So, this has been simmering over for some time now, and with more and more countries now advising their nationals to leave Ukraine, ahead of a imminent invasion by Russia.

The question I guess is where is this heading? And where do you thibk it'll lead to? Another world war, just an isolated conflict between Russia and Ukraine?

Ukraine trying to bring back the Arch Deluxe.

Will be no world war. Realistically, the scenero Putin and China are trying to push is Russia takes Kiev and Eastern Ukraine. NATO comes in, and China steps up to play peacekeeper. Putin gives back Kiev but keeps the land he wants as people there want to be part of Russia anyway and comes off a national hero that stood up to NATO and won. China shows their people they are the new world leader fighting to free people from western oppression. Ukraine loses more land, but independent Ukraine is a weird thing since most still consider themselves part Russian due to the Soviet Union ties. NATO looks weak we because as a whole none of the countries involved will back a nuclear war with China and Russia. So really, they got nothing to lose from this, only the West does. If we do go in and slaughter them, he will be monsters to the Eastern Bloc and their leaders can call for a hard military response where China will take control of the disputed sea regions, Russia will take over a lot of the arctic shipping routes and they will call for peace under favorable conditions and likely get it. The US after Trump is not the leader we were, and the West was significantly weakened by his presidency. They trust Biden but see him as a transition to another Trump presidency or someone like Trump so deals with America only last until the next election basically.

If we do end in a world war it will be over extremely fast as the US and NATO have no hypersonic missiles nor counters to them.  One or two demonstrations will be all that is needed to give the warning that the next set will be nuclear.  They may lack pin point accuracy but a mile off does not matter when they missiles can rain nuclear warheads.  Trumps hydrosonics missiles simply never existed.  I frankly wonder if the reason this is all getting hyped up now is pentagon wants a trillion dollars to work with in 2022 and will likely request outright a trillion for 2023 to develop the dust shield defense for hypersonic missiles and their own toys.  But what the US wants is thousands of defensive and offensive missiles and they are not cheap at all, so we need to find a way to justify spending the same it would cost to provide universal healthcare on next gen military hardware that will likely never get used.

Well, Russia is set to move in, we evacuated the Embassy.

This is actually huge and very scary. I see war eventually because I don’t see the UN or NATO sitting back and watching this another Holodomor unfold in which 3.5 million Ukrainians were starved to death in the 30’s. It was like another holocaust.

en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomor

And what’s even worse is that many Russians to this day will even admit it happened. They say it’s a lie. Sound familiar?

Yeah, I don't believe a word our government say when they say "We won't be deploying troops to Ukraine".

Translates to they will.

Feb 12, 2022 18:20:59 GMT iron maiden said:

This is actually huge and very scary. I see war eventually because I don’t see the UN or NATO sitting back and watching this another Holodomor unfold in which 3.5 million Ukrainians were starved to death in the 30’s. It was like another holocaust.

en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomor

And what’s even worse is that many Russians to this day will even admit it happened. They say it’s a lie. Sound familiar?

Did not stop there either.  Until the collapse of the USSR my family would box up stuff monthly to send over to our Ukraine family as they literally could not get many items regularly.  Crazy Pete still insisted it was a better government system than Democracy and wished we would try communism here.  God I miss that crazy commie.

Feb 12, 2022 19:20:08 GMT c said:

Feb 12, 2022 18:20:59 GMT iron maiden said:

This is actually huge and very scary. I see war eventually because I don’t see the UN or NATO sitting back and watching this another Holodomor unfold in which 3.5 million Ukrainians were starved to death in the 30’s. It was like another holocaust.

en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomor

And what’s even worse is that many Russians to this day will even admit it happened. They say it’s a lie. Sound familiar?

Did not stop there either.  Until the collapse of the USSR my family would box up stuff monthly to send over to our Ukraine family as they literally could not get many items regularly.  Crazy Pete still insisted it was a better government system than Democracy and wished we would try communism here.  God I miss that crazy commie.

Is Crazy Pete related to Big Pete by chance?

Naw, he was my grandfather's brother in law. Came to the US in the 1970's and was known for interrupting political fights about who is better Dems or Republicans by arguing both sucked and the US needed communism. Which was funnier as he was partly deaf and a terrible lip reader so he would mishear things all the time.  Every year people would be warned no politics around Pete and they only make the mistake once of starting the talk.  He would rant and rave about how congress was stupid and the states should not be allowed governors and crap.  Like people were never prepared for Crazy Pete. TV talking points got you nowhere.

Feb 12, 2022 19:38:30 GMT 🤯 said:

Feb 12, 2022 19:20:08 GMT c said:

Did not stop there either.  Until the collapse of the USSR my family would box up stuff monthly to send over to our Ukraine family as they literally could not get many items regularly.  Crazy Pete still insisted it was a better government system than Democracy and wished we would try communism here.  God I miss that crazy commie.

Is Crazy Pete related to Big Pete by chance?

Who says they ain't one in the same? Before communism he was considered crazy. After embracing the red he just got bigger.

Sadly Pete passed away over a decade ago. Took much drinking and red meat killed his liver.

Got a damn wraith posting among us.

While I believe that this is mostly for Putins popularity domestically, I do think Russia will invade.
Politics is such a strange thing as people never look at matters through the eyes of another party. NATO exists solely for opposing Russia and Putin has said that he needs assurances that Ukraine won't join. More to the point everyone knows Ukraine joining would be a red rag to a bull so they can still flood in arms and troops without them being a signed member.

For Putin it's not so different to JFKs Cuban missile crisis. It's all just little bits of history repeating.

If Russia invades the world feigns outrage and does nothing more than sanctions. Nobody wants their kids to die on a battlefield over Ukraine, there is no appetite for war. Putin is incredibly intelligent, he knows how weak the leaders of the world's superpowers are right now.

It's not the Ukraine that keeps me awake at night, it's Taiwan. Russia taking Ukraine would embolden China and they would know there would never be a better time to do it than when the USA was stretched. Not sure that the USA could let Taiwan fall as it would take their economy with it.

What is not being mentioned in the US at least is that Eastern Ukraine is pro Russia. They do no longer want to be part of the Ukraine as they feel that 20 years the county crossed the line when the liberals stole the election in the Orange Revolution, then when Viktor Yanukovych won the re-election, the Revolution of Dignity forced him to flee to Russia. The way they see it, is Ukraine will become part of the EU and they will use any means necessary to make it happens and if legal coups fall they will use force. Russia was the only one who supported them and Putin straight out said that what happened was a coup and the current government of the Ukraine is still illegitimate. Everytime they pushed to leave the Ukraine they would get shut down by the liberal government basically forcing them to stay part of a Ukraine they no longer want to be part of.

For these people, Putin is coming to free them from the people who illegally took over the Ukraine. And the US and EU are sending in troops to stop them from leaving, and force them to become part of a European Ukraine. They saw the Crimea annexation and have been waiting for their turn.

There is no way NATO and the US can win this conflict. We are fighting for a people that do not want us there. There is no longer future for a unified Ukraine anyway. The east and west are just too divided.

Feb 13, 2022 0:02:24 GMT c said:

What is not being mentioned in the US at least is that Eastern Ukraine is pro Russia. They do no longer want to be part of the Ukraine as they feel that 20 years the county crossed the line when the liberals stole the election in the Orange Revolution, then when Viktor Yanukovych won the re-election, the Revolution of Dignity forced him to flee to Russia. The way they see it, is Ukraine will become part of the EU and they will use any means necessary to make it happens and if legal coups fall they will use force. Russia was the only one who supported them and Putin straight out said that what happened was a coup and the current government of the Ukraine is still illegitimate. Everytime they pushed to leave the Ukraine they would get shut down by the liberal government basically forcing them to stay part of a Ukraine they no longer want to be part of.

For these people, Putin is coming to free them from the people who illegally took over the Ukraine. And the US and EU are sending in troops to stop them from leaving, and force them to become part of a European Ukraine. They saw the Crimea annexation and have been waiting for their turn.

There is no way NATO and the US can win this conflict. We are fighting for a people that do not want us there. There is no longer future for a unified Ukraine anyway. The east and west are just too divided.

Sounds like it fits the bill for the kind of wars the U.S. loves to fight (at least post-WWII)!

When Russia annexed Crimea most of the pro Russian Ukrainians became part of Russia. There's not much love for Russia in Ukraine apart from that. The Ukrainians have their own culture and Orthodox religion that is a large part of their society and was crushed by the Soviets. There is little desire for a return to "Mother Russia".

Anything contrary is just a case of the grass being greener on the other side of the fence. Every time anything gets rocky in Russia the old people say bring back Stalin. When Stalin killed more of his own people than Hitler did the Jews, there isn't a low of widespread love.

Crimea was one region of the pro-Russian Ukrainians but the entire East Ukraine region wants to join Russia. Most speak Russian, are Russian ascendency, follow Eastern Orthodoxy and believe the Ukraine and Russia should be one state. Their political party, the Communist Party of the Ukraine was banned following forcing the president into exile, which is why they seek Putin to free them now.

Let's forget the fact Russia poisoned Yushchenko with Dioxon and the fact that the communist party supported the annexing of Crimea and only secured less than 4% of the vote in elections before they were banned.

Lefties are funny, do you think that the Nazi party should still be legal in Germany for those who feel so affiliated?
Let's not be fooled for one moment whether youre talking Stalin or Mao, Coomunist dictatorships are amongst the most brutal regimes the world has ever seen.

Eastern Ukraine is the right of Ukraine. The rest are far more liberal. But the entire political system there is mired in corruption from the USSR days. While the communist party got very little of the vote, the Party of Regions was very popular in the Ukraine, and was the majority party until the Orange Revolution banned the right basically. Combined they were more popular than European Solidarity and liberal blocs. Politics there is a kangaroo court though due to the extreme levels of corruption. Frankly they are fucked either way, they just get to pick whether to be fucked by the US and EU or Russia. Historically, no one gives a shit about the Ukraine themselves.

A bit weird to be reading that Russia will invade on Wednesday, that's oddly specific.

Feb 13, 2022 14:40:13 GMT Jake said:

A bit weird to be reading that Russia will invade on Wednesday, that's oddly specific.

Will they use dynamite and commit a rampage?

Feb 13, 2022 15:10:37 GMT @ness said:

Feb 13, 2022 14:40:13 GMT Jake said:

A bit weird to be reading that Russia will invade on Wednesday, that's oddly specific.

Will they use dynamite and commit a rampage?

I suspect they'll invade through the forbidden door.

Feb 13, 2022 14:40:13 GMT Jake said:

A bit weird to be reading that Russia will invade on Wednesday, that's oddly specific.

US intelligence suggested Russia would fake an atrocity, seed it to the US right wing media, and use the calls for action as an excuse to invade. 

To counter, the US intelligence is basically giving news organizations what they know to make it harder for Russia to start an alternative narrative.  Russia disinformation exploits the backroom nature of US intelligence, so by doing stuff in the open, the US makes it very hard for Russia to construct alternative narratives like they did with BLM protests, COVID, the elections and what not.  Plan is to throw Putin off foot finally by doing something the US normally does not do, and info dump all of the things we normally do not let the regular people know in terms of our movements and what we know about Putin's movements.  

It is an interesting ploy but will backfire gloriously as no doubt in the info dump are things that Russia will use against us later, again by using Russian state media to seed stories to Fox News and other networks that Russia easily manipulates.  

I gotta tell you the ramifications of this scare me more than COVID ever did.

130k troops outside of Ukraine with the Black and Mediterranean seeing heavy traffic from the Russian navy. Everyone is evacuating all personal. Ukraine says they will drop joining NATO to avoid war. US says if Russia does not back off they will defend the Ukraine.

War with Russia will be gloves off for the Russian cyberteams. Their hackers will attack the power grid in major cities to disrupt the finance markets while their disinfo teams try to get the right riot. They been active enough to get Hunter Biden and Clinton trending again to try to paint a picture of the corrupt democrats being in league with the Ukraine oppressors. Right wing media still pushing stories that the US should should be backing the Russian invasion and aid them in it.

China has been pretty silent outside of moving destroyers into position to keep US subs farther out to sea. Likely once Russia crosses into the Ukraine Biden will drone strike the staging camps and possibly launch missiles from the subs in the arctic. Real question is what will China do. They back this feud over the Ukraine as no gives a fuck about Taiwan right now, but if it goes into a hot war, things change and they will be expected to declare a side. China will use the conflict between the US and Russia to replace the US as the world leader by condemning the US for abandoning democracy with rigged elections and they have no authority to direct the actions of the world the way they do as a result.

China doesn't care about how the world views them, everything they do is for a domestic audience and trying to regain wounded pride.

Most world wars happen separate to the initial catalyst, it's like everyone puts their trash out once they see someone putting their trash out.

I agree though that Russia will cause maximum confusion with cyber warfare once they attack. It's kind of frightening how many infrastructure systema could be compromised.

The analysis I was reading is pretty scary. They said so far Russia has been extremely restrained with their hacking setting up attack vectors but not engaging. If we do go to war, they will take the gloves off and they will likely strike hard and fast and could cripple our power grid, hospitals, water infrastructure, fuel pipelines and financial markets. US intelligence briefed people two days back about the nightmare scenario of them locking up multiple sectors at once.

That alone would be bad, but the psi ops stuff is far more concerning. Russia's role in the BLM protests is super scary. They masterfully played both sides and got the two sides to fight openly in the streets. We all know that Fox News often covers RT media stories and Tucker is basically state media, but the left wing propaganda has little focus and from what I seen, it is mimics woke and cancel culture perfectly. Which means they are likely an accelerant for outrage culture from the left. People assume that Russian bots are always pro-Trump, but a lot were also anti-Trump and that side gets no talk. Left wing bots I assume work to nudge discussions into certain directions. The reach is insane too, believed their posts are seen by 140 million Americans. Or about 1/3rd of America.

Likely both botnets will push for violent protests of a war with Russia and a war between the protest groups, despite them both fighting for the same end goal. Really wish I felt better to get on this topic, but far too sick to be able to run the machine learning shit I would need to parse out the left wing bots then topic analyze them, and it seems no one is really on this topic at all. But infrastructure attacks we can fix fast. Psi ops however will leave deep scars that will not heal. Russia has got the country right now to the breaking point, and could very well rip us apart in the 2024 election and we are doing nothing to stop it.

AP confirmed the rumors that US intel has Weds as the date marked for the invasion.

If Russia had such a large social media capability, I expect you would find them astro turfing for Russia's anti NATO stance.
The easy target vector is why should the US fund Northern European defence when member countries don't contribute.
This is an easy sell and Trump already laid the ground work... But radio silence.


It is scary how much money foreign donors pour into the election campaigns of certain politicians. It's been an issue here for years.

They did astroturf it. Many GOP lawmakers have been getting calls asking why were not supporting our Russian allies against Ukraine and NATO aggression and seeded a whole lot that Biden was an ally of Russia because they are both socialists.

US solved the money issue easily saying it is just speech and people have freedom of speech.  Well and we now have spooky PACs that take money filtered through layers of shell corporations.