In her plea deal, Ellis reported that Trump told people he was not going to leave the White House after losing. Powell said similar. There statements will be admissible in in the DC case.

Also since Smith opposed cameras in the trial, as fed trials do not have cameras, Trump now is demanding that TV stations be granted access to the hearings. Smith likely does not care either way, just did not want to open any vectors for appeal. So looking like next week we get a ruling that trial will be televised.

Another wave of polls showing Trump is leading nationally, and in swing states.

Looking at the data, it seems people are moving from voting for Biden to not likely voting. And with no vote from home, turnout determines the election.

Of course dems say polls are always wrong, or polls this far out are not valid, and feel no need to start campaigning or messaging.

Fully expect Biden to lose the election if shit is not changed, and if Trump is elected, feel people deserve to have him as president still.

///

In other polls, GOP struggling to attract voters.  The House being in constant chaos is hurting them on the national level.  Trump support only support Trump and have no loyalty to party at all.  Years of rallying against Republicans is making the down ticket races favorable to dems.

Nov 23, 2023 7:40:08 GMT c said:

Another wave of polls showing Trump is leading nationally, and in swing states.

Looking at the data, it seems people are moving from voting for Biden to not likely voting. And with no vote from home, turnout determines the election.

Of course dems say polls are always wrong, or polls this far out are not valid, and feel no need to start campaigning or messaging.

Fully expect Biden to lose the election if shit is not changed, and if Trump is elected, feel people deserve to have him as president still.

///

In other polls, GOP struggling to attract voters.  The House being in constant chaos is hurting them on the national level.  Trump support only support Trump and have no loyalty to party at all.  Years of rallying against Republicans is making the down ticket races favorable to dems.

It's okay, the DNC has plenty of time to print ballots.

Looks like Trump's 14th amendment defense is going well. The judge in the Supreme Court of Colorado case asked his lawyer if he thought his defense was utterly absurd. He may remain on the ballot, but not because of the legal advice his legal team brought. He is also getting destroyed by his legal team in NY. These two cases do not matter for the big picture, but if he does not get his shit together, he will lose the case that matters in DC.

www.rawstory.com/colorado-1th-amendment-absurd/

Still no word on that trial being televised. Smith said Trump should not have it televised because the common person would not have it televised. Trump responded by demanding it be televised and joined the media groups asking the same.

The media has finally come out hard against Trump with many places taking a firm stand against him finally and dropping the Biden is too old to run stories.

The pro-Palestine Abaddon Biden group media stories also fell apart when the main speakers were revealed to have ties to Hamas, and the leader abused his two ex-wives. Even right wing rags are trashing the groups to create distance between them and republicans.

For the House wave of retirements coming from the GOP that no longer want to be part of a House where MAGA is in charge.
McCarthy the latest to announce they are leaving. The House GOP are descent more and more into chaos with violence becoming a regular occurance between members. Getting very close to a straight out fight. Right now just hard body checks and getting shook.

And news came out today that Smith will present the case that Trump did tell the Proud Boys to stand by, and how they followed his public orders to fight like hell on Jan 6th, and to join him in going to the capital. He then will use Trump comments that these people were patriots for their support.

Seems a lot of the case will be of things Trump himself made public. Mixed with testimony of everyone who flipped on him here and in georgia for immunity. Gonna be hard to convince a jury that everything Trump said was misunderstood and everyone testifying is lying.

Trial starts in March, jury selection process already started.

www.mediaite.com/news/jack-smith-drops-bombshell-filing-promising-proof-of-trump-encouragement-of-violence-and-knowledge-of-consequences/

On the other side Biden impeachment inquiry vote will be soon. Still going on Biden Gate that at the orders of Joe, Hunter took brides in the Ukraine. All witnesses testified so far that they had no proof of brides. Several of the GOP's top witnesses will not be able to appear since they were charged with a variety crimes related to working with Russia during the time in which Rudy paid them for information that could take down Biden. At least two witnesses are in hiding, and others are now in jail.

Ukraine charged them with treason for the Burisma rumors being spreads on behalf of Russia.  They were charged with being Russian agents by Trump's Treasury dept as well.

Appeals court refuses to reverse the NY decision that Trump committed wide scale fraud in NY. NY Supreme Court is next.

www.rawstory.com/trump-organization-fraud-2666475449/

I watched some of the debate last night since that was on one of the few channels that would come in on my antenna. I have to say I enjoyed Chris Christie. I think he knows he is pretty much out of the running. He did not seem to put on the over the top performance that others did. To me he came across as more genuine than the others.

Dec 8, 2023 1:12:56 GMT bodyslam said:

I watched some of the debate last night since that was on one of the few channels that would come in on my antenna. I have to say I enjoyed Chris Christie. I think he knows he is pretty much out of the running. He did not seem to put on the over the top performance that others did. To me he came across as more genuine than the others.

I think The CW is now affiliated with NewsNation.  Their channels in NYC, LA, and I think Chicago carried it.

Pity those debates are meaningless. Trump is carrying like 70% in polls. After Iowa I expect most to drop out as the writing is on the wall.

Trump already claiming voter fraud in the Iowa caucus. Casey DeSantis encouraged moms and grandmas to come from out of state and vote for Ron.

///


And in crazy ass late night rants Trump talks about charging Obama for murder over the border.

Smith now asking the Supreme Court to rule on whether or not a president has absolute immunity during his presidency. If they rule no Trump's lawsuit starts as normal in DC. If they rule yes, then the lawsuit is dead and Trump gets permission to do whatever he wants his second term, even if it is not legal.

Whirlwind of news but appeals court will have a ruling on Trump's objections next week, and Supreme Court gave Trump until end of next week to respond. Smith is asking them to order the DC trial start without delay, and the Supreme Court has agreed to take the case and rush it.  With a lower court ruling expected before the the Supreme Court ruling, they can simply order the lower courts be followed and rule in a fast one page ruling.

Should they rule the trial must start without delay, Trump will not be able to continue to try to delay it and all objections will have to be heard separately without delays, rather than pause the trial.

Manchin starting his presidential tour in Jan. Will do a two month trial run to see if there is support for a Manchin presidency. No Labels should be attached to try to make it a four way race now in 2024.

Next month primaries start. Biden will not be on the New Hampshire primary so not expected that Dems go vote. Coin flip if Phillips wins or Biden wins on write in votes. Considered a rogue primary on the Dem side.

More interesting is the GOP side. Trump has a wide lead, but his base is worried that MAGA will not turn out. Which will be concerning since the Gov and a lot of the state GOP endorsed Hailey. While Trump leads 2 to 1 in polls, Hailey's people are fired up to turn out, and MAGA is not really being pushed to the primaries at all. Trump been running as if he already won.

And Hailey really does not even need to win NH to do serious damage. She gets close it would set up a rally behind her as the alternative. And bring in the money for a super tues push.

OMFG. As of right now Trump cannot appear on Colorado ballots as he was ruled disqualified from being president via the 14th amendment by the Colorado Supreme Court.

Will go to the US Supreme Court but will be a hard ruling to overturn since there is no constitutional right to popular vote elections, and thus freedom to appear in them, in the text of the constitution. Also federal courts are presumed to defer to state courts in matters of elections so the supreme court may not even hear this.

This holds all states are free to remove Trump entirely from their ballots bia the 14th amendment.

If an appeal is filed to the supreme court colorado will let him appear on the primary, but if he wins, will not appear on the main ballot unless the supreme court make a very specific ruling that is not likely.  The ruling to put Trump back on the ballot is the style of ruling the GOP nationally opposes as it would force federal interference into state election procedures.

///

Finding from this case were:

Colorado law allows voters to have constitutional challenges on candidates.

The insurrectionist ban applies to the president.

The attack on the capital meets the standard for an insurrection.

Trump was engaged in said insurrection. 

Insurrection is not covered by free speech.

Colorado does not need congressional authority for it's elections.

Ruling was 4-3.

I will absolutely shocked if this ruling stands.

Dec 20, 2023 1:04:21 GMT KJ said:

I will absolutely shocked if this ruling stands.

I kindasorta agree with you *if* the Supreme Court decided to take this case, but I see it just as (if not more) likely that the SC says 'I ain't getting involved in this mess' and declines to hear it

Well takes three to hear it and Thomas is compromised and Alito is for sale. Leaves them only needing one.

A ruling here by the Supreme Court opens the door for federal oversight and control of the election system, something democrats very much want, and something republicans very much claim to oppose. Historically the court has not wanted to make ruling for this reason. Gonna be interesting to see the fallout, as dems will quickly say we should have a board to hear these cases to ensure something like this does not happen again where conservatives groups fighting deprive people of their rights.

Frankly, the Republican group should slow walk this, and claim they are too busy to present the case before the supreme court at the moment, and due to Trump's already heavy legal load, suggest it would be best to hear this in 2026 or later while allowing the lower court ruling to stand.

Good to know that the first quarter of the new year they will be devoted solely to ruling if Trump is basically god emperor or not as they have now two immunity suits related to Jan 6th to hear, with two more immunity cases in the pipeline claiming slandering a woman you sexuality assaulted and altering the results of state election are part of the president's official duties.  Should be a push for the court to be presented every single trump immunity claim in courts right now at once.  Just get it all over with now, and state openly that supreme court precedent matters and they will not hear claims of a similar nature from Trump in the future.

I also find it HILARIOUS people are claiming this was a partisan attack, when Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington is a conservative watchdog group that filed the lawsuit. Like democrats were not involved in this fight. Don't blame us for laughing at MAGA and mainline GOP going to war in the courts.  Dems are going to win Colorado either way, and would likely do worse against Haley which is who is likely to win if Trump was barred from the primary ballot.

Like DQ Trump nationally and Haley beats Biden almost certainly.  Keep Trump on, and Biden is still in good shape to get a win.  Particularly given the amount of lawsuits Trump is looking to lose between now and then for criminal actions.

Colorado GOP saying if the Supreme Court does not reverse this they will cancel the GOP primary election and hold a true caucus. Rules for the caucus are to be decided but almost certainly will be setup so Trump cannot lose.

I assume cancelling the primary after ballet certification will see lawsuits from Haley and DeSantis.  

May also result in a plural election where the winner of the GOP primary and caucus are on the ballot for legal reasons.  Ruling stands neither can be Trump.

///

Speaking of Trump, all attempts to dismiss his fraud trial during the damages stage have been summarily dismissed.  He was found guilty before the damage trial started based on material evidence of fraud, and the court will not dismiss the calculation of damages as his legal team demands.


www.mediaite.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Trump-Fraud-Trial-Judge-Smacks-Down-Demand-to-Dismiss-In-Blistering-Order-%E2%80%94-Burns-Down-Trump-Expert.pdf

Which means Trump absolutely is melting down on Truth Social right now as the triple threat of Colorado, the NYC trial wrapping up and the Supreme Court not allowing him to indefinitely suspend the Jan 6th case are all hitting.

Georgia also is starting to move more and more and will see most of his legal team testify against him.  Courts have ruled already that there is immunity claims for state charges, and presidential immunity does not cover it in Meadow's case.  Meadows is expected to flip on Trump as well in the near future.

Move over, Colorado, you've got company.

Maine is now the second state to disqualify Donald Trump from the primary ballot, per their Secretary of State.

I have been saying this for a while and it normally sees me labelled as a conspiracy theorist or whatever.
But do we really think that Biden is going to contest the election?

The man is elderly and in obvious mental decline, not that there is anything sinister, he is just an old man...

This article caught my eye this morning:


www.news.com.au/finance/work/leaders/joe-biden-will-pull-out-of-2024-presidential-race-jpmorgan-predicts/news-story/88b0411a6cf89a8c8dfe79a2ea5e366f

I mean if he does he does, but it would be pretty rough to Dem voters if this was already the plan and he does it after the primaries.

Jan 9, 2024 3:24:43 GMT iNCY said:

I have been saying this for a while and it normally sees me labelled as a conspiracy theorist or whatever.
But do we really think that Biden is going to contest the election?

The man is elderly and in obvious mental decline, not that there is anything sinister, he is just an old man...

This article caught my eye this morning:


www.news.com.au/finance/work/leaders/joe-biden-will-pull-out-of-2024-presidential-race-jpmorgan-predicts/news-story/88b0411a6cf89a8c8dfe79a2ea5e366f

I mean if he does he does, but it would be pretty rough to Dem voters if this was already the plan and he does it after the primaries.

If one were to keep clicking/googling to find the JP Morgan piece in question

privatebank.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-wm-aem/global/cwm/en/insights/eye-on-the-market/outlook-2024-jpmwm.pdf

(page 41)

Top ten surprises for 2024 in honor of Byron Wien
Market Strategist Byron Wien passed away last year at the age of 90. For over 30 years whether at Morgan Stanley or Blackstone, Byron published a top ten list of surprises for the following year. I never read any of the articles that kept score on how well Byron’s predictions did since that’s not the point. They were an exercise in thinking against the grain about what might happen in an industry dominated by consensus. In Byron’s honor, for one time only, here’s my list of top ten possible surprises for 2024.

so Biden stepping away ranks as "not likely, but one should still make plans just in case"

My bad, I still think him stepping down is more likely than unlikely though

Trump turned on Vivek today, which isn't surprising,, Trump has zero class or loyalty.
Makes me wonder if the major polls aren't telling the story

Jan 14, 2024 13:38:08 GMT iNCY said:

Trump turned on Vivek today, which isn't surprising,, Trump has zero class or loyalty.
Makes me wonder if the major polls aren't telling the story

Major polls have been wrong for three election cycles now.

Vivek drops out and the Trump train rolls on.

The fact we’re going to see Trump vs. Biden again is nauseating. I can’t believe this is the best either party can do.

Jan 16, 2024 5:24:02 GMT KJ said:

The fact we’re going to see Trump vs. Biden again is nauseating. I can’t believe this is the best either party can do.

The media has been talking up Hayley, but I think she is the Democrat choice amongst Republicans.
Vivek was the only one who sounded different to me, I also think Trump's margin is wide enough that money is going to dry up for the other candidates.
Now it will be whether one goes after being Trump's VP.

It was such a weird play for DeSantis if he had have run not against Trump next time he would have stood a great chance.


I don't think the DNC wants to see Trump vs Biden 2, I expect someone else is in the WH by then, Biden's approval rating is cratering, but installing Harris would only make it worse.