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Post by c on Nov 26, 2020 12:23:15 GMT
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Post by c on Nov 26, 2020 13:29:10 GMT
Oxford Vaccine trials got nailed for questionable researcher practices, HARKing being the most concerning. Essentially, there was a manufacturing error and some people did not get the proper dose. Turns out the improper dose was the one with 90% effectiveness while the planned dose had only 62% percent. Not sure they can pass peer review with this result as HARKing, or hypothesizing after the results are known, is considered an unethical research practice since it capitalizes on happenstance and not science. Also the way they are calculating effectiveness is considered parameter hacking, or presenting results in the manner that best suits your hypothesis rather than in the most suitable manner. Essentially, their study will not pass peer review for a top journal right now without starting a new trial from the beginning. www.nytimes.com/2020/11/24/world/what-we-know-about-astrazenecas-head-scratching-vaccine-results.html
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Legend
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Post by 🤯 on Nov 26, 2020 14:06:19 GMT
Oxford Vaccine trials got nailed for questionable researcher practices, HARKing being the most concerning. Essentially, there was a manufacturing error and some people did not get the proper dose. Turns out the improper dose was the one with 90% effectiveness while the planned dose had only 62% percent. Not sure they can pass peer review with this result as HARKing, or hypothesizing after the results are known, is considered an unethical research practice since it capitalizes on happenstance and not science. Also the way they are calculating effectiveness is considered parameter hacking, or presenting results in the manner that best suits your hypothesis rather than in the most suitable manner. Essentially, their study will not pass peer review for a top journal right now without starting a new trial from the beginning. www.nytimes.com/2020/11/24/world/what-we-know-about-astrazenecas-head-scratching-vaccine-results.html Todd, what say you? You're my favorite devil's advocate for the science and research stuff.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 26, 2020 14:48:20 GMT
It's all a bit of a circus from AstraZeneca, to be frank. They'll find it difficult to publish the findings inclusive of the 90% effectiveness dose, because as c says, it was not part of the planned trial. What will likely happen is they will withdraw it and publish the paper only with the 62% dose, which will get past peer review. But then they're faced with two problems - will anyone take the vaccine in the first world if the RNA vaccines are far more effective, and who is going to line up for a 60% effective jab when it may be 90% if the dosage is tweaked? What a mess - not good at all.
Derek Lowe, the usual bearer of cynicism, is surprisingly upbeat about it. He think there's a real chance that the low-dose/high-dose is genuinely better for the immune system. The question is going to be - were there enough cases of coronavirus in the low-dose group that have a reasonable confidence level? We don't know at this stage.
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Post by c on Nov 26, 2020 14:59:00 GMT
What they will likely do is to use this first study to establish safety and do a very targeted pre-registered study now for the proper dosage. Safety needs the super large numbers not effectiveness. I mean they already know the dose works so they can literally lock methods down before they start a second trial. Pre-registration is the new gold standard.
The low dose is likely effective and the number is good enough to establish it, but for a confirmatory study post the metascience movement in academic publishing it is now good enough since they HARKed.
They still have a very real practical advantage to their vaccination in it does not need to be refrigerated so most of the world will still benefit from this one and running a second study is not hard, just time consuming. If they can go wide with it and do a multilab study they can do it fairly quickly. Multilab gives some research benefits as well since they will use the larger study to show safety.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 26, 2020 15:11:11 GMT
So apparently they alerted the regulator (US) in June that a large number of participants had received the wrong dosage. The regulator allowed them to do this as a separate arm to the existing trial. The US trial, which is largely still in progress, is mostly testing the more effective dosage. This is according to a scientific forum, I can't find a source for it, but it may explain why Oxford were so forthright in their presser. I did find it odd that they were almost flaunting the fact that they'd stumbled across this discovery. My best guess would be that with the US in the current state that it's in, Oxford are confident those trial results will be in soon, possible by the time the safety window has passed. All very speculative, we need more data from Oxford.
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Post by c on Nov 26, 2020 15:47:58 GMT
To get FDA approval they do not need to pass peer review standards. They just need to show it works and is safe. They can totally break apart a large study and do that. For peer review we are stopping this practice as it has issues when unethical researchers apply it to social constructs and more abstract measurements. For something like a vaccine it either works or it does not and we can see clearly which it is.
They can still publish everything too if they include honesty the total effects and subsects effects. They just cannot lead with 90% effective. Given 99.99% of people will never read the actual papers does not really effect things that much. Also again, even if it is not 90% effective in the end, for places that will have issues moving frozen vaccines, even at the floor of 62% it is still far better than nothing.
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Post by c on Nov 26, 2020 18:22:35 GMT
I am by no means a fan of lockdowns either as I realize the money is going to have to be made up somehow (likely off the backside of what's left of the middle class), but I don't know another option that is proving as effective. Wasn't your recent one there fairly successful in culling the numbers in some areas to 0?
I'd really like to know how some countries with similar populations or higher were able to do it. Is it that we've got more idiots than I care to admit saying this is the governments way to force us into dictatorship and comparing this to the Hitler regime. They are asking you to sit on your couch and work from home if you can. Hardly comparable to Auschwitz. When this is as oppressed as you've ever felt in your life that is privilege. Countries that had the highest compliance and fastest lockdowns eradicated the virus the fastest. Simple math really, the less people interacting the slower the spread of the virus. But everyone has an reason for why they should interact with others in many places, so lockdowns are not enacted or when they are they are ignored. North America simply waited too long to lockdown, then too many ignore the rules so it spread like wildfire from the multiple introduction points and has not stopped spreading. US is unlikely to support any national effort to control the virus either, which means at least we will be plague infested for a while to come. Predicting years here.
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Legend
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Post by 🤯 on Nov 27, 2020 16:07:06 GMT
Ness, Hopping on your bandwagon. My sister just got her positive test results back today. She lives alone and has been working remotely for months, so she's in shock over how she might've gotten it. She lives in an apartment building, so I'm guessing shared common areas or the ventilation System? Regardless, she seems not too happy with the news. Also, Wife's cousin got it too... But she's got bigger fish to fry being trapped in an abusive marriage and all to a hard-R who doesn't believe corona is a thing while simultaneously believing if he beats his wife hard enough she'll stop believing in corona too.
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Post by c on Nov 28, 2020 5:30:22 GMT
US travel at a 9 month high. People want to see what no lockdown does, follow the US over the next two weeks.
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Post by RT on Nov 29, 2020 0:43:29 GMT
Canada doesn't want to be left out of the idiot loser party:
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Post by c on Nov 29, 2020 2:48:17 GMT
Another successful US export!!! Open the border!!!
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Post by nath45 on Nov 29, 2020 5:06:30 GMT
You know that one guy at work, who comes to work sick? America is that guy.
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Post by iNCY on Nov 29, 2020 5:49:44 GMT
You know that one guy at work, who comes to work sick? America is that guy. Funny how quickly times change, when I was a young fella oh so many moons ago, to take time off work for a cold or something like that would see you labelled as a "soft *insert derogatory name for female genitalia*" Even before Covid there was a real culture change where coming to work sick would see you labelled as a leper. Anyone see the JOHN Hopkins report before it got taken down about how there is not a large spike of deaths compared to normal? I didn't see it, only heard about it.
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Post by Gyro LC on Nov 29, 2020 6:17:07 GMT
You know that one guy at work, who comes to work sick? America is that guy. Funny how quickly times change, when I was a young fella oh so many moons ago, to take time off work for a cold or something like that would see you labelled as a "soft *insert derogatory name for female genitalia*" Even before Covid there was a real culture change where coming to work sick would see you labelled as a leper. Anyone see the JOHN Hopkins report before it got taken down about how there is not a large spike of deaths compared to normal? I didn't see it, only heard about it. I think people/managers realized that although they kept the one man-day from the sicko they lost 5 man-days from the people he infected calling out. Although a lot of Americans don't have sick leave or general PTO, so they don't have much of a choice if they want to eat.
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Post by iNCY on Nov 29, 2020 9:19:05 GMT
Funny how quickly times change, when I was a young fella oh so many moons ago, to take time off work for a cold or something like that would see you labelled as a "soft *insert derogatory name for female genitalia*" Even before Covid there was a real culture change where coming to work sick would see you labelled as a leper. Anyone see the JOHN Hopkins report before it got taken down about how there is not a large spike of deaths compared to normal? I didn't see it, only heard about it. I think people/managers realized that although they kept the one man-day from the sicko they lost 5 man-days from the people he infected calling out. Although a lot of Americans don't have sick leave or general PTO, so they don't have much of a choice if they want to eat. Our state government is blaming casual work for the spread of the virus so they're proposing a government levy on business to pay for sick leave for those who are casuals. Except people who are casuals get a loading over full time workers to allow for the fact that they don't get leave. Which is another cost to businesses who often aren't profitable enough to take full time workers. There are no great solutions unfortunately. I don't want the USA slave wage scenario, but I also don't think our antiquated Industrial relations laws will allow most businesses to survive.
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Post by c on Nov 29, 2020 11:25:02 GMT
Incy, that Hopkins report was very controversial and the university retracted it. The guy I talk with in the Epi department there said the professor will likely be let go after the spring semester, and some are demanding she be removed from the university when this semester ends. The school of medicine is pissed it was released. Hopkins retracted the article AND the talk. Her work is being reviewed by the IRB as well, and may be shutdown for ethical violations as the talk was filled with factually incorrect information. Hopkins is getting flack from the major groups they work with and feed into for this. Been in the research area for a while now and I NEVER seen a TALK retracted. Feel bad for her students. Everyone in that applied economics program she oversees is now considered tainted and will have trouble getting jobs in some areas or applying to PhD programs. Article is still up in the internal drive: drive.google.com/file/d/1iO0K75EZAF8dkNDkDmM3L4zNNY0X-Xw5/viewAfter reading it, yeah there will be ethical sanctions filed. Holy shit it is bad and looks fucking horrible for Hopkins to be associated with something like this. This will be a chapter in all books about statistical misuse in the future and model misspecification bias, omitted variable bias and confounding variables bias. Edit: And while typing this got a reply and students in this professor's program are already putting in notice they will be seeking transfers to other universities over this no longer wishing to be associated with Hopkins.
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Post by c on Nov 29, 2020 11:33:09 GMT
Also I am thinking she simply GREATLY misunderstood Justin Lessler's recent research. But she clearly did not read it enough and selectively reported his findings to fit a narrative. Still does not explain why she claims no excessive deaths occured this year when the numbers are clearly out of the confidence intervals for what would be expected. And as the head of the economics program, this is not a mistake you make unless you intend to deceive. hub.jhu.edu/2020/09/01/comorbidities-and-coronavirus-deaths-cdc/
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Post by c on Nov 30, 2020 13:00:51 GMT
Moderna submitting FDA paperwork today for emergency use of their vaccine.
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Post by iron maiden on Nov 30, 2020 15:26:43 GMT
This weekend was a clusterfuck of epic proportions. Because our Premier did not outright ban worship services in person and said only 1/3 occupancy and the rest live stream, everyone went to church as usual assuming they'd be part of the 1/3 only to get turned away by the police which only further fueled the 'you are tromping on my religious rights now as well of my rights and freedoms'. Seriously one video shows them all worshipping on the side of the road (not social distanced). I'm all for going to church but didn't Jesus or God say 'wherever you are, there I am'? Saturday we hit our highest number yet. Alberta is fucked.
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Post by RT on Nov 30, 2020 15:31:28 GMT
Speaking of stupid, we get emailed a screening test every morning that we have to fill out before 8am. One of the listed symptoms is runny nose, and I failed my test because I'm congested this morning. Here's the thing though: congestion/runny nose is considered a COVID symptom in Ontario, where our head office is, but not in BC, where I live, so I can't get tested here, but can't go to work either.
The second I hit submit on my form, my boss and half of HR got an email saying I failed and must self isolate and get tested. I replied to my boss and was like "I have allergies, I can't get tested here in BC for a runny nose, I'll wear a mask, what do I do?" And I'm waiting to see what he says.
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Post by iron maiden on Nov 30, 2020 15:37:48 GMT
Speaking of stupid, we get emailed a screening test every morning that we have to fill out before 8am. One of the listed symptoms is runny nose, and I failed my test because I'm congested this morning. Here's the thing though: congestion/runny nose is considered a COVID symptom in Ontario, where our head office is, but not in BC, where I live, so I can't get tested here, but can't go to work either. We have the same issue. Not considered a COVID symptom in Alberta either, so we can't even get that uniform across the country. I get a stuffy nose sometimes because of allergies.
I think they just want you home if you even seem sick which is so ironic because last year I was going to buy a personal containment tent to put around my desk at work because there were so many people hacking and spluttering all the time it was disgusting.
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Legend
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Post by RT on Dec 1, 2020 3:51:51 GMT
Speaking of stupid, we get emailed a screening test every morning that we have to fill out before 8am. One of the listed symptoms is runny nose, and I failed my test because I'm congested this morning. Here's the thing though: congestion/runny nose is considered a COVID symptom in Ontario, where our head office is, but not in BC, where I live, so I can't get tested here, but can't go to work either. The second I hit submit on my form, my boss and half of HR got an email saying I failed and must self isolate and get tested. I replied to my boss and was like "I have allergies, I can't get tested here in BC for a runny nose, I'll wear a mask, what do I do?" And I'm waiting to see what he says. If anyone's wondering my boss called me to make fun of me. He suggested that I take some allergy medicine before filling out my form tomorrow. That's why they pay him the big bucks.
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Post by iron maiden on Dec 1, 2020 3:56:25 GMT
Speaking of stupid, we get emailed a screening test every morning that we have to fill out before 8am. One of the listed symptoms is runny nose, and I failed my test because I'm congested this morning. Here's the thing though: congestion/runny nose is considered a COVID symptom in Ontario, where our head office is, but not in BC, where I live, so I can't get tested here, but can't go to work either. The second I hit submit on my form, my boss and half of HR got an email saying I failed and must self isolate and get tested. I replied to my boss and was like "I have allergies, I can't get tested here in BC for a runny nose, I'll wear a mask, what do I do?" And I'm waiting to see what he says. If anyone's wondering my boss called me to make fun of me. He suggested that I take some allergy medicine before filling out my form tomorrow. That's why they pay him the big bucks. Can't get anything past him. :suspic:
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Post by c on Dec 1, 2020 4:19:32 GMT
Rhode Island using field hospitals now. In Dec.
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Post by iNCY on Dec 1, 2020 8:38:30 GMT
Speaking of stupid, we get emailed a screening test every morning that we have to fill out before 8am. One of the listed symptoms is runny nose, and I failed my test because I'm congested this morning. Here's the thing though: congestion/runny nose is considered a COVID symptom in Ontario, where our head office is, but not in BC, where I live, so I can't get tested here, but can't go to work either. The second I hit submit on my form, my boss and half of HR got an email saying I failed and must self isolate and get tested. I replied to my boss and was like "I have allergies, I can't get tested here in BC for a runny nose, I'll wear a mask, what do I do?" And I'm waiting to see what he says. If anyone's wondering my boss called me to make fun of me. He suggested that I take some allergy medicine before filling out my form tomorrow. That's why they pay him the big bucks. You should congratulate him on being Covid immune. You don't even need a mask when your head is that far up your own ass.
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Post by c on Dec 1, 2020 23:28:27 GMT
If Biden wins the election people will call 911 and no one will answer. Meanwhile in Trump's America Idaho just announced 911 will decline all calls without an immediate threat to life due to the overload from COVID cases.
Arizona, Texas, Oklahoma, Flordia and Wisconsin will not treat or treat last people with preexisting conditions, the elderly or those with poor outcomes.
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Post by pduh on Dec 2, 2020 2:09:11 GMT
Just find out now that my cousin who I haven’t talked to for was tested positive for Cvoid
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Post by 🤯 on Dec 2, 2020 2:39:40 GMT
Just find out now that my cousin who I haven’t talked to for was tested positive for Cvoid The hits just keep on coming to pduh's friends and family.
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Post by c on Dec 2, 2020 10:54:33 GMT
UK authorized the COVID vaccine for emergency use.
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