Trump raging at RFK Jr now after realizing that RFK Jr is taking far more votes from him than Biden, by a 2 to 1 margin.  Just as everyone said he would.  Some suggest Trump is pissed too that RFK Jr refused to be Trump's running mate, which seemed to be Bannon's plan that backfired.

Or he just needs his diaper changed.

www.nytimes.com/2024/04/27/us/politics/trump-rfk-jr-republicans.html

I have been checking the polling data and RFK is registering a high percentage of the vote, seems to be a protest vote, mostly from Dem voters who can't bring themselves to vote Biden.

All the battleground states I have seen polling data for shows Trump comfortably in front.

More than anything this election will be about who comes out to vote. Though I totally get the no Trump sentiment, I just don't know with inflation where it is people are going to hold their nose and come out for Biden.
Anyone but Trump and it would have been a walk over for the Republicans

Analysis I saw is if RFK Jr is added to the ballots, Biden drops 4 points, while Trump drops nine. 7% of Biden voters will vote for RFK Jr if he makes the ballots, while 15% of Trump's voters will.

I seen since the trial started Biden pulled ahead in the battlegrounds. Eppy Don that wears diapers to court not really the strong candidate that people claim they want.  At least five more weeks of stories of Don passing out in court and his depends will still be coming as well.

Apr 28, 2024 1:16:58 GMT c said:

Analysis I saw is if RFK Jr is added to the ballots, Biden drops 4 points, while Trump drops nine. 7% of Biden voters will vote for RFK Jr if he makes the ballots, while 15% of Trump's voters will.

I seen since the trial started Biden pulled ahead in the battlegrounds. Eppy Don that wears diapers to court not really the strong candidate that people claim they want.  At least five more weeks of stories of Don passing out in court and his depends will still be coming as well.

Small bump that seems to have evaporated.
Maybe blue states got more blue, but I expect Biden to get more votes nationally but Trump still win the states:

www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-leads-joe-biden-every-battleground-state-polling-averages-1894852

Those polls were from before the trial.  The ones taken since show support for Trump dropping.

Margin of error means the confidence intervals have not cleared each other so right now they are useless at making any prediction.

And well, Biden will be campaigning in the swing states for the next 6 weeks, Trump likely will not.  He has been canceling his weekend events, and in court the rest of the days.  His contempt hearings are set for Weds, and he cannot stop talking about the witnesses, so he will likely be in court Weds until the trial is over.

He is practically begging Biden to start the debates early too because even Fox and Newsmax no longer air his rallies they are so boring as well.   Low energy, struggling to stay awake, slurring his barely audible words Trump is not something that draws ratings for conservative networks anymore.

Speaking of the world's bravest boy, Bill Barr confirmed Trump hid in the White House bunker during the DC BLM protests.  I presume with people who would change him regularly.

Old man got in some nice jabs during this. Trump angry he could not go but it was clearly passed his bedtime.  Would offer to show what Trump is like in his speeches of late, but he cancelled his talks on the weekend these last few weeks claiming bad whether, despite his fans still attending the rallies themselves and listening to others speak at them.

Well thinking Trump locked up the election now. A lot of youth protesters are vowing not to support Biden after he condemned the violent protests. The socialist favoring kids claim they will be better off under Trump than under Biden, and do not seem to see any downside to Trump willing again.

We seen stuff like this before in 2000 and 2016. Both elections Dems went into expecting easy wins, and losing in 2016, and being close enough in 2000 that the courts decided the election wrongly. I expect the same result here. Very close election that wins takes via electoral college advantage.

I also expect the protest kids to then scream about how anyone could allow Trump win, despite not voting themselves.

Hey, maybe the impetus is on the incumbent party and the most powerful man on the planet to do things that would make people want to vote for them rather than trying to shame your base into being good little vote-piggies and hold their noses and vote for Democrats who do less than nothing because the Bad Man will be worse.

May 2, 2024 23:43:38 GMT KITN said:

Hey, maybe the impetus is on the incumbent party and the most powerful man on the planet to do things that would make people want to vote for them rather than trying to shame your base into being good little vote-piggies and hold their noses and vote for Democrats who do less than nothing because the Bad Man will be worse.

ilu dearly but Progressives are not the base. TBH I'm not entirely sure who the base is, but as far back as I can remember it's always been like herding cats and I'm not sure there is a singular THE base but I'm reasonably sure progressives don't have the numbers to call themselves the base.

This also discounts things Dems have been doing, like student debt forgiveness and, at the state level, shoring up abortion rights where it can.

Plus - I have no idea how the madman did it - breaking a union railroad strike, then going back and getting the union the paid sick days they'd been striking for in the first place.

If Progressives (I'm just kindasorta figuring that's where you're coming from, since that's the crowd I most hear 'earn my vote' from) want real power in the Dem party, they have to show up. All the time, at all the levels, not just at voting time. Joe Biden was once a city council member, possibly-future POTUS candidate Gavin Newsom is now a governor, before then a mayor, before that he was a city board member and before that was appointed to like the parking commission.

Run for things. Run for ALL the things. Run for school board. Run for state controller. Run for non-government but still important things like the local DCCC, because today's state assembly member is tomorrow's senator is next decade's Presidential candidate. And while not all of them will be Presidential candidates, a bunch will still be senators and even more will be in the state legislatures. That's how things get done.

I am very much a proponent of "If you want change, you need to be active and you need to be involved beyond just the big boy chair every four years in November" and that voting third party during the presidential election is wasting a vote because of the (bad) way our election system is structured.

HOWEVER

Getting the votes and support of younger progressives is absolutely the move to make, considering those are the demographics that helped Joe Biden secure the presidency and helped the Democrats tremendously during the 2022 midterms. We have, through the primaries, that tens of thousands of people have said that they don't want to vote for Joe Biden if he continues on the current path. What Biden and the Democrats are currently doing is the thing that always fails: trying to appeal to "moderate" Republicans and conservatives to appear magnanimous and reconciliatory or whatever. Because a Republican is always going to just vote for the Republican candidate, no matter how much they say he has no decorum or makes the party look bad or whatever, and they're going to call Biden a gay communist killing Christmas and transing your children or whatever no matter how much he demonizes immigrants.

Pretty sure it was dead people who helped Biden win. Not young ones.

Alex Jones needs you to go buy some Iodine, buddy.

Accelerationism is becoming very popular with progressives and nothing Biden does will win that group over as they are planning to vote Trump with the hopes he collapses the current political system based on the idea that if it happens, progressives will be the ones to rebuild a new democracy.

Others worked themselves into believing a Trump win would be better for Palestine than a second Biden term. I have no idea how they logically worked that out though given Trump publicly said Israel should finish the job, and Kushner is trying to get Israel to keep Palestine out of Gaza so investors can develop it into resorts.

Either way, given how close things are losing progressives should lock up a Trump presidency. Only thing that can turn it the other way is if enough of Trump's supporters vote RFK or died during COVID.

And while progressives claim they have no duty to vote for Biden, they will have to live with the aftermath. And that aftermath is almost certainly GOP coming in with the House and Senate then suspending the filibuster for at least two years to pass things like Trump's national abortion ban, or citizen checks which is basically stop and frisking every minority to make sure they are in the US legally.

Classic cutting off your nose to spite your face.

May 4, 2024 17:57:27 GMT KITN said:

I am very much a proponent of "If you want change, you need to be active and you need to be involved beyond just the big boy chair every four years in November" and that voting third party during the presidential election is wasting a vote because of the (bad) way our election system is structured.

HOWEVER

Getting the votes and support of younger progressives is absolutely the move to make, considering those are the demographics that helped Joe Biden secure the presidency and helped the Democrats tremendously during the 2022 midterms. We have, through the primaries, that tens of thousands of people have said that they don't want to vote for Joe Biden if he continues on the current path. What Biden and the Democrats are currently doing is the thing that always fails: trying to appeal to "moderate" Republicans and conservatives to appear magnanimous and reconciliatory or whatever. Because a Republican is always going to just vote for the Republican candidate, no matter how much they say he has no decorum or makes the party look bad or whatever, and they're going to call Biden a gay communist killing Christmas and transing your children or whatever no matter how much he demonizes immigrants.

The one-sentence TL;DR of my response is that I'm not convinced going chasing progressive votes outweighs potential losses of moderate Dem votes.

An Undecided vote in the primary could mean anything. It could mean 'we want the US to stop giving Israel weapons' to 'we want the US to stop funding Israel in any capacity, since giving them food frees up their food budget which they could use for weapons' to 'we believe Israel should not exist in any capacity.'

Plenty of current, high-up Dems believe Israel should exist, and presumably catering to one vote might lose the other. So how far should leftists want to push this?

Same with student debt forgiveness; the movement for some bizarre reason has chosen to highlight the stupidest examples like someone who made it all the way through med school only to discover he doesn't like the sight of blood and that is why he's a waiter or a (Jacobin? Intercept? Something similar) writer who went to law school, has a functioning law degree but is a web site writer because making money in corporate law is working for the Man, man and that is why he needs money to pay down his student loans. And the ones who push against means testing, sure any household who makes over $250k should also have every penny forgiven please don't pay attention to my paycheck or that I am now competing against you in the housing market with a giant boat anchor removed in the assets:liabilities area

like, find me the moderate Dem who supports cutting the cost? Sure. A leftist who wants to forgive every penny, including theirs? All or nothing, I'd begrudingly vote yes because of who else it could help but it would absolutely cost the Dems votes from other part of their constituency.

Yeah it is weird as fuck. The assumption originally was they would suck it up and vote Biden in the end, but now attitude is Biden is worse than Trump.

They are raging that the Biden campaign distanced and made it clear they will not be held captive to the activists. Even Bernie distanced. When you are calling out Bernie as old guard traditionist, really think you lost the plot. Not seen the Squad divest, but they are expected to move away from the activists as well.

Tried talk about these kids elsewhere but people thought I was making shit up. These activists literally consider like anything left of arachno-socialism right wing though. Democratic socialism is too right wing for them.

I think debt forgiveness is no longer a progressive issue. A lot of free college options these days.  They are all in on completely divestment of Israel as a single issue. That is their platform entirely. Cancel all defense and economic agreements with Israel, bar them from lobbying the US and pull our forces from the region.

Really makes me wonder if this all was fueled by propaganda as if they get their way, Iran will invade Israel and the whole middle east will destabilize and go to war. Which will likely end with China taking over the region through defense deals as many of these countries are part of their belts and roads project.

May 4, 2024 17:41:40 GMT Michinokudriver said:

May 2, 2024 23:43:38 GMT KITN said:

Hey, maybe the impetus is on the incumbent party and the most powerful man on the planet to do things that would make people want to vote for them rather than trying to shame your base into being good little vote-piggies and hold their noses and vote for Democrats who do less than nothing because the Bad Man will be worse.

ilu dearly but Progressives are not the base. TBH I'm not entirely sure who the base is, but as far back as I can remember it's always been like herding cats and I'm not sure there is a singular THE base but I'm reasonably sure progressives don't have the numbers to call themselves the base.

This also discounts things Dems have been doing, like student debt forgiveness and, at the state level, shoring up abortion rights where it can.

Plus - I have no idea how the madman did it - breaking a union railroad strike, then going back and getting the union the paid sick days they'd been striking for in the first place.

If Progressives (I'm just kindasorta figuring that's where you're coming from, since that's the crowd I most hear 'earn my vote' from) want real power in the Dem party, they have to show up. All the time, at all the levels, not just at voting time. Joe Biden was once a city council member, possibly-future POTUS candidate Gavin Newsom is now a governor, before then a mayor, before that he was a city board member and before that was appointed to like the parking commission.

Run for things. Run for ALL the things. Run for school board. Run for state controller. Run for non-government but still important things like the local DCCC, because today's state assembly member is tomorrow's senator is next decade's Presidential candidate. And while not all of them will be Presidential candidates, a bunch will still be senators and even more will be in the state legislatures. That's how things get done.

Forgive my ignorance, but should the base for the Dems be the Trade Unions and working class people? In my country the left hand the same base but I'd at risk of losing it.

The more the left embrace the progressives the more they jeopardise the base.
Secure borders
Lower cost of living
Job security


These would be seen as the traditional positions of Democrats.
Protecting the workers of the country, but now they are the tax and spend party, but not spending on those paying all the taxes.
Don't underestimate people's weariness at being the piggy bank that is always raided for ideological reasons.

You could just call the disaffected people deplorables, but that didn't work out so well last time.

Cost of living increases with less asylum seekers. They are willing to work for subminimum day rates under the table and do jobs that most people will simply not work for the pay that is being offered. And without this cheap labor, businesses would be forced to close, taking higher paying jobs with them.

Look at what happened during Covid when we closed the border. Small business failed at record rates and all screamed "no one wants to work anymore." We open the border again and suddenly they got cheap labor to fill those jobs.

Granted some states seem to believe they can get rid of migrant workers by simply using child labor, and are pushing for allow them to work 8 hour shifts after school in industries like agriculture, meat packaging, factories, warehouses or whatever else they can keep them out of sight.  They can see over the steering wheel they can drive a forklift or plow.

Late this year but Canada entered the race finally.

I’m not even watching that, because Canada should absolutely keep their eyes on their own homework right now.

Related to the election pattern emerging of GOP lawmakers refusing to say they will accept the results of the election if Trump loses. Very likely if Trump loses, they will try the legal coup they demoed in 2020, that the riot cooled most of them on. Unlikely any of the election fraud cases will be heard before the election in regards to fake electors, and they can always get a new team of idiots to sign on to commit election fraud.

RFK Jr reports that doctors had found a worm in his brain that they claim is now dead.  He also had mercury poisoning prior, another situation that damages the brain.  Reported he started to have cognitive damage in 2012, which was about the time his views started to shift to more extreme things like vaccine denial.

www.nytimes.com/2024/05/08/us/rfk-jr-brain-health-memory-loss.html

Every time Hilary Clinton goes on TV and tells people to shut up and Pokemon Go To the Polls, Biden goes down twenty points.

Hill was not wrong. Tik tok is not really a great place to get information about complex situations. But is a great place for propaganda. There is a ton of Russian and Chinese propaganda on there the US been tracking for years.

It is not unique in social media spaces as they hit all big platforms, but noticed the left feels it is immune to propaganda, which is def not true. Been a lot of war footage from palestine that went viral that occured before the Hamas invasion, or happened outside Israel.  People tend to believe propaganda that confirms their views though.  

It is a problem we will have to address sooner or later, regardless of whether or not we ban tik tok.

May 5, 2024 6:24:01 GMT c said:

Cost of living increases with less asylum seekers. They are willing to work for subminimum day rates under the table and do jobs that most people will simply not work for the pay that is being offered. And without this cheap labor, businesses would be forced to close, taking higher paying jobs with them.

Look at what happened during Covid when we closed the border. Small business failed at record rates and all screamed "no one wants to work anymore." We open the border again and suddenly they got cheap labor to fill those jobs.

Granted some states seem to believe they can get rid of migrant workers by simply using child labor, and are pushing for allow them to work 8 hour shifts after school in industries like agriculture, meat packaging, factories, warehouses or whatever else they can keep them out of sight.  They can see over the steering wheel they can drive a forklift or plow.

Not really though, of you looks at the breakdown of voting habits by wages you will see that lower income brackets heavily favour the Democrats. With work permits being handed to these immigrants there are going to be downwards pressure on entry positions. If that bites before the election these people won't come out to vote.

The love affair with illegal immigration is a quirk of the left that is beginning to bite it on the ass.

Migrants do not work the same entry level positions that natives do. Migrants work dish washing and construction, not shit like clerical work or data entry.

May 10, 2024 22:06:12 GMT c said:

Migrants do not work the same entry level positions that natives do. Migrants work dish washing and construction, not shit like clerical work or data entry.

Except now there's hundreds of thousands more of them.

Funny that the majority of them end up in California though in recent months, and no crisis is appearing despite California even granting them healthcare.  Crises in states that get a fraction of what Cali is getting means this is matter of governing not immigration itself.