That is also true. The US and UK are now below the excess death line, which will be a curious phenomenon that may hang around for a couple of years. India, and Brazil are trending upwards explosively.

Apr 29, 2021 15:26:23 GMT Todd said:

That is also true. The US and UK are now below the excess death line, which will be a curious phenomenon that may hang around for a couple of years. India, and Brazil are trending upwards explosively.

Do you buy the Western deaths from Covid though?
If a 90yo test positive for Covid and dies of a heart attack, is that a Covid death?

I would say the rise in deaths in India is for the same reason as the USA. Poor healthcare and people wandering around with untreated and undiagnosed health issues.
The Sweden model kind of points to the same.

If a 90yo tests positive for lung cancer and dies of respiratory failure, is that a cancer death?

So we saw my brother on the 23rd.  He tested positive on the 26th.  Mom and I tested negative on the 27th.  However, I feel like balls today. I have sinus headache and I'm stuffed up, plus I just feel terrible overall. Mom said she isn't feeling great either. Neither of us have a fever - we 'think', as we apparently don't have a thermometer anymore. Maybe psychosomatic. Maybe allergies. Maybe not.

We get re-tested Monday, but how likely is it that we would have tested negative and then developed symptoms?

Apr 29, 2021 14:57:51 GMT Todd said:

Apr 29, 2021 12:14:16 GMT NATH45 said:

For all the hoo-haa about India, The United States has had nearly double the cases and nearly 3x the death toll.

You'd be a fool to trust those Indian numbers. The only statistic useful for determining death toll is excess deaths per capita, and there is no information available for India. The US is outside the top 20 in this metric, although they are still quite high relative to most other countries.

Britain and America have had a lot of criticism for disastrous death tolls, but neither are close to the worst deaths per capita. There is so much variance in how countries report data. And it isn't necessarily the countries lying (well, Russia are lying but they lie about everything), some of these countries do not have the health system to even track Covid deaths let alone manage them. India is one such example. They cannot cope with this. I'm very fearful that the Indian snowball isn't close to stopping rolling yet. It's horrendous.

In a month's time, we'll be taking about the 'Indian strain'

These guys love a plane flight and with families all over the world, I wouldn't be surprised to read an article linking a breakout to an Indian traveller making a quick trip home to see the family and return a positive result back in the US or UK, or an example here last week in Australia - shutting down half the country.

Apr 29, 2021 17:42:41 GMT iron maiden said:

So we saw my brother on the 23rd.  He tested positive on the 26th.  Mom and I tested negative on the 27th.  However, I feel like balls today. I have sinus headache and I'm stuffed up, plus I just feel terrible overall. Mom said she isn't feeling great either. Neither of us have a fever - we 'think', as we apparently don't have a thermometer anymore. Maybe psychosomatic. Maybe allergies. Maybe not.

We get re-tested Monday, but how likely is it that we would have tested negative and then developed symptoms?

False negatives aren’t incredibly uncommon, at least depending on the test.

Apr 29, 2021 17:42:41 GMT iron maiden said:

So we saw my brother on the 23rd.  He tested positive on the 26th.  Mom and I tested negative on the 27th.  However, I feel like balls today. I have sinus headache and I'm stuffed up, plus I just feel terrible overall. Mom said she isn't feeling great either. Neither of us have a fever - we 'think', as we apparently don't have a thermometer anymore. Maybe psychosomatic. Maybe allergies. Maybe not.

We get re-tested Monday, but how likely is it that we would have tested negative and then developed symptoms?

Assuming you caught it, 30% I believe.

Then likely just allergies or psychosomatic. Thanks guys.

Apr 29, 2021 17:06:59 GMT c said:

If a 90yo tests positive for lung cancer and dies of respiratory failure, is that a cancer death?

Yes, they died of cancer.
But what if a a 90yo tests positive for lung cancer, contracts Covid-19 and dies of respiratory failure?

Given COVID restricts respiration, yes. They were at risk of dying if they contracted covid, get covid and die. That would be a death caused by covid as it was the event that precipitated the transition from being stable to being dead, just as covid does in patients with bad hearts.

I can see where iNCY is coming from. Would some of these people have died if they had not caught Covid? Almost certainly. But as c alludes to, there is really no other way to report it. For this reason, excess death count is the best barometer. Take the world's richest countries, they have all essentially over-reported:

UK - 150k Covid deaths, 122k excess deaths
France - 94k Covid deaths, 75k excess deaths
Germany - 75k Covid deaths, 54k excess deaths
Canada - 14k Covid deaths, 14k excess deaths
Sweden - 13k Covid deaths, 10k excess deaths
Switzerland - 10k Covid deaths, 9k excess deaths
Israel - 6k Covid deaths, 4k excess deaths
Japan - 6k Covid deaths, 8k fewer deaths
Denmark - 2k Covid deaths, 0 excess deaths

This makes sense when you consider the profile of Covid, that it discriminates highly against older, less healthy people. America is pretty much the only highly wealthy nation to report fewer Covid deaths than excess deaths which makes sense with no nationalised healthcare and high wealth inequality.

Oh and if you want a laugh:

Russia - 87k Covid deaths, 458k excess deaths

How is excess death calculated?

I ask only because this year’s increase of quarantining and mask use presumably also led to fewer than normal deaths to other communicable diseases like influenza.

Apr 30, 2021 17:30:57 GMT mikec said:

How is excess death calculated?

I ask only because this year’s increase of quarantining and mask use presumably also led to fewer than normal deaths to other communicable diseases like influenza.

Deaths above the per year average of the last five years.

And you're absolutely right about your point about influenza. It isn't surprising that something less contagious like flu that spreads in a similar way was virtually halted. No statistic is perfect, but excess death at least illustrates what the overall impact of the pandemic has been from a mortality standpoint.

The movie theater well one of them is finally reopen today for 25% capacity yeppie

Apr 30, 2021 13:10:38 GMT Todd said:

I can see where iNCY is coming from. Would some of these people have died if they had not caught Covid? Almost certainly. But as c alludes to, there is really no other way to report it. For this reason, excess death count is the best barometer. Take the world's richest countries, they have all essentially over-reported:

UK - 150k Covid deaths, 122k excess deaths
France - 94k Covid deaths, 75k excess deaths
Germany - 75k Covid deaths, 54k excess deaths
Canada - 14k Covid deaths, 14k excess deaths
Sweden - 13k Covid deaths, 10k excess deaths
Switzerland - 10k Covid deaths, 9k excess deaths
Israel - 6k Covid deaths, 4k excess deaths
Japan - 6k Covid deaths, 8k fewer deaths
Denmark - 2k Covid deaths, 0 excess deaths

This makes sense when you consider the profile of Covid, that it discriminates highly against older, less healthy people. America is pretty much the only highly wealthy nation to report fewer Covid deaths than excess deaths which makes sense with no nationalised healthcare and high wealth inequality.

Oh and if you want a laugh:

Russia - 87k Covid deaths, 458k excess deaths

This is where I am coming from.
I expect the rolling four year average in most countries to remain pretty consistent.
Meaning most of those who died of Covid would have probably died in the next couple of years anyway.
Not saying it's a tragedy, only that it is hating the inevitable.
If you look at the average age of Covid deaths they sit about where life expectancy was generally only a few years ago.

Time for sink or swim honestly.

So what's next and when now that we're done with corona?

I get my first Moderna shot tomorrow!

May 1, 2021 2:10:49 GMT CM Punk'd said:

I get my first Moderna shot tomorrow!

Better get it steppin @ness

Fucking shot knocked me on my ass hard. Only first dose...

May 1, 2021 2:10:07 GMT 🤯 said:

So what's next and when now that we're done with corona?

Now we wait for one of the mutations that resists antibodies to spread.  Several countries, US included, will continue to serve as mutation spots for several years.

May 1, 2021 3:57:31 GMT c said:

May 1, 2021 2:10:07 GMT 🤯 said:

So what's next and when now that we're done with corona?

Now we wait for one of the mutations that resists antibodies to spread.  Several countries, US included, will continue to serve as mutation spots for several years.

Ain't that what the 6-12 month booster is to suppose to prevent it from?

That is prevent the weakening of current antibodies in the system. There are a few rare forms of COVID that have not spread but been found in the wild that bypass antibodies. Should one of these spread wide, the vaccination process would be rendered useless.

Guess my nanobots went to sleep already after knocking me out yesterday. Now wait for 4 weeks and get my second shot to activate my 6g coverage.

Looks like DC is laying the framework for the US for post vaccine COVID. Businesses can require vaccination for entry, provided they allow those with medical or religious exemptions from vaccination wears masks instead. So vaccine or mask will likely be the norm in places that care about limiting COVID. Many conservative states already are trying to ban this practice and will just open up, but barring laws, looks like the US will start to just filter out those who refuse the vaccine or make them wear a mask of shame.

I’ll be wearing a mask every flu season from here on out.

May 1, 2021 21:43:49 GMT Gyro LC said:

I’ll be wearing a mask every flu season from here on out.

Funny story.  I was on board with doing this long before COVID.  Every cold and flu season pre COVID I curse when people come in to work sick and spreading their germs around.   I don't chastise them because I understand that they might not have sick days or have young kids so are perpetually sick, and up until COVID, management did not care if you came in sick.  Now you sneeze and risk getting hosed down with Lysol.

Once Christmas I was off for 11 blissful days.  I came back refreshed only to find out that my entire team was sick.  I damn near walked out.  I put a biohazard sign on my office door with a sign that said 'do not enter if sick'.  It seemed to work most people called me, emailed me or spoke to me from the door.

Another time, after I'd moved to the open office, I wore a mask to work because there were more people at work sick than were healthy.  All of them sneezing and hacking all over the place and I GOT IN SHIT FOR WEARING A MASK and trying to keep myself healthy!!!!  My boss said I embarrassed our team, said I was being 'dramatic' and 'ridiculous'.  Who's dramatic and ridiculous now, yo? *mic drop*

I have missed a day a year for being truly to sick to work (at home or otherwise) and frankly, I don't have time to be sick.  It doesn't work for me.  So there have been some benefits to COVID.  One being that SOME employers have seen that work CAN be done from home and are not as willing to have people come in sick to satisfy their misguided sense of productivity. 

May 1, 2021 21:43:49 GMT Gyro LC said:

I’ll be wearing a mask every flu season from here on out.

I would put money on most work places banning this so management can see people's faces more clearly.

Honestly I wouldn't hate if public mask wearing was just something people accepted as a social norm and those that don't are merely seen the same as people who rag against seat belts.

May 1, 2021 23:06:26 GMT @ness said:

Honestly I wouldn't hate if public mask wearing was just something people accepted as a social norm and those that don't are merely seen the same as people who rag against seat belts.

Agreed.  You have no idea if they have underlying health issues or a family member at home they don't want to bring germs home to.

I saw a guy wear a mask on a plane once and people were looking at him like a weirdo.  I wanted to see if he had another one.  

My good friend has a son with CF.  He has not left the house since this started.  She and her ex also have to be super diligent about germs, yet people would judge them for wearing masks before this all started.