AFC East

Buffalo Bills

2023 was always going to be a difficult one for the Bills - framed as a "Super Bowl or bust" season - they scuffed their way through the middle of the schedule before improving down the stretch only to again fall frustratingly short against the Chiefs in the Divisional Round. 

Perhaps this season, now only equal fourth favourite for the Lombardi, ends up a little bit like the 2022 Chiefs. Their roster shares some similarities to that team too, as they move away from a WR1 to a committee approach. Stefon Diggs was already being phased out of the offence down the stretch, but with him and Gabe Davis moved on they are now looking at Khalil Shakir, Curtis Samuel (who OC Joe Brady knows from Carolina) and first round draft pick Keon Coleman as their top three receivers. Veterans MVS and KJ Hamler haven't had a good training camp/preseason and might not make the 53. Continuing the Chiefs theme, the WR1 might well end up being TE Dalton Kincaid - becoming more of a big play threat will be key here as he averaged less than 10 yards per reception in his rookie season.

Defensively they have also moved on from some cornerstones of the McDermott era. Safety duo Poyer and Hyde are gone, as is Tre White, and Matt Milano is already lost to injury. I think the key here is clearly Von Miller, who is running with the trope of "never being healthy" last season. If he is able to return to being a true difference maker (and at 35 this is a real if) then it will be a huge boost to the pass rush rotation along with Epenesa and Rousseau, who did come along last season in Miller's absence. DaQuan Jones is also back from injury and will lineup next to Ed Oliver in the middle, who actually led the team in sacks. 

Miami Dolphins

So the key for Miami has to be getting a home playoff game, right? They looked unstoppable through the first few months on the season, but came undone after Tyreek Hill was slowed by injury, and were eliminated without much of a fight in the icy weather of Kansas City.

Their offence will be explosive again, Tua, Tyreek and Waddle will feast in Mike McDonald's passing game, we'll probably see DeVon Achane start to take a larger share of the backfield from Raheem Mostert (who's old for an RB) and maybe a little bit of yet another blazing speed back Jaylen Wright. The only question mark is with the offensive line, Terron Armstead is always fighting through injuries and is likely in his final season, and former starters Robert Hunt and Connor Williams have both left and their replacements are questionable. 

The defence will change quite a lot with new DC Anthony Weaver, formerly of the Ravens, bringing a more flexible approach than Vic Fangio. Expect to see Jalen Ramsey featured as the star defender, moving around the field rather than . The pass rush has a high ceiling and a low floor with Chubb and Phillips both returning from serious injuries, backed up by first round draft pick Chop Robinson. They added a couple of solid, unheralded veterans in free agency too, Kendall Fuller replacing Xavien Howard at corner, and Jordyn Brooks replacing Jerome Baker at linebacker. 

New York Jets

We're pretty much acting like 2023 didn't happen for the Jets, as they enter this season with basically the same outlook as this time 12 months ago. The only difference is a little bit more doubt as to whether Aaron Rodgers can actually be the guy who puts them back in the playoffs for the first time since 2010. At least, they have a legitimate backup QB this time.

To support their 41 year old signal caller coming off a torn Achilles, they've added a lot of other veterans to the offence. Protecting Rodgers was always going to be a problem last season, even if he didn't go down four snaps in, and if he's less mobile now, they'll need new tackle acquisitions Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses to stay healthy and play at the level they both have shown over their long careers. If one does happen to get injured, first round draft pick Olu Fashanu will be thrown into the fire. #2 wide receiver was always going to be an issue last season, so Mike Williams (again, if he can stay healthy) represents a big upgrade over Allen Lazard. 

The defence is great, and impressively kept the team afloat while the offence imploded last season. They're fantastic at all three levels, with the only real doubt being whether last years first round pick Will McDonald can step up, especially if Haason Reddick continues his hold out. Quinnen Williams is awesome, Sauce Gardner is awesome - this unit will be top-5 again this season. 

New England Patriots

I posted a little while ago that the Patriots would be my favourite to pick #1 in the next draft, and I think I'm sticking with that. They remain the last team that doesn't have an obvious starting QB for week 1, and whoever it is will be throwing to the worst looking receiving group in the league. This season is all about rebooting in the post-Belichick era and hopefully finding some pieces for the future.

Offensively it's about whether rookies Polk or Baker can show something, and particularly if there's chemistry with Drake Maye when he does enter the lineup. Because the passing game will be so limited, there will be a big reliance on talented RB Rhamondre Stevenson running the ball, recently rewarded with a sizeable contract despite coming off an underwhelming 2023. 

Defensively they are solid, and mostly settled with the majority of starters and coaching staff returning. They get Christian Gonzalez back at corner who looked promising early in his rookie season before suffering a serious injury, and Christian Barmore is primed to go to the next level if he's not held back by this blood clot issue. Moving Matt Judon to Atlanta made sense for a team that won't be contending for a couple of seasons, but it does leave them very thin at pass rusher.

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So I've got the Bills winning the division again with Miami sneaking in for a wildcard despite another late season fade (especially with those opponents). The Jets have hope for a few more weeks than they did last season before the injury bug bites (and Saleh and Joe D end up getting the boot), and the Patriots are largely irrelevant and get the #1 pick.

NFC East

Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles completely fell apart at the end of the season in their attempt to defend as NFC Champions, with the losses of coordinators Shane Steichen and Jonathan Gannon thoroughly felt amidst team disharmony and frustrating scheming. Nick Sirianni has surprisingly retained his job but is certainly on a very short leash heading into a campaign which seems likely to go one of two ways.

Offensively it's a big season for Jalen Hurts. His incredible performance in the Super Bowl seemed to announce a new superstar, but the following season was a disappointment with an increase in turnovers and an injury apparently hampering his athleticism. Paired with new OC Kellen Moore this might be the year that Hurts really ascends into that top-5 QB conversation. The big offseason addition was Saquon Barkley, who represents a significant upgrade in the backfield from the middling guys the Eagles have had running the ball in recent years. The big departure is obviously future HOFer Jason Kelce, but if there's any group that can weather a retirement like that it is the Eagles o-line who still have three elite starters in Mailata, Johnson and Dickerson. 

Although the offence didn't quite sparkle, it was the Eagles defence that was the real problem last season, particularly defending the pass. The sack numbers dropped off a cliff and the secondary was a disaster zone. Enter Vic Fangio, the grandfather of the two-high safety defence designed to limit the modern passing offence. The offseason moves were all about sorting out these issues. They resigned CJGJ after one year away in Detroit, and they used their early draft picks on Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean., the latter has been injured for the majority of camp so will probably have an easing in period. Philly will be hoping for resurgences from their veterans, James Bradberry (now moved to safety) and Darius Slay were both poor, while Nakobe Dean hasn't yet delivered on the idea that he was a draft day steal. He'll be paired with new acquisition Devin White, who was generally a terrible bust for Tampa despite being a 5 year starter. 

Dallas Cowboys

Has a team in a Super Bowl window ever had a less inspiring offseason than the Cowboys? Jerry Jones version of going "all in" was Eric Kendricks and bringing back Zeke. Of course, they have salary cap issues brought about by signing their big stars. Wait, they haven't signed their big stars?!

There was much scepticism this time 12 months ago (including by me) about Mike McCarthy taking over playcalling. It went perfectly well, with Dak Prescott finishing as MVP runner up and CeeDee Lamb racking up an absurd 135/1750. Those two will have to be at their best again for what looms as their final season together given the rest of the cast, particularly the complete void at running back following Tony Pollard's departure to Tennessee. Jalen Tolbert might be someone who can emerge, he's won the WR3 position and I wonder if Brandin Cooks starts to slow down now aged 30. 

Dan Quinn did a great job with the Dallas defence over three seasons, and is now replaced by another very familiar face and former head coach Mike Zimmer. They still have one of the leagues best EDGE combinations with superstar Micah Parsons and super underrated DeMarcus Lawrence. The weakness last season was often run defence, and as a result they will be hoping for a second year glow up from Mazi Smith who made no impact as a rookie. The aforementioned linebacker Kendricks is familar to Zimmer from their time together in Minnesota. The secondary will be boosted by the return of Trevon Diggs after his early season ACL tear, and he will pair the corners with Daron Bland, he of the pick six. 

Kicker Brandon Aubrey made preseason headlines this week - could he be the first to make a 70 yard field goal?

New York Giants

In isolation the Daboll/Schoen era has made a lot of good decisions, but entering year 3 there are still a lot of holes and issues that are the result of trying to shortcut a rebuild. 

2024 is the last stand for Daniel Jones. His second half run in '22 including a playoff win had people believing Daboll had struck again as a quarterback whisperer, and he was rewarded with a sizeable contract. But then he started badly in '23 before having his season prematurely ended by injury. His return this week in preseason was disastrous and already has Giants fans concerned. Beyond him, the offence will now no longer run through Saquon, and instead through apparent rookie sensation Malik Nabers. Nabers already seems like the best receiver Jones has ever played with, immediately passing the eye test. The only question is whether the offence can be functional enough to be able to get him the ball. Devin Singletary replaces Barkley as a decent back with familiarity with the coaching staff, while WanDale Robinson will be hoping to build on a relatively successful first full season as the WR2. They've added a few veterans on the offensive line which will hopefully raise that group up from incredibly poor. 

The big moves occurred on the defence, Wink Martindale paid the price for his turbulent relationship with Daboll and is replaced as DC by Shane Bowen from the Titans. He'll have newly acquired pass rusher Brian Burns at his disposal, set to really become recognised nationally after being buried on the Panthers. The defensive line has the potential to be very good, also featuring Kayvon Thibedeaux coming off 11.5 sacks and elite DT Dexter Lawrence. The Giants need them to be great considering the back half of the defence is really just a lot of guys. Xavier McKinney, the only reliable starter in the secondary is gone, so there's pressure on Deonte Banks to improve on a solid rookie season and become a plus outside corner. 

Washington Commanders

It's a complete reboot in Washington with a new owner, coach, QB and GM. They don't yet have the roster to compete, but at least there is hope now and they are no longer going through the motions.

Offensively it's all about seeing what Jayden Daniels can do. Detractors of his #2 draft selection believe he was inflated by his supporting cast at LSU (Joe Burrow's turned out alright) and whether he is setup to succeed with OC Kliff Kingsbury, who ultimately underwhelmed with Kyler Murray in Arizona, and then coordinated a year with Caleb Williams at USC that was noticeably inferior to his prior Heisman winning season. Daniels, who was the Heisman winner last season, doesn't have a particularly exciting group around him, but does have super reliable Terry McLaurin, who has taken over from Allen Robinson as the WR capable of producing regardless of quarterback. Like the Giants, they signed a few veteran offensive linemen to hopefully improve a truly awful group from last season.

It's all change on the defence, Dan Quinn has brought his staff from Dallas over, as well as edge rushers Dorance Armstrong and Dante Fowler. They've also added the ageless Bobby Wagner, and Frankie Luvu and Jeremy Chinn from Carolina. Mike Sainristil was a popular choice for best pick of the draft, and appears to be delivering on that in preseason, a welcome sign for a secondary that's generally lacking talent.

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I don't feel particularly good about any of these teams, so I'm picking the Eagles to winning the division but with no more than 10 wins. Dallas fall back to .500, while the Giants and Commanders continue to struggle.

I don't think Dallas can go .500, unless they sneak in a tie or something.

AFC South

Houston Texans

The Texans showed how quickly a franchise can turn around if you pick the right coach and quarterback, going from last to first. But now that the expectations are much higher, can they back it up in the face of a very tough schedule?

CJ Stroud dismissed any idea that he wasn't cut out to be an NFL starter on his way to winning OROY. He showed great chemistry with young receivers Tank Dell and Nico Collins, and this season will have an additional two big name weapons to work with, Stefon Diggs in a prove it year after a underwhelming final season in Buffalo, and reliable running back Joe Mixon. Mixon will be tasked with improving a running game that averaged a poor 3.7 yards per carry last season, along with the hope of better offensive line play as a result of less injuries and more experience in Bobby Slowik's zone scheme. Judging by preseason, Cam Akers might be the RB2 over Dameon Pierce. 

Playing against seven teams that made the playoffs last season is going to be tough sledding for the defence, which is why Nick Caserio has made a lot of additions on that side of the ball. Danielle Hunter (coming off a huge 16.5 sack season) and Denico Autry fortify the pass rush alongside DROY Will Anderson. Azeez Al-Shaair (one of my favourite players) joins from division rival Tennessee replacing Blake Cashman who thrived under DeMeco Ryans' tutelage. In the secondary they've added two players who haven't lived up to their draft status in Jeff Okudah and CJ Henderson, but they along with rookie Kamari Lassiter have all missed time with preseason injuries - so the battle to be the starter alongside Derek Stingley is wide open. They are deeper at safety instead, which is why Jalen Pitre has been playing some linebacker, while rookie Calen Bullock has worked his way into playing with the first team.

Indianapolis Colts

While the Colts managed to stay relevant right up to the end of the regular season, it was inevitably a lost campaign for them because of Anthony Richardson's injury. He only played four games but flashed truly dynamic playmaking ability that gives him the potential to be one of the most exciting players in the league, but he needs to take some lessons from Lamar Jackson at how to avoid contact in order to stay on the field. If he can't, they now have reigning comeback player of the year Joe Flacco as their backup.

The Indy offence is pretty consistent, Jonathan Taylor is primed to return to the elite level of running backs after having his 2023 disrupted by a holdout, and he'll run behind an o-line that is still strong with veterans Quenton Nelson and Ryan Kelly still chugging along. Adonai Mitchell, a speedy receiver out of Texas, is the big addition and the hope that he is able to be a legitimate #2 option to lessen the reliance on Michael Pittman. That would see Josh Downs and Alec Pierce settle into the 3/4 roles which probably suit them.

GM Chris Ballard made sure to keep his defence together too, with 5 key starters (Buckner, Stewart, Franklin, Moore and Blackmon) all receiving contract extensions this offseason. Again the big addition here was via the draft, Laiatu Latu was considered by many to be the best pure pass rusher in the class, and he looks like a great fit alongside the rest of the d-line which is big and strong against the run. 

Tennessee Titans

The Titans have taken the completely opposite approach to the Colts in order to get back into the playoffs. They made a fairly surprisingly decision to move on from Mike Vrabel, as well as long time franchise posterboy Derrick Henry. New HC Brian Callahan looks to bring a fresher approach to the offence, and bringing along his dad, one of the leagues best offensive line coaches, is going to be key to that. 

They've put the pieces in place to be able to decide whether Will Levis is the guy or not. They signed the best FA receiver available in Calvin Ridley (poaching him away from a division rival in the process) and he'll make a solid 1-2 combination with DeAndre Hopkins. They also have a new, reliable WR3 in Tyler Boyd (who worked with Callahan Jr in Cincinatti), relegating possible draft bust Treylon Burks down the depth chart. But the biggest upgrade will come with Brian Callahan's offensive line coaching, improving the league's worst unit from the last couple of seasons. They used their first round draft pick to add JC Latham to play left tackle, and brought Lloyd Cushenberry in FA to play center. Running behind them will be the dynamic duo of Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears, so there might be a lot of receptions to running backs in this offence. 

Defensively, they made a big splash trading for L'Jarius Sneed - one of the league's best press coverage cornerbacks. Despite his reputation, Vrabel's defence actually wasn't that tough, and that's something that new DC Dennard Wilson has emphasised when talking to the media. Up front they'll be hoping for a better season from star DT Jeffrey Simmons, who's now joined by the giant T'Vondre Sweat to clog the middle. Pass rush looks like it will be an issue, with Autry moving to the Texans. 

Jacksonville Jaguars

18 months ago it looked like Jacksonville would dominate this division for the next few seasons, they had their franchise quarterback and an offence rapidly gaining steam. But 2023 was a real disappointment, and since then they've seen all their rivals also find difference making QBs. 

Calvin Ridley was supposed to be the piece to put the offence over the top into truly elite territory - and while led the team in touchdowns, the connection with Trevor Lawrence never quite found it's footing. So after one season he is gone, replaced by Gabe Davis from Buffalo. Christian Kirk was once mocked for being overpaid, but his importance to the team was palpable when the offence when in the tank once he was injured finishing the season 1-5. The big issue was turnovers, Lawrence led the league with 21, and that was partly down to poor protection. Mitch Morse, also from Buffalo, is the major addition up front. 

Defensively the main change is the new coaching staff, new DC Ryan Nielsen and secondary coach Kris Richard, previously worked together in New Orleans. Like the Titans, their focus is press coverage, but the advantage here is their pass rushers Joshua Hines-Allen and Travon Walker who combined for 27.5 sacks last season. They've also added strong DT veteran Arik Armstead to the defensive front. Attempting to provide that more aggressive coverage in the secondary is Tyson Campbell, who the team rewarded with a big contract this offseason, despite being hampered with injury through most of 2023, and newly added veteran Ronald Darby. 

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For a few years this was the league's weakest division, but it now looks like one of it's most competitive. I'm going to predict a bit of an upset here and go with the Colts to win the division with Houston getting a wildcard by virtue of their tough schedule. I also think the Titans are going to be better than most people think, and they beat the Jaguars into the cellar leading to a bit of a reboot in Jacksonville. 

NFC South

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Outside of the Chiefs, which team has the longest reign atop their division? That's right, it's the Bucs who have won the South three straight seasons. They defied expectations last season after Tom Brady's retirement, winning a playoff game and putting up a respectable fight against the Lions in the Divisional round.

Personnel wise, things are going to look much the same after they decided to re-up with all their major free agents. Baker Mayfield was reborn last season, but he does have to do it under a new OC following Dave Canales appointment as Panthers HC. His targets remain the same, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin on the outside, and Cade Otton at tight end. Raachad White's counting stats improved in his second season with over 1500 yards from scrimmage, but efficiency still isn't there, averaging just 3.6 yards per carry, so we might see rookie Bucky Irving work his way into the mix.

The big names on defence also resigned - Antoine Winfield had a phenomenal season and Lavonte David is still chugging along at 34. Jamel Dean and Jordan Whitehead are solid alongside Winfield in the secondary, but they did lose Carlton Davis to the Lions. It's the pass rush that looks more concerning, Shaq Barrett is gone and his "replacement" Randy Gregory decided not to show up to camp. They didn't pick up the fifth year option for former first round pick Joe Tryon-Shoyinka, so unless he unexpectedly improves, rookie Chris Braswell might see plenty of playing time alongside their sack leader from last season Yaya Diaby.

Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons were obviously held back by their quarterback last season, and as a result they took the unusual route of addressing it both in free agency and the draft acquiring Kirk Cousins and then selecting Michael Penix in April. Cousins begins as the QB1 but coming off an Achilles injury it's reasonable to be suspicious of whether he can reclaim the form that he showed prior to the injury last season, and he's never actually been the consistent performer that many believe him to be.

Whoever plays the majority of the season has plenty of weapons to work with. Such was the expectations on Bijan Robinson coming out that over 1000 yards from scrimmage and 8 touchdowns was seen as a big disappointment, but with Arthur Smith out of the picture, all signs to Bijan claiming a greater share of the touches with Tyler Allegier fading into a true backup role. Drake London has been a solid performer who also might see his stats go to the next level in a more open offence, while Kyle Pitts named himself a "super rookie" but some of his tape from the last two seasons suggests some concerns that he might never be the player anticipated and it wasn't all about the quarterbacking or system.

It seemed like they realised during camp that their defence needed reinforcing, leading to two recent moves - trading for Matt Judon and signing veteran safety Justin Simmons. Simmons probably isn't the same player he was a couple of seasons ago, but it was still a surprise that he stayed available this long, while Judon replaces Calais Campbell as the veteran pass rusher next to reliable tackles David Onyemata and franchise stalwart Grady Jarrett. AJ Terrell is the star in the secondary and signed a big time extension today.

New Orleans Saints

We've said it quite a bit on PW, but there isn't a more directionless or irrelevant team in the NFL than the Saints. A lame head coach, a quarterback who doesn't move the needle, I almost don't want to spend time typing a summary for them because they just annoy me.

Offensively they have made a minor concession by hiring Klint Kubiak to run a Shanahan style offence in the hopes it will get a little bit more out of Derek Carr. A zone running scheme might make a difference in the running game which was completely inexplosive last season, failing to get a 20+ yard play from any of it's RBs. The offensive line will be the big hurdle, Ryan Ramczyk isn't coming back to save the day, Trevor Penning looks like a bust, so they'll be instantly relying on first-rounder Taliese Fuaga to start at left tackle.

Defensively they've been above average for a while now, but their stars are getting older, and possibly were being propped up last season by some areas that are unsustainable like turnovers and third down percentage. They were near the bottom of the league in sacks, so have added Chase Young to veteran Cameron Jordan. Young has had an OK career so far but didn't live up to his draft position for Washington, nor make much impact in his rental role for the 49ers. Kool-Aid McKinstry is the major rookie addition, to the solid secondary, although he is nursing a knee injury.

Carolina Panthers

The Saints might have been the most boring team in the league recently, but the Panthers are obviously the worst. This season is all about hopefully seeing an improvement from Bryce Young after he was overwhelmed in his rookie season. Dave Canales has a track record of rescuing quarterbacks, the aforementioned Mayfield last season, and prior to that the resurrection of Geno Smith in Seattle.

More reason for optimism is that Young's supporting cast is a lot better this time. His numbers when targeting his only real weapon last season, Adam Thielen, were actually decent, and now he has pristine route runner Diontae Johnson as an additional outlet. Miles Sanders was a flop, losing the starting job to Chuba Hubbard, and he will slip further down the depth chart when Jonathon Brooks can join the mix although probably not until October at the earliest. They invested heavily in the offensive line with two big guard signings; Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis that will hopefully give Bryce some more time in the pocket.

Canales retained incumbent DC Ejiro Evero, who will be working with two main changes to his unit. Brian Burns is gone, replaced by a combination of DEs who played collegiately in Carolina - Jadeveon Clowey and DJ Wonnum. And at linebacker they lose Frankie Luvu, replacing him with Josey Jewell from Denver, as well as getting Shaq Thompson back from injury. Speaking of injuries, they need cornerback Jaycee Horn to stay healthy, he's been great when on the field but can't seem to stay on it.

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You'd think this is Atlanta's division for the taking now that they presumably have a QB that's the right side of the Dalton line. I think Tampa slip back slightly without Canales, New Orleans remain incredibly mediocre, and Carolina get a little better but still pick in the top-5 of the draft. 

Atlanta seems like the safest bet but if I were to bet this division I’d take the Panthers only because they have a punchers chance to get to 8 or 9 wins which might be good enough. I subscribe to a theory that one of the biggest jumps a bad team can make is going from bad to average on the line.

It might be fraudulent and smoke and mirrors but none of the other money makes sense so might as well take the long shot for a big payout with no prohibitive favorite.

Aug 23, 2024 1:15:39 GMT UT said:

Atlanta seems like the safest bet but if I were to bet this division I’d take the Panthers only because they have a punchers chance to get to 8 or 9 wins which might be good enough. I subscribe to a theory that one of the biggest jumps a bad team can make is going from bad to average on the line.

It might be fraudulent and smoke and mirrors but none of the other money makes sense so might as well take the long shot for a big payout with no prohibitive favorite.

At around $11 in a weak division I'd agree they're worth a flier. The comparison I can think of is the 2022 Jags who went worst to first. #1 overall QB in their second season, replacing a bad fit HC with a coach who has proven himself with a variety of different QBs, adding functional receivers to the roster, splashing the cash on a legit guard (two in Carolina's case!) and benefitting from (as you said) 9 wins potentially being enough to win the division.

I have a sinking feeling that the Steelers might remain the Iowa Hawkeyes of the NFL & man that is depressing.

Aug 23, 2024 1:48:42 GMT @admin said:

Aug 23, 2024 1:15:39 GMT UT said:

Atlanta seems like the safest bet but if I were to bet this division I’d take the Panthers only because they have a punchers chance to get to 8 or 9 wins which might be good enough. I subscribe to a theory that one of the biggest jumps a bad team can make is going from bad to average on the line.

It might be fraudulent and smoke and mirrors but none of the other money makes sense so might as well take the long shot for a big payout with no prohibitive favorite.

At around $11 in a weak division I'd agree they're worth a flier. The comparison I can think of is the 2022 Jags who went worst to first. #1 overall QB in their second season, replacing a bad fit HC with a coach who has proven himself with a variety of different QBs, adding functional receivers to the roster, splashing the cash on a legit guard (two in Carolina's case!) and benefitting from (as you said) 9 wins potentially being enough to win the division.

Well now you’re just plain talking me into it. Going from incompetent coaching to even competent can’t be another huge jump.

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens

Initial returns on the "Lamar Jackson in a modern day offence" experiment was a huge success. He proved the sceptics of his passing ability completely wrong, racking up career highs en route to winning his second MVP award. He did, however, once again come up rather short in the playoffs. Could the second season in Todd Monken's system be the charm? Despite playing in the league's hardest division, you can pretty much pencil the Ravens in to make the playoffs, the only season they haven't made it during Jackson's career was when he was injured with 5 games remaining and they lost out. But like a couple of teams, this season is all about getting over the hump.

The marquee move to help him achieve it is the addition of Derrick Henry. The best running back in football over the past 5 seasons, Henry has plenty of wear and tear but is still producing at a very high level. He'll benefit from rushing behind a far better offensive line than he has had in Tennessee recently, but it is a unit that will feature three new starters alongside anchor Tyler Linderbaum, set to claim the title of best Center in the league post-Jason Kelce. Lamar's receiving weapons stay steady, with Mark Andrews returning after his hugely impactful late season injury. There's room for improvement from Zay Flowers who had a promising rookie season.

The offence will need to be good to compensate for the inevitability that the defence will come back to the pack somewhat after becoming the first unit in history to lead the league in points allowed, sacks and takeaways. Unsurprisingly with all that success, coaches and players alike were poached en masse. But new DC Zach Orr still has plenty of talent at his disposal. Trading for Roquan Smith was a masterstroke, as was drafting Kyle Hamilton when other teams were galaxy braining it. Baltimore always seems to struggle with injuries in the secondary, so using this year's first rounder on Nate Wiggins seemed very logical.

Pittsburgh Steelers

This is yet another very Pittsburgh-y looking team. They've been very mediocre for a while now, a great coach and pass rush wasted with back quarterback play behind a bad offensive line. The personnel is a little bit different this time, but has anything really changed?

Who would have thought that over drafting a quarterback just because he played collegiately in your stadium wouldn't work out? Anyway, Kenny Pickett is gone and in his place is washed Russell Wilson, carried to statistical decency by Sean Payton last season, a far superior offensive mind than Arthur Smith. Because Wilson's not very good anymore, it's highly likely we'll see Justin Fields at some point, and although he isn't great at quarterback either, at least he will provide some highlights. Around these two, they've drafted a lot of pieces to try and improve the offence. The first two picks were offensive linemen to try and improve a running game which is supposed to be their identity but hasn't been particularly successful, and then the third was spent on Roman Wilson to be the second receiver behind talented but enigmatic George Pickens.

But for the Steelers it starts and ends with TJ Watt who is the most impactful defensive player in the league, a truly gamewrecking force who always finds a way to make big plays at the biggest times. Alex Highsmith is a great #2 edge, and Nick Herbig would more that satisfy that role on a lot of other teams. The main addition was bringing Patrick Queen over from Baltimore, coming off by far his best season as a pro - time will tell if that was down to Mike MacDonald and Roquan Smith or not.

Cincinnati Bengals

Although Zach Taylor deserves credit for coaching the 2023 Bengals to a winning record, it was ultimately a lost season with Joe Burrow's dual injuries. As a result, the stakes are really raised for what appears to be the final season that Burrow will have both Chase and Higgins to throw to.

Cinci have been trying to improve the offensive line in front of Burrow ever since he entered the league, and this offseason was no different with the acquisition of two tackles in veteran Trent Brown and enormous rookie Amarius Mims. They'll block for a new running back for the first time in a long time, Zach Moss replacing Joe Mixon. But obviously it's all about the passing attack, with Burrow back Chase is poised to have a , while Higgins will be motivated to put himself in the shop window for his future employer.

The defence is super settled, returning the majority of starters including leading EDGE Trey Hendrickson who had the worst trade request of all time. The changes are Sheldon Rankins in for DJ Reader at defensive tackle, and Geno Stone for Nick Scott at safety. Vonn Bell also returns after a season away, emphasising the familiarity under the league's longest tenured DC Lou Anarumo.

Cleveland Browns

There's always a few teams that are "only a quarterback away" but there wouldn't have been many that fit that better than the current Cleveland Browns. There's a recent that 39 year old Joe Flacco came off his coach in late November and instantly had the Dawg Pound believing. Unfortunately for them, the franchise decided to tie themselves financially to a disgustingly unapologetic sexual abuser who in a true act of karma, is apparently no longer good at playing football.

Cleveland's offence looks very strong, albeit with injury concerns. They should regain the services of star running back Nick Chubb at some point in the season, but Jerome Ford did an adequate job filling in for him last year. More worrying is the presence of both starting tackles still on the PUP list, but intact the line is one of the league's best. Amari Cooper is still a really solid WR1, David Njoku absolutely thrived with Flacco throwing him the ball, and Jerry Jeudy was worth a flier to see if a change of team could possibly unlock his so far unfulfilled potential.

Jim Schwartz was the coordinator of the year for good reason, his aggressive scheme was the perfect fit for this group of players and led to the best three and out percentage of any defence for nearly 20 years. They're led by DPOY Myles Garrett and #2 EDGE Za'Darius Smith, while Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah announced his arrival last season as one of the most exciting sideline to sideline linebackers around. With the active front, they're able to play man coverage on the back end with talented corners Ward, Emerson and Newsome.

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I'm struggling to pick between Baltimore and Cincinnati for who wins the division, but both will make the playoffs. Pittsburgh scrub their way to 9-8 because Mike Tomlin always finishes over .500, while the Browns drop back to last place because of a slightly less impactful defence. 

I’m taking the Bengals. I’m not in love with the Ravens line and while I think they make the WC … if the Bengals stay healthy I think they have the better QB and team.

Also can we stop calling Tomlin a great HC at this point?

He hasn’t won a playoff game in 8 years and is 3-8 since 2010 for a whopping .27 win pct since then.

Aug 26, 2024 14:16:20 GMT UT said:

Also can we stop calling Tomlin a great HC at this point?

He hasn’t won a playoff game in 8 years and is 3-8 since 2010 for a whopping .27 win pct since then.

No I'm not having this at all, this is just like when you tried to say that Sean Payton isn't good. No coaches would win playoff games with the husk of Ben Roethlisberger, Mason Rudolph and Kenny Pickett at quarterback. 

Aug 26, 2024 22:34:31 GMT @admin said:

Aug 26, 2024 14:16:20 GMT UT said:

Also can we stop calling Tomlin a great HC at this point?

He hasn’t won a playoff game in 8 years and is 3-8 since 2010 for a whopping .27 win pct since then.

No I'm not having this at all, this is just like when you tried to say that Sean Payton isn't good. No coaches would win playoff games with the husk of Ben Roethlisberger, Mason Rudolph and Kenny Pickett at quarterback. 

I’m not saying he sucks, but you can’t blame the entire last decade on that. And even with that you could question his ability to have a better quarterback plan in place which he is doubling down on this year by going with Wilson.

The word great is thrown around too much. Tomlin is a good coach and a very consistent coach but “great” should be reserved for coaches without a decade worth of playoff futility. He’s also lost again Baker Mayfield, Tim Tebow and Blake Bortles in the run.



It’s not a lot different than LaFleur who at this point I think is an excellent offensive mind and has made huge strides in getting better but while I do think he’s a good head coach he isn’t great either as of now.

Tomlin dropped the ball with Canada terribly and his inability to find a remotely competent offensive line coach has been evident.

Just like LaFleur and Barry.

Also Sean Payton does suck. And that wasn’t nearly as much as my point as the nut hugging he gets by the same people who shit in McCarthy (whom I also detest).

Aug 27, 2024 1:59:20 GMT UT said:

I’m not saying he sucks, but you can’t blame the entire last decade on that. And even with that you could question his ability to have a better quarterback plan in place which he is doubling down on this year by going with Wilson.

The word great is thrown around too much. Tomlin is a good coach and a very consistent coach but “great” should be reserved for coaches without a decade worth of playoff futility. He’s also lost again Baker Mayfield, Tim Tebow and Blake Bortles in the run.

It’s not a lot different than LaFleur who at this point I think is an excellent offensive mind and has made huge strides in getting better but while I do think he’s a good head coach he isn’t great either as of now.

Tomlin dropped the ball with Canada terribly and his inability to find a remotely competent offensive line coach has been evident.

Just like LaFleur and Barry.

He will be top 10 all-time in wins with a Super Bowl trophy - that's a great coach. Brady and Belichick and now Reid and Mahomes have skewed people's views on playoff success - it's really hard to win playoff games!

Bad assistant hires are a reasonable criticism, he does have a bad track record there. I think he suffers from the same issue that Belichick had where he favours in house guys who fit the team culture rather than outsiders who would bring a fresher approach. But let's not act like being good at identifying assistants is a silver bullet for playoff "success" either, just look at his rival John Harbaugh who has always been fantastic in that department.

Aug 27, 2024 2:46:33 GMT @admin said:

Aug 27, 2024 1:59:20 GMT UT said:

I’m not saying he sucks, but you can’t blame the entire last decade on that. And even with that you could question his ability to have a better quarterback plan in place which he is doubling down on this year by going with Wilson.

The word great is thrown around too much. Tomlin is a good coach and a very consistent coach but “great” should be reserved for coaches without a decade worth of playoff futility. He’s also lost again Baker Mayfield, Tim Tebow and Blake Bortles in the run.

It’s not a lot different than LaFleur who at this point I think is an excellent offensive mind and has made huge strides in getting better but while I do think he’s a good head coach he isn’t great either as of now.

Tomlin dropped the ball with Canada terribly and his inability to find a remotely competent offensive line coach has been evident.

Just like LaFleur and Barry.

He will be top 10 all-time in wins with a Super Bowl trophy - that's a great coach. Brady and Belichick and now Reid and Mahomes have skewed people's views on playoff success - it's really hard to win playoff games!

Bad assistant hires are a reasonable criticism, he does have a bad track record there. I think he suffers from the same issue that Belichick had where he favours in house guys who fit the team culture rather than outsiders who would bring a fresher approach. But let's not act like being good at identifying assistants is a silver bullet for playoff "success" either, just look at his rival John Harbaugh who has always been fantastic in that department.

That’s a longevity thing as much as anything, similar to Gore as a running back. Heck of a career but sticking around and being good can certainly obtain those numbers.

And all the blame placed on his quarterbacks for his lack of playoff success is interesting considering in that time span his defenses have allowed 34.5 PPG in the playoff losses (again to the lies of Baker , Tebow and Bortles.)

Tomlin is a likable character and solid coach and would be a great hire for a franchise that has been terrible for a long time but he’s turned into Jeff Fisher for the last ten years and gets no criticism for it.

I feel like Tomlin is stuck on the mediocrity treadmill, too bad to win playoff games, too good to get a top flight QB in the draft. I don’t really know the front office there, does he control it? Because I feel like they’ve made a poor choice on QB for the last few years of Roethlisberger to not prepare for the inevitable and for the years since Roethlisberger to commit to bad QB’s doesn’t make a ton of sense if you want to do more than go 9-8 and lose as a 7 seed.

I generally think his teams consistently outperform the expectation so I’m fine thinking of him as a good to great coach, but making a 6-10 roster into a 9-8 team isn’t setting the world on fire.

Wonder what would happen if he got a change of scenery. I don’t know if I think that Jeff Fisher is a good comp, but it does feel very post-Brady Belichickian to stick with your guns on coaching staff and poor QB play.

Fisher is an absurd comparison, he went 7 seasons without a winning record before being fired. Tomlin has made the playoffs four times in that period, including 12 and 10 win teams.

Fair on Fischer but let’s go back to the Dalton line of coaching with McCarthy whom has a similar winning % , a more recent Super Bowl win (against Tomlin) and has a better playoff record.

Aug 27, 2024 23:13:44 GMT UT said:

Fair on Fischer but let’s go back to the Dalton line of coaching with McCarthy whom has a similar winning % , a more recent Super Bowl win (against Tomlin) and has a better playoff record.

Mike McCarthy is definitely above the Dalton line. :dunno: As for how he compares to Tomlin - he's never had to coach without a top 10 quarterback.

I don’t think Tomlin gets enough deserved shit for not winning the AFC at least once with Ben/AB/Bell.

NFC North

Detroit Lions

Everyone loved seeing the Lions thrive last season, they were trash for so long, and Dan Campbell and Jared Goff are incredibly likeable. But now that they're no longer underdogs will they be able to back it up, and potentially go even further than the final four?

Their biggest win in the offseason was retaining OC Ben Johnson when it seemed likely he would leave for a HC job. In his system, Goff has thrived, rebuilding his career en route to a big new contract. Along with Johnson's scheme, a major reason for the offensive success is the o-line, the best in the league. Four starters return, and the one change is to bring in an incredibly reliable veteran who was also a pro bowler. Running behind this powerhouse unit RBs Montgomery and Gibbs became the first teammates to both have 1000 yards and 10 touchdowns in the same season. In the passing game Amon-Ra St Brown and Sam Laporta are fantastic primary targets for Goff, while Jameson Williams finally started to show what he could be in the NFC title game. Tim Patrick is also an interesting depth add.

While the offence is the same, Brad Holmes knew he had to improve his secondary so threw all the assets possible at it. He acquired two veterans Carlton Davis and Amik Robertson, and used his first two draft picks to add Terrion Arnold and Ennis Rakestraw Jr. So they join safeties Brian Branch, Kerby Joseph and Ifeatu Melifonwu to form a group that can only get better than the one that allowed a league most big plays last season. They also added up front, signing DJ Reader to stuff the run alongside surprise packet Alim McNeil, and hope that Marcus Davenport who has been injured too often can be the #2 alongside already elite Aiden Hutchinson.

Green Bay Packers

Green Bay did a fantastic job resetting in the post-Rodgers era, proving that if you have a good coach and GM you don't have to bottom out before contending again. With the league's youngest roster you'd expect them to keep getting better and make up for the late heartbreak that was their divisional round exit to the 49ers.

Jordan Love, for a long time a bit of a punching bag because of how he was drafted, exploded onto the scene as a starter with a particularly strong second half. He spread the ball around to a bevy of young receivers. The "no WR1" thing is slightly on the nose but they do realistically have five different players who could end up as their receiving leader at the end of the season. The major change is at running back where they have swapped Josh Jacobs for Aaron Jones. Jacobs has had a slightly strange career, he tends to alternate good seasons with underwhelming ones but is due after never really getting going following an early season hold out, and then a late season injury. With AJ Dillon already gone for the season they'll need him to be the workhorse he was for the Raiders in '22 when he led the league in rushing.

Packers fans have been wanting to see the back of long time DC Joe Barry for years, and they finally got their wish this offseason. He's replaced by former Jeff Hafley who projects to bring a more aggressive style to get the most out of the talent on the roster. The big acquisition in that department was FA splash Xavier McKinney to join the secondary, where they'll be hoping for former all-pro Jaire Alexander and former first-rounder Eric Stokes to stay healthy. They've invested a lot in defence, with other recent first round selections like Devonte Wyatt, Lukas Van Ness and Quay Walker Up front all still looking to fulfil their potential. Rashan Gary is a full season removed from his ACL tear, and as a result this might be the year when he's up with the league's sack leaders.

Chicago Bears

Never mind 2024 offseason champions, the Bears might have had one of the most hyped offseasons of the decade. It wasn't too long ago that Matt Eberflus the guy who Travis Kelce couldn't recognise, an apparent lame duck head coach with a poor roster. Now he's a quaffed zaddy who flipped his defence into a real difference maker and has talent galore on both sides of the ball.

Obviously it starts with Caleb Williams, who could instantly be the best quarterback Chicago has ever seen. Unlike most #1 overall picks, he has a great supporting cast to help him deliver on his repuation as one of the best QB prospects of the last decade. DJ Moore, acquired in the same trade as the Williams pick, is a superstar WR1. Keenan Allen is also coming off a 1200 yard season, Rome Odunze is a future star. Cole Kmet is a solid red zone target, and D'Andre Swift is a running back who can really explode some weeks. The offensive line is young and decent, and added Ryan Bates to fill a hole at center.

They made their big acquisition on defence midway through last season, trading for Montez Sweat, and his arrival almost instantly coincided with the aforementioned turnaround. Pass rush depth behind him does still look like an issue, but a recent trade for Darrell Taylor for just a fifth rounder seems like a steal. They spent big on linebacker in the previous offseason, and while that's never popular amongst the football cognoscenti.....both TJ Edwards and Tremaine Edmunds had good seasons. The strongest unit is the secondary, led by Jaylon Johnson PFFs highest ranked CB from last season.

Oh and if all that wasn't enough then they also joined the Aussie punter master race drafting Tory Taylor, the Ray Guy award winner out of Iowa.

Minnesota Vikings

I was a bit surprised to read that the Vikings have one of the most turned over rosters in the league, but given the state of this division they might have timed that quite well. Obviously their plans were heavily scuppered when JJ McCarthy was lost for the season which limits how intriguing they appear to be.

Of course that means that the surprisingly large portion of people who think that Sam Darnold still has potential as an NFL quarterback get their wish to see him as a clear starter. He won't get a better situation than this, with the best receiver in the league, strong complementary weapons, a upper tier left tackle, and a QB friendly coach. The receiving depth behind Jefferson and Addison does stand out as a issue, so they'll be hoping TJ Hockenson can return when first eligible in week 5. But the big area for improvement to compensate for an apparent downgrade in quarterback is for the running game to get better, which wouldn't be hard. Former division rival Aaron Jones was brought in to be the answer there, and represents a big talent improvement as long as he can stay healthy.

Brian Flores' reputation took a big hit recently in the wake of Tua's comments on his former coach, but he is undoubtedly a good coordinator. He'll be working with a significantly different group to the one he had in his first season with Minnesota. The edge rushers are new, Jonathan Greenard, Andrew Van Ginkel who he coached in Miami, and SEC DPOY Dallas Turner replace the productive Danielle Hunter and DJ Wonnum. They also bring in Blake Cashman who exploded in Houston last season after his early career was halted with injuries, and he'll pair with Ivan Pace at linebacker. And there's new faces in the cornerback room as well, Shaq Griffin and Khyree Jackson are interesting players with high ceilings but low floors, but they will definitely play considering the lack of depth. Harrison Smith still going strong in his 13th season(!), does provide a little bit of stability.

--

Tough division that looks like it could send three playoff teams. I believe in the reinforcements to Detroit's defence enough to see them defending, Packers stay good as well, while Chicago get the benefit of their fourth place schedule and scrap in for a wild card.

Giants signing Anthony Johnson Jr from the Packers cuts is great for you guys at @admin. He was quite the shock cut for me and Packer fans as he had such a great camp and preseason. He’s going to start for you guys down the road and make plays.

Aug 28, 2024 17:41:09 GMT UT said:

Giants signing Anthony Johnson Jr from the Packers cuts is great for you guys at @admin . He was quite the shock cut for me and Packer fans as he had such a great camp and preseason. He’s going to start for you guys down the road and make plays.

Nice one, we are a good landing spot because our DBs are pretty terrible. It sounds like he's a hybrid safety type so he's probably pushing Jason Pinnock for that starting job. 

Aug 28, 2024 23:39:36 GMT @admin said:

Aug 28, 2024 17:41:09 GMT UT said:

Giants signing Anthony Johnson Jr from the Packers cuts is great for you guys at @admin . He was quite the shock cut for me and Packer fans as he had such a great camp and preseason. He’s going to start for you guys down the road and make plays.

Nice one, we are a good landing spot because our DBs are pretty terrible. It sounds like he's a hybrid safety type so he's probably pushing Jason Pinnock for that starting job. 

Yeah I definitely see him getting time early. He was one of my favorites coming out last year as well and was stoked when we drafted him - still stunned we went with Special Teamer Zayne Anderson who offers nothing on defense over him. He was getting legit starting snaps. He’s just got the swagger you love too, I’ll be rooting for him.

Packers got Narverson from Tennessee so I’m looking forward to anyone not named Carlson or Joseph. Plus he nailed a 59 yarder in the preseason.

In former Packers I have no faith in , Royce Newman is with Tampa. Good riddance, never have I seen a player go from competent rookie who started on a really good line to one of the worst starters in the league in 2 years. That kind of decline is unheard of in young players.

Grant Dubose in Miami is fun. Rooting for him too. He’s got a ton of ability but needs to get stronger… he was just up against the deepest receiver room in the league.

Also the best thing about this Packers new defense is we actually have the players who make sense in it, more so than Barry’s.

Someone like Wyatt who was asked to hold the line since being drafted now gets to disrupt upfield which he was made for. Gary and LVN should have their hands in the dirt and Quay should be able to take on less blocks and roam and blitz more with his elite traits. And then you have Ja in the secondary who is best playing man. I also think our safeties went from the biggest weakness on the team to a strength with McKinney coming in and the two rookies.

The biggest question I have is CB2. Stokes has ability but consistency is an issue and health. I love Valentine who was made for this system and has the mentality.

Packers
Lions
Bears
Vikings

That’s the order. I genuinely think if healthy this Packer team can be a 1 seed. We just have to avoid the slow starts that has haunted us in the past.

I think the Bears are being stupidly overlooked. They’re going to be a top 3 defense in the NFL. I’m picking them to win the NFC North. Fuck it. Lions are too overhyped and I need one more year of Love to really believe it. I think the Falcons go on one of those random great NFC team in a bad division regular season team runs and finish atop the NFC, only to lose their first playoff game against the Dak Pack. Eagles beat SF and we get an NFC East NFC Championship where the Eagles beat the Cowboys to return to the Super Bowl.

Bold take; Nick Sirianni will not be the Head Coach all season and they’ll still win the NFC.

NFC:
1: Falcons
2: 49ers
3: Eagles
4: Bears
5: Cowboys
6: Lions
7: Rams


I personally think Mahomes wins MVP this season and BOLD TAKE, the Chiefs go undefeated. All while Xavier Worthy outperforms Keon Coleman and the Bills miss the playoffs. Bengals pull off the first ever 7 over 2 upset and beat Miami because of course we are getting Mahomes vs Burrow one more time. Chiefs beat the Jets in the AFC Championship because Aaron Rodgers loves losing Conference Championship games.

AFC:
1: Chiefs
2: Dolphins
3: Ravens
4: Colts
5: Jets
6: Texans
7: Bengals


SUPER BOWL:
Chiefs def Eagles…. AGAYNE.

AFC West

Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs weren't really supposed to win the Super Bowl in either of the past two seasons, but with some excellent drafting they managed to seamlessly transition into a defence-led team while the offence slid from elite to just decent.

The solutions at wide receiver look a lot better this time around, a couple of reliable if unspectacular veterans in Hollywood Brown and the returning Juju Smith-Schuster raising the floor, while first round draft pick Xavier Worthy could raise the ceiling as a deep threat that has been missing since Tyreek Hill's departure. Mahomes two main weapons will likely still remain Travis Kelce, although apparently starting to slow down a touch, and Rashee Rice who appears to be avoiding a suspension until next season at the earliest. Isiah Pacheco is never going to have to be a workhorse in Andy Reid's offence but he showed an impressive leap in his contribution as a receiver out of the backfield on his way to over 1500 yards from scrimmage including the playoffs. The vaunted interior 3 of the offensive line might be playing together for the last time this season, while after a couple of years of big name veterans producing middling results, they've decided to go young at LT with Kingsley Suamataia Mahomes' blindside protector.

There's two main departures from the defence which was one of the league's best last season, L'Jarius Sneed being a casualty of the need to resign Chris Jones to a mega deal. KC have shown an incredible ability to develop defensive backs so this feels like another Charvarius Ward situation where they won't miss a beat. They also have the dogs to replace departing linebacker Willie Gay, with Nick Bolton returning from an injury that caused him to miss the stretch run along with Drue Tranquill and Leon Chenal. Up front Jones is obviously the star, but they have a lot of good contributors who don't get mentioned enough like Nnadi and Danna, while George Karlaftis actually matched Jones' sack total.

Los Angeles Chargers

Jim Harbaugh is one of the most successful football coaches of the last 20 years, but now he's in charge of a franchise that always finds a way to underachieve. Whatever happens, the NFL is far better off for having one of the sport's great characters back in it.

The Chargers offence is one of the most interesting units in the league with everyone wondering exactly what they are going to dish up. With Harbaugh and Greg Roman back together there's an assumption that they will be a run heavy offence, particularly as they opted for monster LT Joe Alt in the draft over a wide receiver. But these coaches have also never had a quarterback with the talent that Justin Herbert possesses. Herbert will surely be motivated after a disappointing 2023 where he never really got going and then missed the final month with a broken finger. He's got a brand new group of receivers, with veterans Keenan Allen and Mike Williams departing, replaced by DJ Chark and rookie Ladd McConkey. On the ground they brought in Gus Edwards and JK Dobbins who Roman worked with in Baltimore, and given their injury history, rookie Kimani Vidal has been the subject of a lot of preseason interest.

Consistency is the key for the defence, which has a lot of big names who are often injured or down on form. It's slightly surprising that both Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa are back on the edges, and they're joined in the rotation by Bud Dupree. Denzel Perryman is back after a three year tour of the league, and he'll be paired with a combination of rookie Junior Colson who follows Harbaugh from Michigan and WR turned LB Daiyan Henley. Derwin James managed to stay healthy last season although didn't play at his impactful best, but might be unlocked in a Harbaugh/Minter defence.

Denver Broncos

Sean Payton's first season felt like a bit of an exercise in futility, paired with a quarterback that he obviously didn't want. He now has his handpicked guy and less people to blame for everything.

Bo Nix was a reasonably controversial first round selection, the sixth quarterback in the class rarely pans out, but he is a very experienced collegiate player which in theory will help him adapt to the NFL quicker than the average rookie. And in Payton, he has a coach who has made his reputation getting the most out of quarterbacks. Denver's receiver room, regularly touted in recent years as one of the most talented on paper, never reached any sort of heights, and now Courtland Sutton is the only one left. He's joined by decent contributor Josh Reynolds and Marvin Mims who has shown playmaking ability as a returner. In the running game, Javonte Williams is a year removed from his ACL tear and will be hoping to return to his tackle breaking best as a rookie, while Audric Estime joins him after starring with 30 touchdowns in two seasons at Notre Dame.

The big weakness of Vance Joseph's defence last season was stopping the run, so they've brought in DJ Jones and John Franklin-Myers to join Zach Allen. It was pass rush by committee for them with Jonathon Cooper and Nik Bonitto combining for 16, while Baron Browning mixed in after missing the first six games with injury. In the secondary they have a genuine lockdown corner in Patrick Surtain, but little else which means opponents tend to just throw to the other side of the field. That position looks like it will go to Riley Moss, who was Cooper DeJean's predecessor at the university of white DBs.

Las Vegas Raiders

Las Vegas were left standing in the game of quarterback musical chairs when they saw Nix and Penix fly off the draft board ahead of them, and as a result they cannot be expecting much from this season.

Gardner Minshew will start by default, and while he's a decent backup level player who kept the Colts in the hunt last season, it wouldn't be surprising to see Aiden O'Connell return to the lineup at some point. Both will have decent weapons at their disposal, led by Davante Adams who will likely be rumoured for trade talks again in October. Jakobi Meyers is a solid WR2, and when there was no quarterback available at pick 13, they selected Brock Bowers to form an intriguing dual TE set with Michael Mayer. Zamir White is a bit of a throwback RB who doesn't catch the ball, but he did lead the league in rushing over the last four games when he took over as the lead runner.

The Raiders defence, so often near the bottom of the league, was actually perfectly decent last season. Patrick Graham is a solid coordinator who is following up his good work with the Giants with his second team. It all starts with Maxx Crosby, a true superstar who has expanded the rank of elite EDGE from four to five. He'll be joined this season by big FA acquisition Christian Wilkins, who will at the very least, give opponents a second main concern. It's possible that a third might come from Tyree Wilson, who wasn't able to contribute in his rookie season because of injury. In the secondary they have ill-discplined but super talented Jack Jones who made one of the greatest interceptions of all time last season.

--

It seems a full gone conclusion that the Chiefs will win their ninth straight division title, with the Chargers and Broncos in transition and Raiders without a quarterback. After writing up the Raiders I feel better about them, but something tells me that this team just bottoms out and they do have the chance to get their guy in next year's draft. 

Broncos also drafted Troy Franklin who was Bo Nix receiver in college too. I don’t think Franklin makes much of an impact right away either, but I’m judging that off of how Payton didn’t give Mims a real chance last season either.

I think the Raiders are going to absolutely suck and I can’t wait for Mahomes revenge game against them. He’s so going to throw for 5-6 TDs against them.

NFC West

San Francisco 49ers

How many times can you fall just short? Kyle Shanahan's 49ers are quickly becoming the new 90s Bills, losing two Super Bowls and two NFC Championship games in the past five seasons, three of those despite having double-digit leads.

San Francisco's offence was a thing of beauty last season, becoming the first team in history to have two wide receivers, tight end and running back each gain over 1000 scrimmage yards. Brock Purdy will continue to have a truly enviable group of weapons in his second season as the starter. Ricky Pearsall, drafted as a future Aiyuk/Deebo replacement, has missed a lot of training camp so might be slowly mixed in as the season progresses. Aiyuk received all the media attention, but the more concerning contract issue is that of superstar LT Trent Williams. The usually high powered offence completely ground to a halt in the three games Williams missed with injury last season, he is arguably the most valuable non-QB in the league. The offensive line is a middling unit with Williams in the lineup, and drops to quite poor without him. I don't think it's an exaggeration to say that San Francisco's hopes of finally getting over the hump rest on resolving this contract situation.

The defence, while perfectly respectable last season, wasn't quite as dominant as 2022, and as a result Steve Wilks only lasted one season as DC. Assistant Nick Sorenson has been promoted from within to replace him, joined by former Chargers HC Brandon Staley, with the task of returning the unit to . They obviously have the talent to do so, superstars abound at all positions. The main addition is Leonard Floyd, a perennially reliable pass rusher as the #2 edge opposite Nick Bosa. Bosa should be back among the sack leaders this season after he was slow start following his holdout, and you'd also expect more production from Javon Hargrave who played half the season with a torn thumb ligament. De'Vondre Campbell looks like a great fill in option at linebacker while Dre Greenlaw continues his recovery from his torn Achilles. They're still solid in the secondary with Ward and Lenoir on the outside, and Talanoa Hufanga returning from his ACL tear.

Los Angeles Rams

The Rams were one of the surprise packets of last season, with the general consensus mocking their "remodel not rebuild" mantra, only to see Sean McVay recapture his mojo and Les Snead again prove himself as one of the most dynamic and successful GMs, as they became one of the in form teams in the back half.

A big reason for their success was unearthing two gems, Puka Nacua had one of the best ever rookie seasons by a WR, while Kyren Williams exploded onto the scene averaging five yards per carry. It will be interesting to see how workloads are shared this season, Williams has been announced as the team's punt returner which might indicate that they plan on giving rookie Blake Corum a reasonable amount of touches. Targets from Matthew Stafford might be more evenly shared between Nacua and Cooper Kupp this season, with the latter having a full offseason ramp up this time around. They gave Jonah Jackson a big FA contract to try and upgrade the offensive line, but he's missed most of training camp.

Defensively it's all about coping in a post-Aaron Donald world with arguably the greatest ever interior defender retiring after 10 brilliant seasons. They drafted two players out of Florida State, Jared Verse and Braden Fiske, hoping that their familiarity can translate to the pros. They'll line up with Kobie Turner who had a very impressive 9 sacks as a rookie interior rusher, while classmate Byron Young added 8 from OLB. They surprisingly traded away defensive captain Ernest Jones to Tennessee, so the middle linebacker position appears to fall to undrafted rookie Omar Speights. The secondary is largely overhauled, highlighted by former all-pro Tre White. Darious Williams rejoins the team after a couple of years down in Jacksonville, and the hard hitting safety Kamren Curl comes over from Washington.

Seattle Seahawks

Partially overshadowed by Bill Belichick leaving the Patriots, Seattle also have a new head coach after Pete Carroll's fourteen season at the helm. Mike Macdonald worked wonders as the Baltimore DC, and he's entrusted the offense to first time NFL playcaller Ryan Grubb who turned the University of Washington into a dynamic force.

The major issue for the Seahawks offence last season was protecting Geno Smith, so they signed a few interior guys like Connor Williams and Laken Tomlinson, and will hope that LT Charles Cross can stay healthy. Grubb's offense with the Huskies was based around two star wide receivers, and he has a great trio to work with here in DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Seattle fans will be hoping to see more of the latter after an underwhelming rookie season where he was mainly used around the line of scrimmage rather than utilising his separation and route running ability. Seattle also has two good young running backs in Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet.

They made their big move to upgrade their defence at the trade deadline, trading for Leonard Williams, who they extended during the offseason. The first round draft pick also went to the defensive front picking the tackle Byron Murphy who'll mix in with Jarran Reed and Johnathan Hankins. The linebackers are new, Bobby Wagner and Jordyn Brooks both gone, replaced by Jerome Baker and Tyrel Dodson - who both could be the beneficiaries of being coached by Macdonald. The secondary looks like it could be a real strength, Devon Witherspoon was fantastic as a rookie, Riq Woolen is also young and talented, and Julian Love had 120 tackles and 4 interceptions at safety.

Arizona Cardinals

It's been a couple of really lean years for Cardinals fans, but they finally have reason for optimism with Kyler Murray back in the fold and the excitement of potentially generational talent Marvin Harrison Jr.

Murray looked very decent in his half season in 2023, and that 8 game (essentially practice) stretch in Drew Petzing's offence could pay dividends for this season. He now has MHJ who projects as an instant WR1, allowing Michael Wilson and Greg Dortch to slip into the 2 and 3 slots they suit, while Trey McBride emerged as a future contender as one of the league's best receiving tight ends. James Conner quietly had a really good season at running back, and they added Trey Benson as the second RB drafted to supplement him. Jonah Williams, formerly of the Bengals, was signed in FA and will play at right tackle.

So while it's reasonable to be bullish about the offence, it's the defence that still looks rough. The defensive line was terrible last season, and while there are now a few new faces, it still doesn't inspire. BJ Ojulari out for the season is a blow to an already underwhelming pass rush which only managed 33 sacks last season. First round draft pick DE Darius Robinson should eventually get plenty of playing time, but he's for at least the first four games with a calf injury. The secondary is the only area that looks halfway reliable, with veteran safety pair Budda Baker and Jalen Thompson together again, while the starting outside corners will be Sean Murphy-Bunting previously of the Titans, and rookie Max Melton.

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So the 49ers should easily win the division again, and I feel confident in the Rams making the playoffs again. Seattle might have too many moving parts with their inexperienced coaches, and Arizona's defence just looks too weak for them to compete even if their offence could be quite good.