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Post by System on Jan 17, 2021 21:54:47 GMT
I’m really sick of people overseas pointing to Australia as an example of low cases due to masks. Very few people wore masks in Australia at any point in this pandemic except for in places like Vic while they were mandatory.
Masks work but that’s no excuse to just blatantly lie to back up your claim.
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Legend
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Post by nath45 on Jan 17, 2021 22:26:20 GMT
I’m really sick of people overseas pointing to Australia as an example of low cases due to masks. Very few people wore masks in Australia at any point in this pandemic except for in places like Vic while they were mandatory. Masks work but that’s no excuse to just blatantly lie to back up your claim. There's a lot of questions coming out of this, I live less than 1 hour from the Victorian/NSW border. I have colleagues that live in NSW that travel into Victoria daily. I was working out of NSW at one point and travelling home into Victoria. In recent months, I've been into NSW (prior to border closures) a place like Echuca and Moama is the same community despite the border and being separated by a river and yet, had differing requirements around wearing masks, and guess what? No need for concern on either side of the border in that community despite being able to move freely between states. So do the masks work? I look at the large retailers, who have shown you can serve thousands of customers a day without issue, because they have the correct and effective policy in place. You have to wear a mask in a supermarket yet don't have to in a smaller business, who may or may not, and is less likely to have the same level of cleaning, food safety and covid safe measures.
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Post by c on Jan 18, 2021 22:46:59 GMT
Cali has such a large backlog of bodies that they are suspending air quality rules to allow crematoriums to burn non-stop.
Aussieland numbers were low from aggressive lockdowns and contact tracing. When an outbreak occured they were able to trace the projected spread.
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God
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Post by iNCY on Jan 19, 2021 7:59:00 GMT
I’m really sick of people overseas pointing to Australia as an example of low cases due to masks. Very few people wore masks in Australia at any point in this pandemic except for in places like Vic while they were mandatory. Masks work but that’s no excuse to just blatantly lie to back up your claim. There's a lot of questions coming out of this, I live less than 1 hour from the Victorian/NSW border. I have colleagues that live in NSW that travel into Victoria daily. I was working out of NSW at one point and travelling home into Victoria. In recent months, I've been into NSW (prior to border closures) a place like Echuca and Moama is the same community despite the border and being separated by a river and yet, had differing requirements around wearing masks, and guess what? No need for concern on either side of the border in that community despite being able to move freely between states. So do the masks work? I look at the large retailers, who have shown you can serve thousands of customers a day without issue, because they have the correct and effective policy in place. You have to wear a mask in a supermarket yet don't have to in a smaller business, who may or may not, and is less likely to have the same level of cleaning, food safety and covid safe measures. I don't think masks work beyond being a sub conscious trigger for mindfulness.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 22, 2021 20:54:36 GMT
So it's been a while since I posted in here. The situation in the UK is, according to the government and their advisers, precarious. Press conferences are routinely filled with doom and gloom, and there is little hope being offered by figures of authority that restrictions will be lifted to any significant degree before early-summer. I can feel my mental health starting to wane, although I kind of feel guilty about that because my situation is very good compared to most others. Nevertheless, I thought I'd offer a few crumbs of hope to British posters. Lord knows we need it. No idea if this applies to other parts of the world:
So this claim by SAGE (the government advisory committee) that the new virus variant is up to 70% more transmissible is part-guesswork. Basically, three things happened that correlated. A new variant appeared with a semi-novel structure, that variant then became dominant in regions quickly, and the R rate went up. By no means does this guarantee causation. What Neil Ferguson and his team would have done is analysed parts of the virus for signs of increased transmissibility, and using a computer model, would have given consideration to other variables that could also have had an impact (colder weather, full shops, Christmas gatherings). It is my view that the significance of these variables is so high that there cannot possibly be a high-level of confidence in this finding. Christmas represents a unique opportunity for devastation - freezing cold weather, families of all ages getting together, and shops. Shops is an underrated aspect because they are likely the biggest driver of infection, and at this time of the year, they are crammed.
What frustrates me, and I understand that data modelling is what we have to use because we can't see into the future, but what frustrates me is the level of certainty with which this is being communicated, and that every doom-mongering prediction that the government is spouting weekly is based off this far-from-certain analysis. In the last week I've heard:
- Pubs won't open until May (good luck with that) - Significant restrictions until the summer - One scientist even said that because flu rate was down, we should go into restrictions every winter to try to eliminate flu
Even today there was a report that this British variant has a 30-50% higher mortality rate. In a country where most people aren't getting tested because if they do they have to self-isolate and won't be able to afford their bills, how the fuck do they reach any such conclusion?
Basically, at feels as if, at least in Britain, we are being slowly introduced to the idea that lockdowns will last forever in some form and vaccines won't fix anything. This is despite the fact that Britain is on track to vaccinate all priority one people (over 80s, care home residents and workers, health service workers) by mid-February. They represent 90% of all deaths.
I also feel like epidemiologists are enjoying their moment in the sun. If I have to hear one more fucking epidemiologist I'm going to lose my mind. Please be careful when consuming information from these people, directly, or worse, through the media. Sky News would love this furore to last forever. What happens when everyone's afraid? They watch the news.
This is a horrible disease and my condolences to everyone who has lost someone. And I should be clear, by no means do I think restrictions should be lifted before March in any meaningful way (in the UK). That's just stupid.
TL;DR - two points
- Don't take computer modelled data for any more value than it's worth. Scientists have to use it to form policy with government, but it should not be used to enlighten the general public on how long restrictions might last. It might literally be wrong.
- Fuck SAGE and the British government for treating us like children. I even heard today 'perhaps stricter measures will be needed'. Like what? Wearing a fucking strait jacket? Get in touch with reality. Useless cunts.
Hope everyone's doing ok.
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Legend
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Post by 🤯 on Jan 22, 2021 21:24:40 GMT
It's good shit like this that makes Todd one of my favorite posters.
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Post by iron maiden on Jan 22, 2021 21:52:05 GMT
We too were just told that the restrictions will not be lifted for the foreseeable future even though our numbers are half what they were a month ago. With people already on the brink of anarchy over this whole thing, I wonder if not giving any hope is a wise idea.
My issue with the mandates is not that they are making them, as we-here at least-have proven without a shadow of a doubt that we cannot be trusted with doing what needs to be done for our own safety and the safety of others without them having to make mandates. My issue is that the mandates themselves (again -at least here) are so wishy washy. It's no wonder people aren't listening, are fed up and frankly think something more covert is going on.
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Legend
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Post by Ness on Jan 22, 2021 21:55:01 GMT
Fuck it, this is life from now on.
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Legend
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Post by 🤯 on Jan 22, 2021 21:57:30 GMT
Fuck it, this is life from now on. I'm down with this. Just chomped two gummies to celebrate.
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Legend
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Post by nath45 on Jan 22, 2021 23:33:24 GMT
I've come to accept this is life now, at least for the next few years.
Something that hasn't really been discussed in detail is the difference in how this affects different generation. Listening to some talk back radio on a youth station - the so called millennials continually dropped the phrasing "unable to live my best life" - guys you have a roof over your head, you work, you eat and you're not dodging bullets. And for the most, the world hasn't descended into chaos or has it thrown us into a dust bowl era depression.
Yet.
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Legend
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Post by Ness on Jan 22, 2021 23:38:24 GMT
I've come to accept this is life now, at least for the next few years. Something that hasn't really been discussed in detail is the difference in how this affects different generation. Listening to some talk back radio on a youth station - the so called millennials continually dropped the phrasing " unable to live my best life" - guys you have a roof over your head, you work, you eat and you're not dodging bullets. And for the most, the world hasn't descended into chaos or has it thrown us into a dust bowl era depression. Yet. If you didn't say continually I woulda assumed the quote was said ironically. Wow to think putting the whole world on notice is considered a minor inconvenience to them.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 23, 2021 11:30:04 GMT
So now it turns out the 70% more transmissible variant is not actually dominant at all. The proportion of this variant relevant to all variants is down this week in the UK. I've also read that it was in California in October and did nothing there, and cases of it in the Netherlands have been falling for four weeks. It's almost as if Christmas may have exacerbated this, as it does with the flu every single year.
Epidemiology, folks. What a fucking joke.
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Post by c on Jan 24, 2021 1:14:36 GMT
The US will be testing that herd immunity theory in the near future. Models show we hit near 20% already.
The B variant of COVID will be dominant in the US by March it is said. It decimated Cali. Crematoriums are running 24/7 now to deal with the bodies.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 24, 2021 7:57:05 GMT
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Post by iNCY on Jan 24, 2021 11:39:47 GMT
I share your contempt for the epidemiology. It's bordering on criminal the way elected officials surrender all responsibility to non elected government appointed health officers. They are making every decision on a single metric, when the economy, mental health and the like are vid considerations. I have never been a climate change sceptic, but this pandemic has made me think all computer modelling is BS I haven't seen one model even be remotely within the realms of actual outcomes to date.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 24, 2021 15:01:57 GMT
I read an interesting article published by Nature this morning discussing the impact of vitamin D. The data is a bit cherry-picked but the correlation is extremely strong in the data displayed. Here it is: www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-81419-wThe article gives good consideration to the elephant in the room - school openings - and produces some compelling correlation. I don't like that some countries have been excluded without explanation, but that is somewhat offset by the sheer quality of the correlation. Figure 3, chart C is the best example of this. I'll post it here: 18 countries is not a small sample size, and this some of the best correlation I've seen since the start of the pandemic. Usual caveats - this is such a fast-moving situation that it is impossible to eliminate the impact of other variables like the opening of schools, but God damn. Look at that line. As much stick as I give epidemiologists, and most of it rightly so, what a ridiculously hard fucking job they've got lol On top of the unknown effect of individual lockdown measures, rogue variants, vaccine efficacy, and cold weather, we can now add darkness to the mix!
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Post by c on Jan 24, 2021 21:17:47 GMT
What you are missing is we are not testing at all for which variation of COVID it is, so the spread of the variant is unknown. So 32 is a massively underestimated statistic. Vit D thing is interesting as my Vit D number hovers around 4 but I had very little reaction to the virus. So despite the severe vit D deficiency I have that I routinely forget to take vitamins to counter I was an exception. I would not put much stock into that study. It was a study of convenience that very likely was more postdiction than prediction. Classic flexible measures design where they test a shitload of things and only report on the test they have done that are relevant to the paper. The science however assumes every test conducted will be reported, and when it is not, the results can be misleading making spurious correlation appear more impressive than they really are. Here is my favorite example of when you dig you find interesting relationships. Chart does not lie, the more films Nic Cage does the more people who will drown. Attachments:
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Post by c on Jan 24, 2021 21:21:28 GMT
Another great one - The more lawyers in NC, the people die of asphyxiation, r=.99, almost a perfect relationship.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 24, 2021 21:21:44 GMT
What you are missing is we are not testing at all for which variation of COVID it is, so the spread of the variant is unknown. This is my point entirely. We don't know. Huge assumptions are being made about this variant which relies on tha transmissibility data being accurate, which is highly questionable.
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Post by c on Jan 24, 2021 21:23:29 GMT
Very true, but finding the virus and knowing it spreads more rapidly means it already is spreading in the population. Given it spreads exponentially, and knowing American gathered en masse last month, it is safe to assume it already saturated communities.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 24, 2021 21:24:17 GMT
I agree on the sunlight data. It was such a strong correlation that it caught my eye. I also found interesting the difference in correlation between sunlight and surge and temperature and surge. No correlation with temperature at all.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 24, 2021 21:26:11 GMT
Very true, but finding the virus and knowing it spreads more rapidly means it already is spreading in the population. Given it spreads exponentially, and knowing American gathered en masse last month, it is safe to assume it already saturated communities. But we don't know it spreads more rapidly because of its structure. I am reading more and more reports that it's waning. In the UK there are other variants becoming more prominent. I just urge caution with this stuff. Huge economic and social decisions are being made on what I see as really flimsy data.
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Post by c on Jan 24, 2021 21:26:15 GMT
It is a near relationship, and appears very clear. But working with data, I know that is extremely rare to see in the wild and when you do, it is usually misleading. Also reducing a complex system down to a simple univariate correlation is almost always misleading. I did my thesis on a case of this where our simple model we used in many studies turned out to be wrong when a different method was applied, and more importantly, two outliers that hide in the dataset were identified. What is sad is the people who followed me, are still using the outliers in their analyses and no one is saying anything.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 26, 2021 14:55:05 GMT
Has anybody been following the story between the EU and the UK? Some real drama.
The EU is way behind in its vaccination program because they wanted to lower costs on procurement compared with the UK. The result is that the UK is way ahead of the EU. Now the EU are threatening to withhold Pfizer vaccines (that Britain don't really need) whilst asking for a shitload of the British vaccine. The kicker is that the EMA has yet to approve the British vaccine, and the EU are still asking for millions of doses. Now the UK may retaliate (rightly so, IMO) and block the EU getting AstraZeneca, which these countries desperately need for its mobility.
On top of this, a respectable German paper, not a tabloid, reported yesterday that sources told them the Oxford vaccine was only 8% effective amongst over-65s. The German Health Minister corrected it this morning, saying figures were confused and actually 8% of trial participants were over 65. :lol: What a total disgrace!
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Post by nazzer on Jan 26, 2021 17:57:19 GMT
Has anybody been following the story between the EU and the UK? Some real drama. The EU is way behind in its vaccination program because they wanted to lower costs on procurement compared with the UK. The result is that the UK is way ahead of the EU. Now the EU are threatening to withhold Pfizer vaccines (that Britain don't really need) whilst asking for a shitload of the British vaccine. The kicker is that the EMA has yet to approve the British vaccine, and the EU are still asking for millions of doses. Now the UK may retaliate (rightly so, IMO) and block the EU getting AstraZeneca, which these countries desperately need for its mobility. On top of this, a respectable German paper, not a tabloid, reported yesterday that sources told them the Oxford vaccine was only 8% effective amongst over-65s. The German Health Minister corrected it this morning, saying figures were confused and actually 8% of trial participants were over 65. What a total disgrace!And trash like this is why the public is confused.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 28, 2021 23:05:55 GMT
Early results from Israel, the world's fastest vaccinating country, are extraordinary:
In 163,000 vaccinated people (7-16 days after second dose) there were 31 cases of coronavirus (compared with 6,500 in the de-facto control group). All had mild illness. There were no cases of severe COVID whatsoever in this huge group, and remember this was mostly elderly people. The efficacy will continue to improve as healthier people are vaccinated.
There is not yet data on whether the vaccine mitigates transmission. It is highly likely it does - but by a little, or by a lot, is unknown. We need this data to determine whether eradication is a realistic possibility.
However, if eradication isn't possible, the outlook is still positive. mRNA vaccines can be tinkered with quickly in the case of severe mutations. it's just a matter of maintaining public trust in tinkered vaccines that may become an issue.
My belief is still that these variants are overblown and used as excuses by incompetent governments to cover failings. But if I'm wrong and these variants really are different, the early signs are that they are not different in how they respond to vaccines.
The signs are very good indeed. It certainly isn't foolish to feel positive about this.
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Post by 🤯 on Jan 29, 2021 1:00:13 GMT
Grandpa PIII got his second vaccine dose, and is apparently getting WRECKED by side effects. Uh oh!
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Post by Deleted on Jan 29, 2021 23:10:36 GMT
The EU tonight moved to break the Good Friday agreement by blocking exports to Northern Ireland. The behaviour of the EU during this issue has been disgusting - blaming for UK for ordering early, accusing AstraZeneca of conspiring to favour the UK in production (with no basis whatsoever) publishing the contract (which backs up AZ's position) and forgetting to redact sensitive information. Now today they move to breach the integrity of the Good Friday agreement.
And today they accused the UK of starting a vaccine war. The UK hasn't said or done anything! This is Trump-esque. Even if the UK gave the EU all doses, it would do nothing to the overall vaccination totals of 25 fucking countries. What a cop out. What a disgusting institution.
I think you can kiss goodbye to your second referendum. Fuck the EU
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Post by c on Jan 30, 2021 23:36:59 GMT
Yikes. That is not good. Then again, united Ireland may be in the cards if they leave Great Britain. Be a crazy finish to the trouble if the North was right all along and Ireland was better off without Britain. Todd, what you hearing about the African variant of COVID? Seen it pop up but not following COVID too closely these days.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 31, 2021 0:12:51 GMT
From what I understand there is little to no concern over transmission profile with this variant, but for reasons far beyond my scope they are concerned with some significant change in genetic structure, raising alarms over a loss of vaccine efficacy. Early tests show it might be case, so it's something to watch out for.
This week it's been mostly drowned out by the EU behaving like prats, and the positive early real world data on prevention of severe outcomes from Israel (and the UK supposedly too, though we get numbers next week), but it's clearly a concern. Coronavirus appears to have a low rate of mutation, thankfully much more similar to SARS than influenza, but with so many hundreds of thousands of cases worldwide of course you will see mutations inevitably. Vaccines will slow mutation down massively, the world really needs to get moving now. Important for the West to take some responsibility and help poorer nations too I think.
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