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Post by System on Aug 23, 2021 2:35:49 GMT
Every day I have this conversation with someone online that we are past the point of containment and they think I’m just being negative. Then the next day they see the case numbers and are shocked. Why I like numbers, they are objective. And rather than be negative this should be a wake up call that the head start to get the healthcare systems in place for a widescale outbreak are almost up. And I suspect that the country banking on lockdowns and waiting out the pandemic has not ramped up emergency care capacity. Having the capacity to treat everyone who will likely get sick should be a serious concern people have right now. You all seen what happened in most of the rest of the world, if it happens there despite the lockdowns the government will be entirely to blame. I’ve been in emergency twice recently and they definitely are not prepared, at least where I am. combined with a lot to GPs doing over the phone appointments only so heaps of people are going to the emergency department thinking they can get a standard consultation and puzzled as to why the staff workers are furious with them and sending them away 🤦🏻♀️
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Legend
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Post by nath45 on Aug 23, 2021 3:30:37 GMT
"Prime Minister Scott Morrison has declared Australia must move to end the lockdowns once the vaccination rate hits 70 per cent declaring a new dawn of greater freedoms is not far away.
Bluntly warning that state premiers we cannot “stay in the cave forever”, the Prime Minister has warned Australians must accept greater daily case numbers when the economy reopens."
Interestingly, Daniel Andrews basically said two days ago "70%, 80%.. it doesn't matter. I'll do what I feel is right"
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God
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Post by iNCY on Aug 23, 2021 3:42:31 GMT
There is a BS narrative pushed on Sydndey since their outbreak You should have gone harder and earlier... Except we did, in Melbourne we went into a lockdown as soon as the cases were discovered. The issue is that to contain Delta you would need 100% compliance from 100% of the population and that just doesn't happen with anything. With that sort of compliance you would still see transmission amongst essential workers, it is a mess. Even in total lockdown the case numbers in Melbourne and Sydney have an R0 of about 1.2-1.3 which make it impossible for case numbers to go down. Could you have went harder? People are rioting in the streets at the current level of lockdown and a group of alt right radicals are growing by the day. There are ways to have went harder in theory, particularly grid based measures and locking down neighborhoods with martial law Wuhan style when a grid is infected, but given the anger currently, there is no way the people would have accepted that. To go harder really was to implement a full blown police state. And yeah the problem with the current method it is assumed 100 percent compliance behind closed doors. That is not a reasonable assumption for any model and why containment failed I would bet. It really only takes one person to say fuck the rules to bring in an infection. As for starting earlier, like this all started when that girl got delta from the street transmission. How much earlier should you all have started? Maybe could have ramped to a full lockdown faster but with that video it was clear that you were in serious trouble with how fast transmission occured in a situation where it was assumed there would be little risk. That aussie street transmission video should have been a wake up sign that most of the believed assumptions about COVID transmission are not right and was a black swan event for the model of COVID transmission we had. If it can spread by five seconds of sharing an open space, it is likely it will infect buildings and pass through the low quality partially sealed masks most people wear. Even with the hardest lockdowns, it is likely infecting stores, warehouses and apartments. Yet despite all this, the government is promoting a Christmas miracle with COVID going away and no longer being a threat. The real miracle I assume is if any of the government enters an election year with any shot of getting reelected given how angry people are. No, we went as hard as possible in Victoria. We did everything short of welding people in their homes. You cannot actually really lockdown that hard an have society function. What makes Victoria unique is demographics. We have a very high immigrant population centered in the Western and North Western suburbs. The reason they live there is because it is the cheapest part of Melbourne, because it is the primary industrial and commercial hubs. This situation would see the situation where the vast majority of the cases are in these areas and despite the lockdowns, most of the workers are classed as essential. There is no real way to put a lid on it. It is hard for most people to fathom what the size of Australia means for the logistics of manufacture and distribution. Also one of the main reasons why everything is so damned expensive here. "Prime Minister Scott Morrison has declared Australia must move to end the lockdowns once the vaccination rate hits 70 per cent declaring a new dawn of greater freedoms is not far away. Bluntly warning that state premiers we cannot “stay in the cave forever”, the Prime Minister has warned Australians must accept greater daily case numbers when the economy reopens." Interestingly, Daniel Andrews basically said two days ago "70%, 80%.. it doesn't matter. I'll do what I feel is right" Daniels is a political animal and he will slow play this for as long as he can milk it being ScoMo's fault. Today he tried to complain the main issue was vaccine supply while also mentioning 55,000 unfilled vaccination spaces. Can't be both.
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Legend
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Post by nath45 on Aug 23, 2021 4:07:26 GMT
iNCY touches on it. Yes, Australia is big. Its United States of America big. But it's almost sparsely populated beyond it's capital cities. Melbourne has 5.1m people, the next biggest city in Victoria is Geelong with an estimated 263k, with Ballarat being the only other city with more than 100k people in the state out of 79 Victorian LGAs. And even a small state like Victoria (the size of England) is so geographically diverse. With a cool metropolitan and coastal areas in the south, snowy mountain ranges in the East, empty dessert in the west and a mediterranean climate in the north. Now you know the facts, most of it is either state forests or farm land beyond the 79 major cities or towns. Thus why, we can't paint the entire state with one brush.
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Post by c on Aug 23, 2021 4:28:40 GMT
No, we went as hard as possible in Victoria. We did everything short of welding people in their homes. You cannot actually really lockdown that hard an have society function. There was a lot further you could have went if the sole thing that mattered was containment. The grid system exists in public health as the ultimate containment method. Basically you separate everyone in an area into a group based on shared space. For cities you grid to about 200 to 1000 based on density, suburban places about 100, rural about 10. Outbreak occurs, the grid is taken offline, no one in or out, no exceptions until everyone inside tests negative. Food and medical supplies are brought in hazmat and left. Perimeter enforced by armed guards and breaches are met with lethal force. But it is by far the most effective way to contain an outbreak while limiting the freedoms of the majority of the population. Effectively you let dozens die to save thousands and allow society to function with the least disruption. It is utterly heartless though which is why it rarely leave the realm of theory. Believe only Wuhan ever tried this and it was met as well as you would expect on the world stage. But between where you are in Australia now and this is a lot of options that have not been tried moving closer to a grid method. But again, you all are at the breaking point, so realistically, any single added restriction could see people just revolt and refuse to follow any restrictions. And do not see your country using force to keep a lockdown as the world would be pissed. Surprised more Americans are not raging at the lockdowns as it is, as this is the behavior that makes Americans stockpile guns.
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God
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Post by iNCY on Aug 23, 2021 4:37:05 GMT
No, we went as hard as possible in Victoria. We did everything short of welding people in their homes. You cannot actually really lockdown that hard an have society function. There was a lot further you could have went if the sole thing that mattered was containment. The grid system exists in public health as the ultimate containment method. Basically you separate everyone in an area into a group based on shared space. For cities you grid to about 200 to 1000 based on density, suburban places about 100, rural about 10. Outbreak occurs, the grid is taken offline, no one in or out, no exceptions until everyone inside tests negative. Food and medical supplies are brought in hazmat and left. Perimeter enforced by armed guards and breaches are met with lethal force. But it is by far the most effective way to contain an outbreak while limiting the freedoms of the majority of the population. Effectively you let dozens die to save thousands and allow society to function with the least disruption. It is utterly heartless though which is why it rarely leave the realm of theory. Believe only Wuhan ever tried this and it was met as well as you would expect on the world stage. But between where you are in Australia now and this is a lot of options that have not been tried moving closer to a grid method. But again, you all are at the breaking point, so realistically, any single added restriction could see people just revolt and refuse to follow any restrictions. And do not see your country using force to keep a lockdown as the world would be pissed. Surprised more Americans are not raging at the lockdowns as it is, as this is the behavior that makes Americans stockpile guns. That's what you're not getting. The size of Melbourne, the amount that people move around the area for work. It is nothing for someone to drive an hour to work in Melbourne. You go into a grid lockdown and there is no food, no nursing, no medical care. Our state is 100% reliant on its own infrastructure. For sure we could have closed Take-out and delivery of food. But then you force people to the grocery store to shop. Melbourne is the test case for whether Delta can be eliminated or not.
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Legend
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Post by nath45 on Aug 23, 2021 4:54:10 GMT
Not getting? No, ignoring.
Academics, so-called professionals, Politicians and pseudo-intellectuals, etc don't care for those plebs working with their hands and backs.
Locking down a LGA and it's workforce only appeases those who can work from home.
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God
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Post by System on Aug 23, 2021 4:56:15 GMT
When is the next election in Victoria? I feel like literally anyone running against Dan Andrews would win if you any of guys down there want a career change 😅
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Legend
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Post by nath45 on Aug 23, 2021 5:04:01 GMT
When is the next election in Victoria? I feel like literally anyone running against Dan Andrews would win if you any of guys down there want a career change 😅 26 November 2022. There'll be no one left by that stage to run. Or vote.
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God
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Post by System on Aug 23, 2021 5:06:30 GMT
When is the next election in Victoria? I feel like literally anyone running against Dan Andrews would win if you any of guys down there want a career change 😅 26 November 2022. There'll be no one left by that stage to run. Or vote. RIP 😬
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Legend
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Post by nath45 on Aug 23, 2021 5:11:08 GMT
26 November 2022. There'll be no one left by that stage to run. Or vote. RIP 😬 What's scarier is Andrews is now referring to his house as the Eagle's Nest.
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Post by c on Aug 23, 2021 5:38:23 GMT
Not getting? No, ignoring. Academics, so-called professionals, Politicians and pseudo-intellectuals, etc don't care for those plebs working with their hands and backs. Locking down a LGA and it's workforce only appeases those who can work from home. I get it you are diverse. You know like every place in the world. What I am saying is a) your lockdown could have been more restrictive and b) grid containment would work by locking down hundreds of people entirely while giving total freedom to the rest. I refuse to believe that if you lockdown say even 5000 people in a city that Australia fails to function. In the rural regions grid confinement can literally be used on single houses. I also refuse to believe that your lockdown could not be more restrictive, because it clearly could be. Could kill off cross household interaction, cut travel to a single grocery store, invoke martial law to force compliance, ect. Things could be a whole lot worse. Not sure why this is debated, as clearly they can restrict you a lot more if they wished. And why would a model care about plebs? That is not the model's purpose. Also that is not the academics job, that is a job for policy makers who adapt theory for practice use. The reason for the models coming down hard on blue collar workers is because an assumption was placed into the model that they would not be completely complaint with lockdown protocol, so the model should increase recursive protective factors to account for this variance in compliance.
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Legend
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Post by nath45 on Aug 23, 2021 5:44:12 GMT
Could you have went harder? People are rioting in the streets at the current level of lockdown and a group of alt right radicals are growing by the day. There are ways to have went harder in theory, particularly grid based measures and locking down neighborhoods with martial law Wuhan style when a grid is infected, but given the anger currently, there is no way the people would have accepted that. To go harder really was to implement a full blown police "Prime Minister Scott Morrison has declared Australia must move to end the lockdowns once the vaccination rate hits 70 per cent declaring a new dawn of greater freedoms is not far away. Bluntly warning that state premiers we cannot “stay in the cave forever”, the Prime Minister has warned Australians must accept greater daily case numbers when the economy reopens." Interestingly, Daniel Andrews basically said two days ago "70%, 80%.. it doesn't matter. I'll do what I feel is right" Daniels is a political animal and he will slow play this for as long as he can milk it being ScoMo's fault. Today he tried to complain the main issue was vaccine supply while also mentioning 55,000 unfilled vaccination spaces. Can't be both. PM has just stated, State Premiers need to get aligned with national cabinet and the 70-80% vaccination = no lockdown measures. He also stated anyone who thinks continual lockdowns is the answer is not insync with their people. Dandrews has said "70% is less likely" in regards to easing state wide lockdowns. As that 10% is important. Sounds like he'll play operation-lockdown until the end.
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Legend
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Post by nath45 on Aug 23, 2021 6:13:02 GMT
Not getting? No, ignoring. Academics, so-called professionals, Politicians and pseudo-intellectuals, etc don't care for those plebs working with their hands and backs. Locking down a LGA and it's workforce only appeases those who can work from home. I also refuse to believe that your lockdown could not be more restrictive, because it clearly could be. Could kill off cross household interaction, cut travel to a single grocery store, invoke martial law to force compliance, ect. Things could be a whole lot worse. Cross household interaction has been killed off. We can't visit friends or family unless it's in the form of 'care giving' We can only leave home to buy food and supplies, otherwise all non-essential business is shut. For most, this is potentially only a single supermarket depending on location. Also outside of exercise or literally dying, there's no other reason to leave home. And travel, we can't travel beyond 5km from our home. We also need to carry or have access to either or both an essential services letter or permit to work to travel freely to our place of employment. These permits are also being used determine access to child care services. Police helicopters are flying over regional Victoria at night and on the day of beginning of the current lockdown, we saw police cameras set up at the entrance to town, scanning number plates versus registration addresses. Those I personally saw. Heighten police presence and council actively engaging with local business ie; closing non-essential services who can't provide 'click and collect' services. The army has also been engaged in the past to block and hold borders. 300 soldiers commenced patrols in Sydney — knocking on doors to ensure that residents are following strict stay-at-home measures.. So,
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God
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Post by iNCY on Aug 23, 2021 6:25:01 GMT
Not getting? No, ignoring. Academics, so-called professionals, Politicians and pseudo-intellectuals, etc don't care for those plebs working with their hands and backs. Locking down a LGA and it's workforce only appeases those who can work from home. I get it you are diverse. You know like every place in the world. What I am saying is a) your lockdown could have been more restrictive and b) grid containment would work by locking down hundreds of people entirely while giving total freedom to the rest. I refuse to believe that if you lockdown say even 5000 people in a city that Australia fails to function. In the rural regions grid confinement can literally be used on single houses. I also refuse to believe that your lockdown could not be more restrictive, because it clearly could be. Could kill off cross household interaction, cut travel to a single grocery store, invoke martial law to force compliance, ect. Things could be a whole lot worse. Not sure why this is debated, as clearly they can restrict you a lot more if they wished. And why would a model care about plebs? That is not the model's purpose. Also that is not the academics job, that is a job for policy makers who adapt theory for practice use. The reason for the models coming down hard on blue collar workers is because an assumption was placed into the model that they would not be completely complaint with lockdown protocol, so the model should increase recursive protective factors to account for this variance in compliance. I have travelled a lot and seen much of the world, there are few places in the world as diverse as Melbourne and none with the same constraints of geography and supply. You are not understanding that our city is essentially self-sufficient for the distribution of food, electricity, care etc. The guy who used to work for me is a great example of a minority family in the Western suburbs who had 7 adults living in his house: 1 x Travelling technician (Essential) 1 x McDonalds worker (Essential) 2 x Aged Care nurses (Essential) 1 x Registered nurse in hospital (Essential) 1 x Store person in food distribution (essential) They worked all over Melbourne. This is the issue we face, all delivery drivers, couriers etc. Once the virus seeds in the community you are cooked. The only way to stay at zero community transmission would be to lock down before you have the first case... Then what is the point to it? Delta is at least 50 per cent more infectious than Alpha, and twice as infectious as the virus that first came out of Wuhan in late 2019. Each person who caught that original virus infected about two or three other people – for Alpha that “reproduction number” or R0 was four to five. Delta’s RO is five to eight (higher than smallpox but much lower than measles). It’s about on par with chickenpox, according to the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in the US, exceeding the common cold, seasonal flu and the first two dangerous coronaviruses to emerge in modern times: SARS and MERS. In just two months, Delta replaced Alpha as the dominant strain of COVID in the UK, and it has now spread to about 100 countries, including the US where it has also taken over.The issue with Covid is that people are infectious while Asymptomatic.
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Post by c on Aug 23, 2021 14:20:57 GMT
FDA just approved the COVID vaccine. Shit going to hit the fan in the US as now it is not experimental a whole lot of places are going to mandate vaccination for employers and for customers. Curious if we get vaccination riots.
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Post by Ness on Aug 23, 2021 14:27:34 GMT
And if you thought the worker crisis was bad before...
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Post by System on Aug 23, 2021 14:40:52 GMT
And if you thought the worker crisis was bad before... I’m really curious to know what would happen if a such a huge amount of people refused to get vaccinated and it caused a labor shortage. Watched a Sydney lawyers live today and every third question was relating to someone not wanting the vaccine. I know it’s anecdotal but for every 4 people I’d talk to that wanted to get it I would encounter 12 people that wanted to refuse. Then again the latter are normally the most vocal crowd.
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Post by c on Aug 23, 2021 14:50:02 GMT
This is the US, nothing will happen. Basically will just see labor redistribute again with the unvaccinated moving to jobs they do not need to be vaccinated at. Then when things open up again we fill their old jobs with foreign labor who many companies prefer anyway.
Real curious how long it takes for insurance providers to require the vaccination to continue coverage. I can easily see them refusing to cover treatment if a patient refuses vaccination now. This is what I worry about if unvaccinated, as it would then mean if you get sick, you have to declare bankruptcy.
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Post by Ness on Aug 23, 2021 15:26:08 GMT
Don't most Americans do that even with insurance? <_<
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Post by c on Aug 23, 2021 18:08:17 GMT
Pfizer’s vaccine is now called Comirnaty. Can't wait for the lame ads every ten minutes.
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Post by c on Aug 23, 2021 19:52:31 GMT
Vaccine mandates triggering from a lot of companies today. No more vaccinate or get tested weekly. Not pretty much vaccinate, produce medical paperwork saying you cannot get it or get fired. The medical paperwork saying you cannot be vaccinated also likely means you are fired though, as it will too dangerous to work around people who are vaccinated and not taking safety precautions.
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God
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Post by iNCY on Aug 23, 2021 20:13:53 GMT
And if you thought the worker crisis was bad before... I’m really curious to know what would happen if a such a huge amount of people refused to get vaccinated and it caused a labor shortage. Watched a Sydney lawyers live today and every third question was relating to someone not wanting the vaccine. I know it’s anecdotal but for every 4 people I’d talk to that wanted to get it I would encounter 12 people that wanted to refuse. Then again the latter are normally the most vocal crowd. The states are scared of it here, they were meant to legislate the vaccination of aged care workers. It is a low paid industry and a crappy job that is difficult to attract people to, losing even a small percentage of staff to vaccine mandates would be devastating to resident care. It's an impossible situation.
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God
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Post by System on Aug 24, 2021 4:09:31 GMT
Vaccine mandates triggering from a lot of companies today. No more vaccinate or get tested weekly. Not pretty much vaccinate, produce medical paperwork saying you cannot get it or get fired. The medical paperwork saying you cannot be vaccinated also likely means you are fired though, as it will too dangerous to work around people who are vaccinated and not taking safety precautions. Is the viral load not the same from vax/unvax person?
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Post by c on Aug 24, 2021 4:41:09 GMT
It is supposed to be less for vaccinated people, but with delta unsure. For a US business though, why take the risk of an unsafe workplace lawsuit if you do not have to? To keep the unvaccinated safe, and absolve yourself of liability if they get COVID, if even a single person is not vaccinated you need to do the full safety routine is social distance, masks and what not. With everyone vaccinated you can drop all that as it is not needed with the vaccinations. For those who cannot be vaccinated, it is not really a reasonable accommodation to expect everyone else at a workplace to wear masks to accommodate you, so you be let go with the job saying they cannot find a job for you in a safe work environment given your particular needs given the virus.
All of this was laid out in the court like 100 years ago when the smallpox vaccine was released in the US. So rather than do all of above, you simple now can say it is an employers right to mandate vaccination and if you do not do it you are fired. ADA accommodations get weird, but people who cannot be vaccinated with a doctor signing off on it, generally will not be medically cleared to work as if they get any infection it kills them.
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God
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Post by iNCY on Aug 24, 2021 10:27:40 GMT
Move over California, there's a new villain in town:
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Post by c on Aug 24, 2021 10:44:43 GMT
Good thing no reasonable person would watch that video and believe anything he is saying.
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Post by c on Aug 24, 2021 12:24:51 GMT
Merica baby! Also, this shows why I love NYC. Total fucking blender of people. Everywhere else is kind of boring in comparison. Pity they tamed NYC down as it used to be a lot wilder too.
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God
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Post by System on Aug 24, 2021 12:32:38 GMT
Video unavailable in my country, what is the video of c ?
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Post by c on Aug 24, 2021 13:09:53 GMT
Jordan Klepper at the NYC anti-vax rally.
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