well and good to efficiently have the robots do the work to eliminate workers, but who's gonna buy the goods and services they provide? They've trained us well. We see rising wages as fast food makes too much rather than an emt makes too little. Are you worried about being out of work? Because let's be honest... how many of us are truly essential? WFH, dying industries, college being a lowkey scam, retirement a fantasy, etc. - some day the bill is gonna come due isn't it?

Does it feel like we're at the end of the "good times create weak men" part of the cycle? We're not guite in the hard times portion, but you can definitely see it from here.

Certainly to some degree we are living through the " good times create weak men " part of the cycle. Previous generations have had to endure War, most notably two World Wars and a great depression, hence making up the " hard times create strong men " part of the cycle. The post-war boom and economic growth in the decades that followed, fill out the middle part - Good times. And here we are, enduring a period where those good times have made weak men. As many people suggest, there is a sense of entitlement combined with a lack of work ethic, a dependency on comfort and a reduced self-reliance and constant need for safety nets... a very real victimhood mentality, despite being accustomed to unheard of levels of comfort, security, and abundance as compared to previous generations. 

Perhaps there's two conversations here. This should be the right climate for one to thrive in, but we're so obsessed with language and what does and doesn't offend us. Political discussion has (de)evolved into arguing over the correct use of pronouns and who and what can enter into the right or wrong bathrooms. We're obsessed with ticking boxes and in a backwards way, we're creating more of a divide by trying to be more inclusive. We put labels and definitions on everything. We have a generation of young people riddled with learning, anxiety and mental health issues in addition to being quickly offended at the smallest of inconveniences. Yet, the reality is, despite a pandemic - we've never had it better. 

The second conversation here, is around the housing issues / cost of living. I have these discussions regularly with different people, and quite frankly I doubt anyone has a real answer. Politicians talk of ways to ease cost of living issues, inflation, rate rises, etc. yet can never deliver on anything. But frankly, we all believe that everyone else is to blame - the banks, the government, the system, etc. It's always someone else's fault despite expectations today exceeding the wants and needs of previous generations, and I'll give you an example. Driving through an older part of town today the houses were all built from maybe the 1950s - 1980s. In contrast, the houses are about a quarter the size of a new build and the blocks the same. These houses were adequate then, as they were for decades. Pre-War homes locally are around the same size, maybe smaller. In an era where cost of living, mortgage stress and the ability to get finance for a new home is becoming incredibly more difficult - why aren't we building smaller homes? Cheaper for an individual or young family to build. Reduced running costs compared to larger homes - hence better for the environment. The only other answer I have is, people need to reduce their expectations. Maybe right now, a 5 bedroom mini mansion w/ 2.5 bathrooms isn't the best choice, maybe a 2 or 3 bedder town house or an older home is the answer. Sure, it's not what you want right now, but it would take a lot of heat of your finances and given housing growth, it will probably double in value anyway in less than 10 years and give you a nice bump when it comes time to sell. 

But to conclude, for every young person I see making headlines " on TikTok " bitching and moaning about whatever has offended him this week and looking to blame a boomer for his or her problems - I see 10 kids absolutely killing it. And for every person talking about how tough the climate is, I know 10, again... killing it. It's tough out there. It is. But maybe, a lot of it is media hype and there's a lot of people looking to blame the sudden cost of living to excuse poor choices. 

Besides the obvious social and economic changes there's also one thing to consider which is the State of Fear. With social media, 24 hour news cycle, and access to all information from around the world we all think everything is worse now, about everything. We weren't exposed to constant negative stories affecting mental health and forcing us to compare our lives to everyone else's.

I'm not undermining the current state of affairs, just pointing out our ability to make everything seem worse.

We won't likely change for the better until exterior circumstances (whether of our own creation or otherwise) force us to. And then that cycle will just likely repeat when things get good again. I do have faith in humanity as a whole to adapt no matter what (as long as we still have somewhere to stand), we've proven to be pretty damn good at that.

But if we don't destroy ourselves by the bomb or resource shortage, we'll likely end up doing it anyways by way of code and/or the vast distances created between us instead.

Keep voting Democrat @ness. That’ll teach you.

I've prayed for a housing market collapse or some degree of stabilization, I don't care how much imaginary money I lose - because that's what it is - if it means a massive door opens for buyers to get into the market. Yet, the only way for that to happen is, people need to stop buying houses. And that's the problem. A lot of people have money, a lot of money. And it's not uncommon. And it's not just the elite, or just the boomers, it's right across the board. It obviously creates competition in the market and hence the prices reflect the competition. 

Maybe ignoring the hyperbole, including my own. Maybe things are returning to a norm and the world is just experiencing that shock that maybe, some can't afford the luxury we all thought we were entitled to. And that in itself will force people to realign their ambitions/dreams with reality. 

I've picked a random suburb in Melbourne.. Melton West is technically Melbourne, right? Anyways, an a exercise... 

I found a house for $530k-$550k. www.realestate.com.au/property-house-vic-melton+west-145381248
Nice looking street, good size block. Seems like a good competitive price given other listings in the area. 

NAB ( National Bank ) offers 6.48% ( I'm sure I could find better... ) with a 10% deposit, repayments = $721 weekly. 

1.2km on foot away, I found this newer build for $630k-$660k. www.realestate.com.au/property-house-vic-melton+west-145306652
Same bank, same rate and a 10% deposit = $857 weekly. 

That's comparing $530k v $630k, which also means $10k difference in deposit. 

That's $136 difference a week, or if things stay exactly the same forever... that's $7,072 over the 12 months. Which isn't a lot, but could ease some pressure off the cost of living. On top of the $10,000 they didn't need for the deposit. 

This could be a really simplistic way of glossing over it, but a simple choice to buy a little older could save a buyer in Melton West ( those poor people.. ) the better half of $150 off the mortgage alone a week - which could go towards groceries, fuel, bills, etc. Or in many cases, it might mean they're not running at 110% expenditure week on week. And, if you consider the initial deposit is lower, $10k broken up over 52 weeks, that's $192 they didn't need to put towards the home, together that puts $328 back in the pocket, a week, or just over $17k a year. 

We bought a 300K house instead of a 450K-500K house. Sure, it's in an older neighborhood and it was built in 1969, BUT my friends' bought a brand new 450K house and had to put in 100K into it (yard, fence, blinds, finished basement). At the end of the day they now owe 550K and we owe 350K (it's less than that as we've been in our house for 4 years now) for everything we've done (windows, paint, flooring, furnace, hot water tank, landscaping, eaves, new kitchen). What is happening here is people are buying the older homes (as they sit on 1-2 lots) and are tearing them down and building monstrosities on them, two 2-storeys or infills (with 12 apartments no parking). Most of the older homes are bungalows so it sucks because when people figure out they can't do all those stairs any more and all the older bungalows are torn down, we'll be screwed and buying brand new bungalows/ranch style homes cost twice as much as 2-storeys. Not too mention the new homes have zero lot lines and no yards.

Dude is a mobile home a bad idea?

Gen Z would call that a " tiny house " and trendify living in a trailer for TikTok.

And look, it's not a terrible idea. I see " Over 55 " villages everywhere, where the houses are gloried portable buildings, nicely landscaped and gated. And realistically, they cost next to nothing.

Why they can't do this sort of thing for under 55s and screen applicants/purchasers to avoid these little communities becoming ghettos is beyond me. It's cheap, it's easy and for a lot of people, that's all they need. Sure, you can live in a trailer/caravan park, but it's a little different.

If anyone wants to have an honest non-hyperbole chat about this I'm up for it.

Where all the established ideas around wealth fall over is the idea that each generation should do better than the one before it.
Those post war glory years were a one off unlikely to ever be recreated.
The middle class was created by government policy and as they emerge needing a new one of everything, it's a rising tide lifting all boats. You buy an American made TV and car and the people making these get pay rises.
This works until you hit a saturation point in the market, everyone has a TV, then you switch from expansion to maintaining and without demand there is no pressure on wages

Then Japan copies the American play book and all of a sudden people in the US can have their wages and buy cheap stuff from overseas. Then Japan hits saturation point in the middle class, then Taiwan, then Korea, then China, all building their middle class off the spending power of the USA.

Now there's no more puff in the engine, no system without external energy can continue. This is what we have now, wages in the US flow offshore, there isn't demand, there isn't great profit, where will the money come from?

A famous politician here about 20 years ago decried that Australian was going to end up a nation of people serving each other coffee... And that's pretty much all we are now.

Jul 1, 2024 2:06:28 GMT @ness said:

Dude is a mobile home a bad idea?

Mobile home isn’t awful if you own the land. Trailer parks can be really bad.

Jul 5, 2024 2:10:03 GMT mikec said:

Jul 1, 2024 2:06:28 GMT @ness said:

Dude is a mobile home a bad idea?

Mobile home isn’t awful if you own the land. Trailer parks can be really bad.

I can see the attraction of a minimalist life, but the tiny home I probably taking it a little far.

I like the idea of a minimalist life, but some people really go a bit nuts like you can only have one bowl and one spoon.

I read a book a while ago which still bounces around my brain almost endlessly, it was called essentialism and it talks about not minimalism for the sake of it but living a life where you are only in your sweet spot of where you are most competent and happiest... I think about this a lot.

Jul 5, 2024 2:42:40 GMT iNCY said:

Jul 5, 2024 2:10:03 GMT mikec said:

Mobile home isn’t awful if you own the land. Trailer parks can be really bad.

I can see the attraction of a minimalist life, but the tiny home I probably taking it a little far.

I like the idea of a minimalist life, but some people really go a bit nuts like you can only have one bowl and one spoon.

I read a book a while ago which still bounces around my brain almost endlessly, it was called essentialism and it talks about not minimalism for the sake of it but living a life where you are only in your sweet spot of where you are most competent and happiest... I think about this a lot.

Mobile homes aren’t necessarily tiny homes. I lived in one for a while that was three bedroom two baths with a larger kitchen then what I have in my house now.

Jul 5, 2024 2:51:46 GMT mikec said:

Jul 5, 2024 2:42:40 GMT iNCY said:

I can see the attraction of a minimalist life, but the tiny home I probably taking it a little far.

I like the idea of a minimalist life, but some people really go a bit nuts like you can only have one bowl and one spoon.

I read a book a while ago which still bounces around my brain almost endlessly, it was called essentialism and it talks about not minimalism for the sake of it but living a life where you are only in your sweet spot of where you are most competent and happiest... I think about this a lot.

Mobile homes aren’t necessarily tiny homes. I lived in one for a while that was three bedroom two baths with a larger kitchen then what I have in my house now.

Sorry, my mistake.
We don't really have that here

Jul 1, 2024 3:09:42 GMT iNCY said:

If anyone wants to have an honest non-hyperbole chat about this I'm up for it.

Where all the established ideas around wealth fall over is the idea that each generation should do better than the one before it.
Those post war glory years were a one off unlikely to ever be recreated.
The middle class was created by government policy and as they emerge needing a new one of everything, it's a rising tide lifting all boats. You buy an American made TV and car and the people making these get pay rises.
This works until you hit a saturation point in the market, everyone has a TV, then you switch from expansion to maintaining and without demand there is no pressure on wages

Then Japan copies the American play book and all of a sudden people in the US can have their wages and buy cheap stuff from overseas. Then Japan hits saturation point in the middle class, then Taiwan, then Korea, then China, all building their middle class off the spending power of the USA.

Now there's no more puff in the engine, no system without external energy can continue. This is what we have now, wages in the US flow offshore, there isn't demand, there isn't great profit, where will the money come from?

A famous politician here about 20 years ago decried that Australian was going to end up a nation of people serving each other coffee... And that's pretty much all we are now.

Not only was the middle class manufactured, but along with that came the idea owning a home and the American Dream were synonymous.

The majority of the country rented until the 20th century.

The difference then - and one of the biggest issues I have with modern cities - is the pursuit of home ownership created suburbs, which meant living away from the rest of society (shops, work, food, etc), which in turn created a car-centric society.

That spiraled into NIMBY’s, the erosion of cities and the overall dwelling shortage.

It’s all tied together.

Jul 5, 2024 19:18:10 GMT KJ said:

Jul 1, 2024 3:09:42 GMT iNCY said:

If anyone wants to have an honest non-hyperbole chat about this I'm up for it.

Where all the established ideas around wealth fall over is the idea that each generation should do better than the one before it.
Those post war glory years were a one off unlikely to ever be recreated.
The middle class was created by government policy and as they emerge needing a new one of everything, it's a rising tide lifting all boats. You buy an American made TV and car and the people making these get pay rises.
This works until you hit a saturation point in the market, everyone has a TV, then you switch from expansion to maintaining and without demand there is no pressure on wages

Then Japan copies the American play book and all of a sudden people in the US can have their wages and buy cheap stuff from overseas. Then Japan hits saturation point in the middle class, then Taiwan, then Korea, then China, all building their middle class off the spending power of the USA.

Now there's no more puff in the engine, no system without external energy can continue. This is what we have now, wages in the US flow offshore, there isn't demand, there isn't great profit, where will the money come from?

A famous politician here about 20 years ago decried that Australian was going to end up a nation of people serving each other coffee... And that's pretty much all we are now.

Not only was the middle class manufactured, but along with that came the idea owning a home and the American Dream were synonymous.

The majority of the country rented until the 20th century.

The difference then - and one of the biggest issues I have with modern cities - is the pursuit of home ownership created suburbs, which meant living away from the rest of society (shops, work, food, etc), which in turn created a car-centric society.

That spiraled into NIMBY’s, the erosion of cities and the overall dwelling shortage.

It’s all tied together.

I agree with you, the bankers invented the white picket fence and floated the dollar. This lead to the golden age of consumerism where Americans never had so much because they'd never spent so much.

I have a lot of exposure to China at the moment and they're struggling with a similar issue. Everytime a country follows the same play book and creates a middle class it's an cycle that will end, and before it does you need to be able to shift your economy to a high skill one to sustain the middle class. Japan, Korea and Taiwan did an excellent job of this, the USA did a terrible job and instead put up protectionist barriers to free trade that allowed their products to become substandard and their work ethic to become lazy. It meant that when the other countries got good enough they could pay the tariffs and still have exceptional products and the death of US manufacturing begun.

Everyone seems to want to be paid exceptionally and perform only adequately. Nobody has ever been able to articulate why each generation should expect to do better than the one before it... Without committing themselves to being better.